00:00Hello and welcome to this special broadcast on OneIndia in the series of interviews that
00:06we are doing on OneIndia as the fallout or the impact, the likely impact of the assassination
00:13of Hamas chief Ismail Khanye not in Palestine, not in Gaza, but outside of its borders in
00:21Iran.
00:22Today, we are joined by Professor Hussain Bagchi, he is the co-founder of Ankara Global
00:29Advisory Group.
00:30Professor Bagchi, thank you so much for speaking to OneIndia, sir.
00:34Thank you very much.
00:36Thank you.
00:37Professor, the first question that I want to ask you is the very basic question.
00:43What could be the possible motives behind the assassination of Ismail Khanye in Iran?
00:50Actually, this type of political assassinations conducted by Israeli intelligence service
00:58has been not new.
01:00The difference is, as you rightly pointed out, it is outside of the Palestine territory,
01:05it is in Iran, and it is a very directly targeted attack and his killing is of course a big
01:16blow to Hamas in general because he was one of the prime ministers, negotiator, one of
01:23the international personalities of Hamas, who was also very much welcomed in Turkey
01:30by the Turkish government so many times.
01:34This is another situation now that Israel probably will conduct further this type of
01:45attacks or assassinations for the other political leaders as far as they have the opportunity.
01:54I think when Prime Minister Netanyahu visited America last week and he came back,
02:02and probably he was getting the gift, I would say, the support of American administration
02:09because he was talking not only to President and Deputy President, Vice President, but also
02:16candidate Donald Trump and he was receiving a big ovation in the Congress.
02:23He was, from his body language point of view, very happy there and when he returned back,
02:31he got directly his cabinet and decided probably to attack also Lebanon
02:38and now this political assassination. It is, of course, for Israel, concerning the Israeli
02:46population and people, it is a very high increasing moral now that their people can do
02:54a fight and the government is behind it to punish, if you want, the same attack of Hamas.
03:03But there is a problem. Netanyahu is like somebody who has no stock in the hand in a
03:12village where there are a lot of dogs, so he is not having any reactions neither by the Arab League
03:20nor by the other people there and Turkey and Iran are mostly the two countries which
03:29made a lot of noise, but no thunder, no rain. But they cannot so far
03:40attack Israel because of this. Condemnation will be the case, moral condemnation, political
03:46condemnation, diplomatic condemnation will be there, but to declare the war to Israel means
03:55declaring the war to America, NATO and the European Union. As the American defense minister
04:01Austin stated, if Israel is attacked, it will support. This is the signal to those countries
04:09who are important in the region. I'm talking here the Arab countries, Gulf countries in general.
04:16And we know that the Gulf countries do not want to get any organized,
04:25militarily organized groups, non-state actors in the Middle East. Hamas, Hezbollah and
04:33like groups they don't like. So why? Because Middle East, if there is a cooperation between
04:40Arab countries and Israel like the Abraham Accords, then there should be no this type of
04:48disturbances in economic, political terms. So, I think whatever it is, the assassination of
04:57Hamieh is a big event within the Gaza conflict since October 7th.
05:05October 7th, indeed, indeed. Professor Bauchi, you mentioned that after the return of Benjamin
05:12Netanyahu from the United States, he possibly carried out that attack and others also. There
05:18was one attack in Beirut also. To implicate Israel as of now for this assassination,
05:27what could be the ramifications first? And secondly, how importantly or how convincingly
05:33do you believe that a United States which is going to elections, would any candidate,
05:41either Democrat or Republican, would risk his candidature of possibly getting into another war?
05:50First of all, I don't think there will be a war. The second one, two countries
05:57in their, not constitution, but in their raison d'etre, are obliged to help to Israel. This is
06:06the United States of America and this is Germany. So, these two countries are the, in quotation,
06:14natural protectors of the state of Israel. And then maybe the other European countries,
06:22Great Britain included. But these two countries are crucial ones. And I think
06:28the American presidential candidates, they know exactly if they would have any statements against
06:37Israel or Israel-related political issues, they don't have any chance to win the elections in
06:44America. This is another political reality. So, even candidate Kamala Harris, just last week,
06:52she started her speech, Hamas is a terror organization. It is exactly what the Israelis
06:59wanted to hear. Whereas for other countries like Turkey, for example, Hamas is not a terror
07:05organization. So, this process will continue. But maybe in this respect, I may tell you what I
07:15told to Turkish press and newspapers. The Gaza issue is turning, evolving to a non-Arab issue.
07:27Since the very beginning, since 1948, it was Arab-Israeli conflict. We all know the history,
07:34like Omar Sadat's Israel's policy, land for peace or peace for land policy. And he was
07:40assassinated by Muslim brothers in the north. It is very difficult to get peace in the Middle East.
