00:00Hello and welcome to State of the Union, I'm Stefan Grobe in Brussels.
00:10The summer break is almost over and official business at the European institutions is picking
00:15up again, slowly.
00:17One of the stories that kept EU officials busy throughout the summer was Hungary's anti-immigration
00:22government's decision to ease the country's immigration scheme.
00:26Yes, you heard that right.
00:29That immigration scheme allows foreign workers to stay in Hungary for at least two years
00:34and can pave the way towards permanent residency.
00:37Budapest has now relaxed this rule to include nationals from Russia and Belarus.
00:43This week, and not for the first time, Nordic and Baltic countries expressed concern that
00:49such a policy could be a serious security risk for the entire EU.
00:54Here's the foreign minister of Latvia.
00:57There was never Schengen free for Russian diplomats with hostile intention and there
01:01was never Schengen free for possible security breaches by certain countries.
01:08So this is why we take it very seriously as a security risk.
01:12The worry, of course, is that Russian spies and saboteurs could infiltrate the EU and
01:17commit all sorts of crimes.
01:20Budapest dismissed such concerns, saying that the Hungarian scheme was in accordance with
01:24the relevant EU framework.
01:27All this unfolds against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
01:31This week, Russia continued its missile and drone strikes, targeting especially energy
01:36facilities.
01:37Moscow's latest attacks are perceived as an effort to regain control of the conflict,
01:43following Ukraine's recent territorial gains in Russia's Kursk region.
01:48The Ukrainian incursion started on August the 6th and has been surprisingly sustained.
01:54A Swedish TV crew had access to Ukrainian-held Russian territory and produced a rare interview
01:59with Ukrainian soldiers.
02:02Here's what they had to say.
02:24Let's bring in a man now who knows a thing or two about war tactics, retired Lieutenant
02:29General Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, who joins us from Frankfurt.
02:34Welcome to the program.
02:36Thank you very much for the opportunity.
02:38So this Ukrainian operation in Russia is very likely not the beginning of a full-scale invasion.
02:45How would you characterize it?
02:47Does it make any sense from a military point of view?
02:50This counteroffensive that Ukraine has launched in the Kursk direction is, I think, a brilliant
02:56stroke that is changing the momentum of the conflict.
03:00It's also changing the narrative about the inevitable Russian victory.
03:05It's too early to tell how far they plan to go or how long they plan to stay, or if it's
03:11having an effect on Russian operations in the east yet.
03:15But I don't think that this is a standalone operation.
03:18It's part of a larger multi-domain effort by the Ukrainians.
03:23After more than three weeks, we haven't really seen a Russian response.
03:28Why do you think that is?
03:29Are they lacking resources?
03:31Are they lacking a plan?
03:33What's going on here?
03:34Great question.
03:35I think it's attributable to a couple of things.
03:38First of all, on the Russian side, you've got rivalry and hatred between the general
03:44staff and the FSB and the border forces, which are under control of the FSB.
03:49These guys hate each other, and so there never has been much cooperation between them.
03:55We saw that during the Purgosian mutiny.
03:58But also, Putin, of course, this is bad for him to have to deal with this.
04:03And I think he's trying to ignore the Kursk operation, turns it over to FSB.
04:08You guys treat it like a terrorist operation or counterterrorist operation.
04:13So I think he's trying to avoid having to address what is a really significant problem.
04:20Is Russia's military weaker than we all think?
04:24I would say we have continued to overestimate Russian capabilities.
04:29The problem is, because they don't care how many soldiers are killed, that's not a factor
04:36for them to consider.
04:39They still have a lot of people that they can feed into this sort of meat grinder, and
04:44they still have enormous quantities of rockets and glide bombs and missiles that, because
04:51of U.S. and other European government policies, the Ukrainians are not able to strike the
04:58origin of these attacks.
05:00And so Russia still has a lot of fight left in it.
05:05And finally, to what extent does the Ukrainian operation in Russia help the Ukrainians at
05:10the front lines in their own territory?
05:12I think this does a couple of things.
05:15First of all, psychologically, it is a huge morale boost.
05:18I mean, when you've been sitting in the defense getting bombed day after day after day, most
05:24soldiers, they really want to hit back somehow.
05:27If this draws away Russian forces that are currently operating in the east, that should
05:32relieve some of the pressure on Ukrainian forces.
05:35I just can't tell yet how much.
05:37All right.
05:39General Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, thank you so much for
05:43your analysis today.
05:45Thank you for the privilege of being on your program.
05:49And now let's go from one ongoing war in Europe to one that ended a long time ago, at least
05:55for the people of Paris.
05:57This week, the French capital marked the 80th anniversary of its liberation by Allied forces
06:02from Nazi occupation, nine months before the end of World War II.
06:08That day in August in 1944, 1,532 days of nightmare came to an end, as French President
06:16Emmanuel Macron said at the ceremony.
06:19More than 1,400 Parisians lost their lives in street battles during the summer of 1944,
06:25until Allied soldiers, together with French fighting forces, raced to the relief of the city.
06:31The parade led by General de Gaulle, the leader of the Free French, has become an indelible
06:36part of France's collective memory.
06:39De Gaulle's successor Macron then turned back his focus to the present and praised the Olympic
06:45summer of flame and joy, an event Macron said that will still be remembered 80 years from now.
06:54That's it for this edition.
06:55I'm Stephan Grobe.
06:57Have an excellent week.
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