00:00So, unlike the NFL, there's going to be no point spread picks in this one.
00:14If you want what I think are the best plays for that, check out the best bets article
00:19over at 3downnation right now.
00:21Article?
00:22Piece?
00:23I never really know what to call it.
00:24I'll tell you, a piece feels very incorrect.
00:31It feels very much like I'm trying to be something that I am not.
00:35And I'm not just looking at stats and hammering out a piece after I do trivia on a Wednesday
00:39night.
00:40But I just linked it in the chat for those of you who are watching live.
00:44That is the 3down piece with my best bets picks for this week in the CFL.
00:50We went perfect last week with a nice little 3-0 mark, and we are actually 6-3 in the last
00:58three weeks.
00:59So, that's how it's going.
01:01But quickly on the CFL, we'll just break these games down a little bit.
01:05Winnipeg is looking like a complete football team.
01:07And it still didn't look perfect in the first half last week against Hamilton, but
01:11boy did it look better in the second half.
01:13And the one thing that I think you can really buy into from a Winnipeg standpoint right
01:18now is how well that defense is playing.
01:21They have been giving up an average of 190 yards through the air in the last three weeks
01:26since the two wild games against Saskatchewan.
01:30They have done a really good job of limiting teams.
01:33Now, that's Edmonton twice and Hamilton once.
01:35So I can understand that maybe there is a bit of a hesitance to like, okay, maybe we're
01:39not taking this team super seriously.
01:41But again, that was Edmonton on their real good run, getting close to a playoff spot,
01:48and Hamilton kind of the same.
01:49Hamilton was on a roll, and then Winnipeg just shut that down last week.
01:53So I think that defense is going to be good enough to limit things for Toronto.
01:56The one thing that gave me the slightest bit of pause on this game is Toronto's defense
02:01has been really good against the run.
02:04And Winnipeg still sets up so much of their offense around Brady Oliveira, and really
02:09tries to get him going, and establishes him as a guy that is the focal point of their
02:15offense.
02:16So they've done a good job.
02:17Like, against Saskatchewan, the Riders were able to bottle him up in the run game, but
02:21he was able to go out and get it done in the pass game.
02:23And so they have still been able to use him in ways that gets him going, and puts them
02:28in favorable situations on second down.
02:30So I think they're going to be able to scheme that up again.
02:32I'm going to go Winnipeg in this game.
02:35Saskatchewan taking on the BC Lions.
02:38If the Lions were playing a style of football that I felt confident in, I would go with
02:43the Lions here.
02:44Whereas Saskatchewan, they do have the three wins in a row.
02:47There's still something missing offensively, but they are at least getting there.
02:51But this defense, they've gotten healthy, and now they're excellent again.
02:56And really putting pressure on quarterbacks, and forcing some very bad decisions.
03:01So it's going to be a really intriguing matchup to see how that one goes.
03:05And I do also think a big part of what Saskatchewan is able to do is their run defense is, I think
03:11it's second best in the league right now.
03:13And that one you can kind of quibble on a little bit, just because Toronto has allowed
03:19the fewest rush yards in the league, and fewest yards per game.
03:22But teams are also running on them the least amount.
03:25And part of that is, well it's not working so why would we keep doing it?
03:28But also, you know, it's just game flow, right?
03:31And how different games go.
03:33So Saskatchewan still has one of the best, one of the best, we'll say, run defenses
03:37in the league.
03:38And if they can limit Stanback, which they've been able to do this year, if they can limit
03:42him and force Roerich into those 2nd and 8th, 2nd and 9th type of situations, those
03:47are the spots where this defense has been able to take advantage of teams and really
03:53force them into turnovers and force them into mistakes.
03:57And so that's where I think Saskatchewan thrives.
03:59And also, I think it's going to be a bit of a quieter game for Stanback.
04:04So we will see.
04:05But the thing that I always tell you to watch, on the Ryder side, is make sure that you see
04:10how this team is calling plays and how they are executing.
04:13If they are able to, because so many times it's just run on 1st down, Harris pass for
04:17the rest on 2nd down.
04:19If it is either Armstead, Ouellette, Hickson, whoever it is in that backfield, if they're
04:24able to get 4, 5, 6 yards on 1st down, this offense runs so much smoother than when it's
04:32the other way and teams have figured it out and now Harris, who is so good at throwing
04:37for 6 yards when you need 8 on 2nd down, we'll see how that goes.
04:41But I do think Saskatchewan, home field advantage and all that as well, get the win.
04:45And they pick up a victory over BC.
04:47Edmonton taking on Calgary, both of these teams aren't very good.
04:51I do think that the Stampeders are just worse right now.
04:55And so that is the main piece of the analysis, is that I think the Stampeders are a worse
05:00football team than the Edmonton Elks.
05:02And so I have to pick Edmonton.
05:03But also, Calgary's run defense is one of the worst in the league.
05:07And the Elks, with Trey Ford in there, they have turned him a bit more into just a passer
05:12this year, but they have been able to run the ball so effectively in games where he
05:16has played, because so much of the focus is on what Trey Ford is going to do, and teams
05:21just forget that others can run the football.
05:24There's a few more stats for that in the 3-down piece there, if you want to check that
05:29one out.
05:30But yes, I just think that Edmonton's strengths match up with Calgary's weaknesses so effectively.
05:38The one stat that is a little bit skewed in this, and I don't believe I put it in the
05:413-down piece, but you look at the turnover differential, and you think that, okay, well
05:46these two teams, they really don't match up.
05:48And the one thing is that, and now, the numbers are skewed because of their matchups together,
05:53so that is the counterpoint to it.
05:55That Edmonton's, Edmonton's turnover differential is boosted by the fact that they got 9 against
06:03Calgary in those two games around Labor Day, so this isn't the ball hawking defense that
06:07those stats would lead you to believe, and I have no idea what the offense looks like
06:10with Schill's under center for Calgary, but I just, I think he's going to have to score
06:14a lot of points to keep up with what Edmonton is going to be able to do.
06:18And on Thanksgiving Monday, it is Montreal taking on the Ottawa Red Blacks, Ottawa has
06:22been just dominated by Montreal's defense this year.
06:26I think that the looks that they show have just completely thrown this offense off, and
06:30whether it is Brown or Massoli under center, turnovers have been a big problem for the
06:35Red Blacks.
06:36I think that continues here.
06:37I think Montreal picks up the dub.
Comments