00:00Very recently, statistician Nate Silver, known for his election predictions, said the 2024
00:04presidential election was a toss-up. Though conceded, it was still Trump's race to lose.
00:10Well, with Harris' recent surge and the GOP campaign floundering after Biden's exit,
00:14the tides may be turning in 2024. He recently sat down with Business Insider,
00:19explaining his election prediction models and how he thinks the race is changing,
00:23saying, It's pretty close. It's no longer Trump's election to lose.
00:27It's someone's to seize a moment and grab. Though he adds there is still a lot of time
00:32left in the election and political campaigns ebb and flow, explaining that if this were
00:36November and Harris was surging as she is now, he would call the race in her favor.
00:40But it's still summer. In fact, he expects her to keep climbing in the polls as the convention
00:45is just next week, saying that the September debate will likely be the next reality check
00:50moment and really show who is leading heading into election season proper. And Silver's
00:54predictions seem to be in line with national polling as well. In July, Donald Trump was
00:58ahead of Harris in nearly every national poll. Now most surveys have Harris leading Trump by
01:04one to four points.
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