MLB Best Bets PLUS MLB Trade Deadline Rumors and Prospects
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00:00It's been too long, frankly, since we did this.
00:07Craig Mish is here.
00:08We go around the bases and touch them all today.
00:11It's time for the Daily Bases.
00:18I'll do it.
00:19Craig!
00:20Craig, great to have you back.
00:21You talked a little bit about your trip to the Lone Star State last week as you took
00:26in all the festivities.
00:27The American League winning the All-Star game for the 10th time in the last 11 years.
00:31Jaren Duran named the All-Star game MVP.
00:34The Home Run Derby.
00:35Teoscar Hernandez putting on a show.
00:38What was your favorite part, Craig, of your trip to Arlington and the All-Star break?
00:43Well, the Home Run Derby is always fun, having a swing off for the first time ever.
00:48I thought that was really cool, so that was a big part of the experience.
00:52The All-Star game itself, guys, let's be honest, it's just like any other game.
00:56Once you get to the fifth, sixth inning, you can see these guys are swinging at the
00:59first pitch every time they want to go home.
01:01But I think just, again, seeing a lot of new faces, a lot of young players, Skeens opening
01:07up the game, getting those matchups with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, definitely a lot of
01:12fun as well.
01:13And I thought Arlington and all around Texas, I thought they did a phenomenal job just with
01:19all the festivities and the All-Star game.
01:21But I definitely think that there's going to be a lot of those players that you're going
01:24to see back again in that game next year in Atlanta.
01:27Yeah, it was fun.
01:28It got that nice mesh of the older veterans and a lot more of that young talent infusion,
01:33and certainly we look forward to that in the next couple years.
01:36Let's take a look at maybe a talent infusion coming up in a week or so for multiple baseball
01:40teams trying to vie for Tarek Scouble.
01:43This guy's one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, probably if he stays in the
01:46American League, going to win the Cy Young Award.
01:48Craig, what have you been hearing maybe behind the scenes?
01:51Is it true that Scouble possibly could be on the move by the deadline?
01:56Haven't heard one thing about this.
01:57So this is just me reading the same thing that you guys are.
02:01Now again, I'm not in a position to say that something is true or not, because I just don't
02:05know.
02:06I can't speak on it.
02:07And again, I have contacts way beyond just covering the Marlins.
02:11But this one would be an absolute stunner for me.
02:14By the way, it doesn't make any sense either.
02:16I mean, the Tigers at some point are going to have to be a little bit better than what
02:20they are right now.
02:22I don't know if it's this year.
02:23But if you look at the Tigers and their trajectory, doesn't it feel a lot like the Pirates trajectory?
02:27And you feel like the Pirates have a guy like Skeen.
02:30And Detroit has a guy like Scouble.
02:31Yes, he's got a couple of years under his belt.
02:34So he doesn't have that complete team control like Skeen's does.
02:38But if the Tigers are going to compete as soon as next year with A.J.
02:42Hinge, who's won World Series with Houston, like, isn't he the guy that's going to front
02:46that rotation?
02:47Guys, this makes no sense to me whatsoever.
02:49So, again, if it happens, it happens.
02:52Several years ago, I couldn't have seen Juan Soto traded.
02:54And since that has happened, I'm never going to say that anything's 100 percent or even
02:5899 percent.
02:59But I would be shocked if Detroit traded arguably one of the best pitchers in the American League,
03:03who, by the way, is not a free agent next year.
03:06Doesn't make sense to me.
03:08Completely agree, Craig.
03:09He should be the face of the franchise in the Motor City.
03:12He should be the ace of the staff for this year, next year, and many, many years to come.
03:1611-3 now with a 2-3-4 ERA and minus 1-4 to the updated number to win the American League
03:23Cy Young Award.
03:24That was Craig's preseason prediction of who would win the AL Cy Young.
03:29Other pitching news, James Paxton, the veteran lefty for the Dodgers, DFA'd yesterday, meaning
03:36he was released.
03:37An interesting stat line this year for Paxton, 8-2.
03:41So when he was on the bump, the Dodgers, who are one of the best teams in baseball, would
03:44win games, but an ERA above 4.
