00:00The expected points added historically over the last decade has been way more efficient
00:22for passing the ball than running the ball.
00:24I think what the number was, was the best rushing attack was the equivalent to about
00:30the 17th or 18th best passing attack.
00:33Yeah, in fact, EPA, which is what it says for EPA per play over the last decade since
00:392014, there has not been a single season where running the ball on average adds to your EPA.
00:47It on average is negative EPA for each play.
00:52And for passing the ball, it's relatively been around on average for much of the last
00:56decade, around a half a point or a 0.05 is what it is.
01:02No 0.05.
01:04And typically it would be amazing.
01:05Yeah, no half point would be ridiculous.
01:07But it's something that where you go back, it's the complete opposite end on the negative
01:10specter for running the ball until the last couple of years, we're running has still maintained
01:16down.
01:17And in the last two years, passing has also been negative EPA on average per play.
01:22And that's the first time it's been that way in 10 to 12 years.
01:26And this first week of the NFL season might have seen the full reversal because in the
01:31first week it was negative 0.07 EPA per play to throw the ball and it was even flat, even
01:39for running the ball.
01:40That was Bill Belichick's big week one takeaway, the number of 175 yard passers or less.
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