"Agar Aj IMF Say Agreement Na Hota To Kal Ap Dekhte..." Miftah Ismail's Shocking Revelations

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#imf #imfpakistan #pakistaneconomy #shabbarzaidi #miftahismail #11thhour #waseembadami   "Agar Aj IMF Say Agreement Na Hota To Kal Ap Dekhte..." Miftah Ismail's Shocking Revelations

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00:00You have got two things from the IMF program.

00:04One is that you will get 1.1 billion dollars in a day or two.

00:07It is a program of 7 billion dollars.

00:09But the more important thing that you have got is that you have given a certificate to the world,

00:14from the IMF, that if Pakistan continues the program that we have told in the next three years,

00:20then it will not have a default.

00:22This is the most important thing.

00:24So, the investors all over the world get this confidence.

00:27The lenders and bankers all over the world, who were afraid of giving you money,

00:30will think that the IMF is also saying that it will not have a default for three years.

00:34This means that they can make investments in Pakistan with confidence

00:38and can also lend to Pakistan with confidence.

00:41So, this is what was going on.

00:43If, God forbid, this had not happened,

00:45then you would have seen that there would have been a strange new demand in the dollar market,

00:49in which people would have thought that if the Pakistani rupee defaults,

00:52then people would start buying dollars,

00:54and start sending them abroad.

00:57Right.

00:58And the IMF program came.

01:00This program, as the Prime Minister said, had very strict conditions,

01:04but unfortunately, all the bitterness that was there,

01:06the Prime Minister put it all on the people of Pakistan

01:10and did not take any responsibility.

01:12So, in this budget that came,

01:14he did not try to reduce any expenses.

01:16Continuous expenses also increased by 24%,

01:18while the government itself is saying that inflation will be 12-13%.

01:22Similarly, the government said that the PSDP, Development Expenditures,

01:28they also increased it by more than 60%.

01:30There was no need for that either.

01:32So, all the strictness that was there,

01:36they put it on the people.

01:38Today, in Pakistan, there is a 40% tax on the salaried class,

01:41a 50% tax on business professionals,

01:44and a 55% tax on businesses and corporations.

01:47And in Pakistan, electricity and gas is the most expensive electricity in the Pakistan region.

01:52It is the most expensive electricity in all the rich countries of Pakistan,

01:55or in all the poor countries of Pakistan.

01:58So, we do not see much increase in our revenue or our industry.

02:02So, we do not see growth.

02:04You are not taking taxes, nor are you reducing your expenses.

02:07And the government did not do what was to be reformed.

02:10But anyway, this IMF program was very important.

02:14The government has received two things today.

02:16One is the IMF program.

02:18And as Mr. Shabbar said,

02:20the oil prices have dropped so much that your inflation has decreased.

02:24When I was a minister, for example,

02:26the international barrel of oil used to be $124.

02:30Today, it is $70.

02:32The lowest price in four years, three years.

02:34So, because of that, your petrol is cheaper, LNG is cheaper,

02:38urea is cheaper, DAP is cheaper.

02:40So, the rate at which inflation was increasing,

02:43that is, last year, inflation was increasing at a rate of 28-30 percent.

02:48That is, the flour that was worth Rs.100,

02:50or anything worth Rs.100,

02:52was worth Rs.130 in one year.

02:54So, now it has come to 12 percent,

02:56that it will increase from 130 to 142.

02:59It will increase.

03:00But at least that rate is increasing.

03:02And this pattern is likely to continue in the future.

03:06Yes, absolutely.

03:07I feel that right now,

03:09unless, God forbid,

03:10there is an international war,

03:12or something like that,

03:14I feel that there is a slight recession.

03:16China's demand has slowed down.

03:18Interest rates in America have also decreased.

03:20America's demand has also slowed down.

03:22So, I feel that between $60-$70,

03:24between $70-$75, oil will remain.

03:26And if it remains,

03:27then inflation has decreased in Pakistan.

03:29At the same time, interest rates are also decreasing.

03:31Right, yes.

03:32Because Pakistan has a loan of Rs.70 crores,

03:35out of which Rs.40 crores is local.

03:38Rs.40 trillion.

03:40So, because of that,

03:41our interest will decrease.

03:43When interest rates will decrease,

03:45our debt servicing will decrease.

03:47So, these are two or three good things.

03:49The government has space because of these two things,

03:51so that it can carry out basic reforms,

03:53which it has not done so far.

03:55And what we do every year,

03:56we do it next year.

03:58If you take this loan from the IMF and do this,

04:00that you have left those reforms again,

04:02and said, we will see next year,

04:04then it will be unfair to the country,

04:06it will be unfair to the poverty of the country,

04:08it will be unfair to the people of the country.

04:10And we did not expect those reforms,

04:12at least in the budget,

04:13according to the economic experts.

04:15Now, Mr. Shabbar,

04:16I want to talk to you further,

04:17but first explain to me,

04:18what you said in the last answer,

04:20that on the one hand,

04:21you gave it a good introduction,

04:22that you have got more loans.

04:24And on the other hand,

04:25you are saying that,

04:26brother, we will have to think

04:27for how long we have to take loans

04:28to run the country.

04:29So, then,

04:30how can both these things be right,

04:32the government?

04:33Please explain this.

04:35Look, as Miftah Abbas is saying right now,

04:39that you realize this,

04:42that if this loan was not received,

04:44then we would have reached

04:46almost at the time of default.

04:49So, this is the deferment of default.

04:52You don't think that

04:54there has been any correction from this.

04:57You think that they have guaranteed you

04:59for three years,

05:01that Pakistan will not go to default,

05:04or Diwali will not happen.

05:06So, this,

05:07and seven billion dollars,

05:10is not a very big amount.

05:12The problem is its credibility,

05:15and the problem is its strength,

05:18that when the IMF program

05:20comes to a country,

05:21then it means that

05:24international agencies,

05:25international bodies,

05:27are accepting that

05:28this country will not go to default.

05:31We will maintain its current account.

05:36But it does not say anywhere

05:38that we will improve the conditions of its people.

05:41Try to understand what I am saying.

05:43They don't say this.

05:45They are not saying this.

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