03:48What does DFA-ing Paxton mean?
03:51Does it mean the Dodgers are opening up some spots on the roster to add in some familiar
03:56faces?
03:57Yeah, well, they could have done that next week, so there was really no need to do it
04:02now if that was the case.
04:03I think they just simply looked at it, and I guess a lot of the advanced metrics came
04:07out once he was DFA that showed that he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball
04:11this season.
04:12He's had a lot of runs for him, and he's stranded a lot of runners, which generally
04:16means you're lucky in baseball.
04:18Now, Paxton will latch on with another team.
04:21He is nowhere near the pitcher that he used to be, as the strikeout numbers would indicate.
04:25I don't believe his career is over, but I think the Dodgers simply wanted more swing
04:30and miss in that rotation.
04:32So whether they add someone or not, I think it's sort of irrelevant.
04:35They're just kind of selling high, if you can say that, even on Paxton's season.
04:41DFA Series tonight starts.
04:43Luis Gil had a little bit of a rough road there, but back-to-back, really quality starts
04:47here as he takes the mound tonight.
04:49Yankees look like they're going to be buyers at the deadline.
04:51The Mets, Greg, will they be buyers also?
04:53Are they going to help this team out a little bit?
04:56Look, I would think that the Mets will push a little bit.
04:59I don't see why they wouldn't.
05:01Last year, they were sellers.
05:02I don't know that they'll necessarily be buyers.
05:05I think the one thing, guys, that the Cubs did yesterday is set the tone for the deadline.
05:13I think there are some other teams, guys, that may follow suit with the Cubs and say,
05:17hey, look, Cubs, big market team, team that can spend endlessly, choosing not to do it,
05:23choosing not to go in, few games under, we'll be them too.
05:27Hate to see that, but I think that's what we're setting up for here at the deadline.
05:31A lot of holders at the deadline as opposed to buyers and sellers.
05:36That's what you hate to see.
05:38You want some buyers, you want some sellers.
05:40You don't want holders.
05:42We want some activity.
05:43We want Craig Misch pulling out his phone when he's here for the Daily Basis next Tuesday
05:48as he gets breaking news live, and then Donnie can say sources of sources.
05:53That's all we have ever wanted.
05:54Craig Misch, thank you so much.
05:57We'll talk to you tomorrow.
05:59More around the MLB Diamond.
06:01A full slate on this Tuesday around Major League Baseball, a historic day.
06:06Anytime Paul Skeens gets a storm.
06:10It is Skeens Day number 12 in the history of MLB.
06:14That's XII today in Pittsburgh as the Buccos get ready to host the St. Louis Cardinals.
06:20Pittsburgh did win the opener of this midweek set against their divisional foe yesterday.
06:26The Pirates are playing really good baseball at the moment.
06:29Winners of eight of their last ten.
06:31Two games above .500.
06:33Only a half game out of a wild card spot in the NL.
06:38Anytime Skeens is on the bump, they're a hefty home favorite at minus 180.
06:44Will Paul Skeens deliver yet another win for Pittsburgh today against the Redbirds?
06:48I think he will.
06:49Do I want to bet the minus 172?
06:51Not necessarily.
06:52Paul Skeens has a 60 X-fit minus and an ERA of 1.76 over the past 60 days.
06:57That is crazy good.
06:58You take a look at Lance Lynn.
06:59He's not a bad pitcher.
07:00If you look at his 60-day numbers, a 102 X-fit minus, a higher ERA of 5.20.
07:05But that really tells you that he might be getting a little bit more unlucky.
07:08But having said that, Lance Lynn over the past 30 days, 90 batters that he's faced in
07:12total, 43 of those are lefties.
07:15How about this?
07:16An ISO of 286 and a weighted on base percentage of 372.
07:20Good lineup tonight here for the Pirates.
07:22We got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 estimated left-handed batters if we include switch hitters, so that
07:28might be an advantage.
07:29Pittsburgh should win this baseball game, but I do think Lance Lynn will be okay because
07:33this game is in Pittsburgh, a true pitcher's ballpark.
