Breaking down Georgia vs Alabama with Horvat and the numbers nerd

BetMGM Network

Ryan and Brad break down all the angles for Saturday's showdown between Bama and Georgia

Transcript

00:00We got to make some college cash.

00:04It's time for chaos.

00:11It's time for tradition.

00:15It's time to make the college cash.

00:22All right.

00:23We've been doing this throughout the week.

00:25I love playing numbers near

00:27looking at the data from college football insiders,

00:30all the advanced metrics that they provide 100% for free,

00:33which is outstanding, by the way.

00:35So we got other slated games that we haven't even talked about.

00:38The matchup of the entire weekend in which I believe the SEC

00:43states are just going to sink to the bottom of the earth

00:47because this one is colossal, meteoric in its potential.

00:52Hopefully an asteroid is not going to hit the field

00:54and we're not going to have any issues with the lean as well

00:58between Alabama and Georgia there in Tuscaloosa.

01:02Georgia's laid a point a half in this contest.

01:05So looking at the standard spread, a lot of people on Bama plus 105

01:10on the money line.

01:11Yours truly is leaning in that direction.

01:13I haven't fired off a ticket quite yet.

01:15Handicap it for me, Horvath.

01:17What do you got in UGA and Bama?

01:20All right.

01:21So I'm betting Georgia.

01:22But really quick before I get to that, I do got to say I understand

01:24the Alabama love because they're dogs at home for the first time,

01:28I believe, since 1995.

01:29Like Pearl Jam, Nirvana, all my favorite bands were still on tour.

01:33Last time Bama was a dog.

01:35And, you know, I mean, they've owned Kirby Smart 4-1 against Kirby.

01:40Bama has since he took over at Georgia as head coach.

01:44And that's kind of why I like Georgia, though.

01:46Also, I just think about Kalen DeBoer, right?

01:50Like his two biggest wins last season.

01:52The reason that Washington made a run at the college football

01:56playoff championship was because they knocked off Oregon twice.

02:00And they beat them out of neutral as well in the Pac-12 championship game.

02:04And you think of where Dan Lanning came from.

02:06He came from Georgia.

02:07He was the defensive coordinator there.

02:09Pretty much runs the same defense.

02:11So Kalen DeBoer knows what to expect from that Georgia defense.

02:16And the Georgia defense is good, but it's not as good as it was

02:19three, four years ago, right?

02:21Like when Kirby was winning those championships.

02:23They're really young.

02:24They got a lot of new pieces this season.

02:26And it's been a weird offseason once again for Georgia.

02:28A lot of moving violations.

02:30The reason I like Georgia here in this game, though, they're battle-tested.

02:33And I like their data point a little bit better than anything

02:36I've seen from Alabama.

02:37Now, Alabama's looked awesome.

02:38Jalen Milrow's been near flawless.

02:40He's only got one turnover-worthy play of the season,

02:42and that was in the opener against Western Kentucky.

02:44But go back to the opener, and you see Georgia beats Clemson 31-3.

02:49And at the time, I didn't think much of it.

02:51I thought, man, Clemson's down.

02:53And I still hate that wide receiver room.

02:57They don't have a wide receiver that could create separation.

02:59Since then, though, look at Clemson, what they've been able to do,

03:02especially on the offensive side of the ball.

03:04I mean, that offense with Cade Klobnik looks much different.

03:06They hung 59 points on NC State and pulled their starters

03:10in the second half of that game.

03:11They hung 66 points on App State.

03:13And I know it's App State, but Cade Klobnik and that offense look much better.

03:16And then you look at who Alabama's faced.

03:18Western Kentucky, Wisconsin, who has maybe one of the worst offenses

03:24in the country right now.

03:25Like, I think Phil Longo's probably looking for work here in a couple months.

03:28And they didn't have Tyler Van Dyke in that game except for one series.

03:31And then South Florida.

03:32And if you go back and you watch the South Florida game,

03:35man, Brown, their quarterback, missed like six touchdown throws.

03:38I don't think – I know, actually, Carson Beck's not going to miss those throws.

03:43Now, he struggled a little bit to create some big-time throws.

03:46You know, this offense, not really explosive.

03:48But one thing is he doesn't turn the ball over.

03:50He doesn't have a single turnover-worthy play this season.

03:53He has seven touchdown passes.

03:54He's probably going to be the first or second quarterback taken.

03:57And I know they're not hitting like a bunch of explosive runs,

03:59but Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier are still averaging at least 3.7 yards

04:03after contact.

04:04And also what I love about Georgia here, one last thing,

04:07is that they're coming off a bye week.

04:09Last time we saw them, they struggled to beat Kentucky.

04:12And Kirby Smart has used every opportunity to rip his team to the press, to the media.

04:19And so they're going to be motivated.

04:21Like if he's doing that to the media, to the public,

04:23think of what practice has been like the last 13, 14 days at Georgia.

04:27I'm not saying like Alabama's out there like, you know, hey, if we lose this one,

04:30we'll still get ice cream after the game.

04:32But, yeah, man, I think this game just means a little bit more to Georgia.

04:35Again, like if they don't lose in the SEC title game to Bama,

04:38they're in the college football playoff last year.

04:40And they're favored by four and a half, five points against Michigan,

04:43the eventual champion.

04:44So I'm going with Georgia, but I do get the Bama love.

04:48Yeah, I'm not going to be seeing anybody at Baskin-Robbins.

04:50I don't think they're for Alabama by any stretch of the imagination for sure.

04:54The numbers news coming out to play right now.

04:57According to the data, they're a college football insiders.

05:00Georgia, number 78 EPA per playoff.

05:02It's number 14 EPA per play defense.

05:04Bama, number five and number seven respectively in offense and defense.

05:08A little bit more balance.

05:10Though both these teams just powerhouses on paper.

05:13The projection, college football insiders.

05:18Alabama, 31.41.

05:20Georgia, 27.25 for a difference of 4.16.

05:27Bama, again, is an underdog in this game.

05:31And they are giving them a 62.32% chance to win straight up on the money line.

05:36The numbers nerd is definitely leaning.

05:39Roll tide in this one at plus 105 there at BetMGM.

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