07:47But these two countries, Turkey and Iran, are non-Arab countries. And suddenly these two
07:54countries appear as the national protector of Gaza issue or Hamas supporters. This is a very
08:03dangerous, I would say, involvement because Iran and Turkey, two neighbors, important
08:13concerning the Jerusalem and of course Palestine issue, always supported Turkey as the one
08:21since 1979 as a Palestinian embassy in Ankara. But the problem is here, how Iran and Turkey
08:30will react now to react to Israel's position. I understand that Iran supporting Hamas,
08:41but I do not think that Iran would enter into war with Israel for two reasons. One,
08:50in the history, it has never been the case. And Ahmedinejad stated just today that they
08:59supported the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan and supported America. So this type of statement
09:07suddenly comes and it creates a new political environment. I do not expect that America and
09:14Iran will fight. It is not at the moment. Turkey, the Turkish policy from the very beginning
09:24was on the side of Hamas, which created a lot of discussion in the Turkish public,
09:30in the mainstream discussion. And the president's statements just a couple of days ago,
09:38where I commented also several times to different newspapers and televisions, I think
09:49it was meant not to attack Israel, but in the long run how to fight Israel. Turkey and Israel
09:59actually had the best relations in the past. Until last September, Netanyahu was on the way to come
10:07to Turkey to visit before 7th of October. So the Turkish-Israeli relations have been
10:15troublesome. But last year and the year before, the Israeli president came to Turkey and everything
10:23was just going on with this Abraham Accords. Turkey was turning the policy not to be against
10:33Israel, but to cooperate with Israel. Now, the verbal confrontation between the foreign ministers
10:43of two sides, I find it childish that one is talking like Saddam Hussein in Portugal and
10:53Turkish foreign ministry, never ever Turkish foreign ministry stated to compare Netanyahu
10:59as Hitler. I mean, this type of verbal accusation mostly for domestic consumption. So I think
11:09both sides, Netanyahu and Erdogan, in all those years, they were
11:14blessing each other, but making, if you want, positive results in the elections.
11:23Absolutely, Professor. A lot changed, you're right. Not just in September-October of 2023,
11:32but also even during the time of 2015, when there was a churn in Kyrgyz politics, when
11:40President Erdogan gave more powers to the president and prime ministerial powers were curtailed.
11:47That was also a time when all this migrant crisis was going on. Turkey was
11:54facing the heat from Syrian border. There was a war also going on, the red zone issue, and then
12:00the Israeli support to the other factions. So nonetheless, coming back to Turkey, Professor,
12:06and this would be the last question, I don't want to keep you busy on your holiday also.
12:11Given Turkey's strong response to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist in 2018,
12:21in the Saudi Arabia embassy in Istanbul, how do you think Turkey might respond to the killing
12:27of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, outside his own country's borders? And what parallels, if you
12:33may share with us, can be drawn between these two incidents, Professor? Interesting comparison,
12:40first of all, and good question. One of the issues, it was the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul,
12:49where Jamal Khashoggi was killed. It was perfectly organized, like Hollywood film.
12:59Turkey condemned, like many other countries, of course, this. But at the end of the day,
13:05President Erdogan turned his policy from unfriendly relations to now brotherly relations.
13:12So this is something which we have sometimes difficulties to analyze and compare, because
13:20President Erdogan's policy is very strongly polarizing, but then is like a boomerang,
13:29coming back, and as if nothing happened before, he continued the relations. It is very pragmatic,
13:38I would say, political animal, in political terms. I do not expect that for Haniyeh,
13:47it will be the same, because Haniyeh is not the state representative. I mean,
13:54Hamas does not represent a state, first of all. But the Turkish concern, President's concern, is
14:02much more ideological in this respect. And this ideological rapprochement,
14:09started with the Arab Spring, continues. And I think he never given up, he has never given up
14:17his position concerning the Hamas. But he knows, technically and practically,
14:24that he cannot do anything against Israel in this sense, militarily. Verbal attacks will be there,
14:34but if there are some developments in future, a new Gaza, a new, let's say, political environment,
14:45probably Turkey will further continue to have good relations with Israel. If President
14:52Erdogan is out of office, and then replaced by another one, not from his party, but from the
14:59opposition, probably the Turkish style relations will be faster, much better than it would be the
15:07case for AKP political leadership. Right, the AKP, for which President Erdogan becomes the up party,
15:16as they call it. Yes. Professor Hussain Bagchi, thank you so much. This is the time when I say
15:21tamam here. Thank you so much. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you so much for speaking
15:28to us. We were speaking to Professor Hussain Bagchi, and he is the co-founder of ANGARA,
15:36Global Advising Group. Thank you so much, sir. Have a lovely day. Thank you.
15:45Thank you.
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