07:36So I look at that 7.5 and say, this game is probably like a 4-1, 4-2, 4-3 type game.
07:42So I think it stays under the 7.5.
07:43I do think Pittsburgh wins.
07:45I just don't know if I want to take that 172 price point.
07:48That's all.
07:49The Pirates have won 8 of the 11 starts overall for Paul Skeens.
07:54His record 6-0 with a 1-9-0 ERA.
07:57It would be the lowest in baseball, yet he has not met the innings requirement as you
08:01might expect for a rookie making his 12th start.
08:05We saw Paul Skeens start last Tuesday for the National League at the All-Star Game.
08:107.5 is the K prop for Skeens today, and the over has a bit of plus money at plus 102.
08:17He's at 8Ks or more in 7 of his previous 8 starts.
08:21Normally, 7.5 has remained the K prop, but the over has started to add the juice, even
08:26bumping the K prop up to 8.5.
08:29I do find that to be a little bit intriguing today inside PNC Park.
08:34The Pittsburgh Pirates won their weekend set against the Philadelphia Phillies.
08:38They're in-state foe.
08:39The Phil's struggling a little bit on either side of the break.
08:42They've dropped 5 of their last 7, but Zach Wheeler, their ace, gets the start today in
08:48Minneapolis.
08:49Will the Phil's bounce back after losing 7-2 to the Twins yesterday in the opener?
08:54Do I know if Zach Wheeler's back is 100%?
08:56He probably wouldn't be pitching if it wasn't, so I do trust that the Phillies' net 162 price
09:01should be valid today, and also keep in mind, we just talked about Paul Skeens, and you
09:05bring up that strikeout prop, which is the same thing we can bring over to Zach Wheeler
09:08as well.
09:09Obviously, pitchers are pitching on every 4-5 day here, and maybe 6 days if you take
09:13a look at that rotation in Atlanta, but you're giving some really powerful pitchers an extra
09:18week to a week-and-a-half off.
09:19Keep in mind, Paul Skeens didn't pitch a couple days before the break, goes into the All-Star
09:23break, throws one inning in an All-Star game, then has another week off until he pitches
09:28tonight.
09:29He should be extra gassed up, which that's what I expect for Zach Wheeler.
09:31Zach Wheeler's actually supposed to pitch the Sunday before the All-Star break, but
09:35they wanted to give him a little bit extra time off, so his fastball should be touching
09:39high 90s in this game.
09:40There should be a bounce-back performance, but then again, you see that price point there
09:44on the screen of 162.
09:45Yeah, the Phillies should win that game.
09:47Probably will go over the total, but at the same time, you'd be upset, like the fourth
09:51inning, like, hey, well, with only an 80 pitch count or 85 pitch count, you're going to pull
09:54him out because you don't want to do any more damage to the back if it's still a little
09:57bit sore.
09:58Those are the tough things to bet into, but in a perfect vacuum here, where we don't have
10:02to worry about Zach Wheeler's back, the Phillies should win this game going away against Woods
10:06Richardson.
10:08The age-old rest versus rust to bake.
10:11Will they be a little bit rusty?
10:13Will they take it a little bit slow after the break, or are they coming out firing away?
10:18Chris Sale gets the start today for Atlanta.
10:20He is the NL Cy Young favorite in front of Wheeler, who is in front of Skeens.
10:25Great starters on the bump all across MLB today.
10:29The Braves are a minus-235 favorite against the Reds since they got the victory in the
10:33opener of this set yesterday against Reynaldo Lopez.
10:37Atlanta a hefty favorite.
10:39Will they make good on that ticket?
10:4079 degrees, light wind blowing out the left field.
10:43You see that 7.5 number last year.
10:45This might have been 9.5 because we know those Atlanta bats certainly would come to play
10:49against a pitcher that isn't of, let's just say, dominant ilk, which Nick Martinez technically
10:54isn't.
10:55But Martinez hasn't been bad this year, but that's not really the handicap.
10:58It's just the Atlanta Braves lineup.
10:59Like, if you say tonight, hey, the Braves are going to score three runs, I don't know
11:02if I want to back Chris Sayle at that price.
11:04And even if I think he is going to be very good, I told you yesterday, just take the
11:07Reds here against another really good pitcher in Lopez because I don't think the Braves
11:11can hit.
11:12Same thing goes tonight.
11:13Why don't you just take the dog price on the Reds and say, how many runs can the Braves
11:15score?
11:167.5 as well for Atlanta, the highest under-percentage in MLB.
11:21More GEL next.
11:22For the final time this year, at least in the regular season, more than likely not in
11:27October, the Subway Series.
11:29This week, a two-game set.
11:31It starts tonight in the Bronx.
11:33The Mets actually won both of the games against their in-city rival back in June at Citi Field.
11:41Today, the Subway Series begins in the Bronx.
11:45The Yankees a favorite at home today, and as I try to find the price for this Subway
11:50Series, the Yankees a slight favorite to win the set overall, plus 164.
11:55A tie, that's a split of the two-game set, is minus 102.
11:59The Mets enter the series at plus 440.
12:02Both teams ended out an extended weekend series in a four-game set yesterday, both with a
12:08victory.
12:09The Mets on the road in South Beach over the Marlins.
12:12The Yankees at home yesterday.
12:14Some day-to-day baseball against the Rays, both splitting that four-game set.
12:20Our guy, Luis, don't call him, heel, on the bump today.
12:23Minus 162.
12:25The Pinskripes a home favorite against the New York Mets.
12:27Yeah, I liked what I saw to Luis' heel over the past two starts here, maybe bouncing back
12:31to that form that he started the season with, but if we do take the 60-day statistics in
12:36totality between both of these pitchers, Jose Quintana's got a 105 X-fit minus, and you
12:40take a look at Luis' heel, a 106 X-fit minus.
12:43Both of those guys just above that average threshold here, but also, sometimes it comes
12:48down to the matchups here.
12:49Quintana's gonna come here with 98 batters faced over the past 30 days.
12:53An ISO power number combined of 195, and a weighted-on-base percentage of 295.
12:58The one thing that he's done extremely well is dominate left-handed batters.
13:01On the lineup today, the only lefty that's gonna be in there is Juan Soto, that's just
13:05very good statistics with lefty on lefty.
13:07If you take a look at Quintana, he's got an elevated ISO power number against right-handed
13:11batters, but a good weighted-on-base percentage.
13:13Here's the issue.
13:14Take a look at this lineup.
13:15We talked about it yesterday.
13:17Boy, until that game started against the Rays, where they actually had a very good offensive
13:20outing, put up nine runs.
13:21Like, where has the offense been, because it's felt like, Ben, it's just Soto and it's
13:25just Aaron Judge.
13:26And quite frankly, against left-handed pitching over the past 30 days, it's just Soto and
13:30it's just Aaron Judge.
13:32Everybody else has been brutal besides those two guys.
13:35Flip it over to the New York Mets here and see how they match up against Leece Heel.
13:38If we're just looking at the past 30 days, he was a right-handed pitcher.
13:42Left-handed batters have gotten the best of them here.
13:44Two guys with great numbers at the top of the lineup that will be lefties today, that's
13:47Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo.
13:49We also take a look at a little bit later in that lineup, Jeff McNeil.
13:52So obviously, the batting optics look better on a Mets side here.
13:56So I'm actually going to look at this and say, boy, I'd love to go with an over.
13:59But I just think it screams under, to be honest.
14:01Even though it's a hitter's ballpark, those Yankee numbers don't look great against lefties
14:04and I'll ride that.
14:07Nine is the total.
14:08Some storms in the greater New York City area expected all day long.
14:12Again, Leece Heel, you saw the numbers there.
14:143-1-7 ERA, a 10-5 record, plus 240 to win the American League Rookie of the Year award.
14:22Second-best behind the Rangers' Wyatt Langford, who delivered the walk-off RBI winner for
14:26Texas yesterday.
14:28When Leece was known by a different name in his first 14 starts of the year, 9-1-mark,
14:342-0-3 ERA, and the Yankees had won 12 of those first 14 starts, then he allowed 16 earned
14:41runs in his next three starts.
14:43Now in his last two, as Donnie mentioned, better as of late, just a single earned run
14:48in each, 12-2-3 in those two starts in that span.
14:53A divisional duel getting started this week in Toronto between the Rays and the Blue Jays.
14:58The Blue Jays, nine games below .500 in this next week ahead of the trade deadline.
15:04What does Toronto do?
15:05Tampa, even .500 after 100 games this year, 50-50.
15:11The numbers for today, the Blue Jays, a home favorite, with Jose Barrios on the bump, the
15:15over-under, 8.5.
15:16What do you like in the six?
15:18Yeah, look at Barrios, and you take a look at the last 30 days, 101 batters.
15:22He's basically average, 153 iso power number against 334, weighted on base percentage.
15:26But if you take a look at that 60-day scope and add in some analytics here for Barrios,
15:30he's got a 119 XFIP minus, how about this, an ERA of 5.06 and an XFIP number of 4.85.
15:36That's not good enough to get the job done, but he does get a bit of a reprieve because
15:40you look at the Tampa Bay Rays lineup and say to yourself, it isn't all that great.
15:44Outside of what, Brandon Lau at a .304 iso and a weighted on base percentage of .393
15:49and Palacios in that lead-off hole of .363, there's not a lot to love in that anticipated
15:54lineup today.
15:55If you do look at Toronto's side, going up against Tyler Alexander on the season, he's
15:59got terrible numbers, but over the past 30 days, he doesn't have any numbers.
16:02So coming back into Major League Baseball right now, if we're looking at some of those
16:05guys, George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have positive numbers, but on the whole, the
16:09past 30 days haven't treated that lineup kindly against left-handed pitching.
16:14But if I'm looking at Berrio struggling here and Alexander not a great pitcher in a smaller
16:18ballpark like Toronto, as opposed to playing in the TROP, you might just want to lean on
16:21the total in this game, even though I'm not in love with it outside of a couple guys on
16:25each one of these rosters.
16:27The Cubbies were an underdog yesterday in Wrigley in the opener against the Milwaukee
16:31Brewers.
16:32Chicago wins 3-1, low scoring affair.
16:35Still today, eight and a half with our central focus inside the friendly confines once again.
16:41Chicago, an ever so slight favorite at minus 110, but minus 106 on the other side for the
16:46Brewers.
16:47A virtual pick'em.
16:48Who gets the victory at Wrigley?
16:50Yeah, you're taking a look at probably the better pitcher in this game is going to be
16:53Jamison Tyone coming in on the card today at a 96 XFIP minus over the past 30 days,
16:57a 3.58 ERA, and also a very manageable XFIP number of 3.86.
17:02He's going up against some hitters that have done well against right-handed pitching, but
17:05not by a lot in that Brewers lineup.
17:07Christian Yelich has solid numbers along with Jackson Chirillo, but everybody else really
17:11leaves a lot to be desired.
17:13So you might have a pretty good pitching performance today on deck for Tyone.
17:16If we flip it over to the Chicago side, Colin Ray, dominant over the past 30 days.
17:20Take a look at this.
17:21An 0-92 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of 275.
17:25If you look in that lineup today, first five batters do have elevated weighted-on-base
17:29percentages.
17:30Horner, Bush, Suzuki, Happ, and Morrell.
17:32Outside of that, Tauchman, Swanson, Neato, Pro Armstrong, not very good.
17:37But I am going to ride this out.
17:38I think Tyone's better than Ray is.
17:40I'll go with the Chicago Cubs.
17:41Now here's the tough part about this too, Ben.
17:43You saw from their leadership group, I should say, right?
17:46General Manager, front office.
17:47They're going to be sellers at the deadline.
17:49How motivated is this Chicago team when they're checking their phones every 30 minutes with
17:53their agent if I got traded or not?
17:55Buyer beware on the Chicago Cubs.
17:59Milwaukee, a five-game lead over St. Louis.
18:01Six ahead of Pittsburgh, but Chicago nine games back and four games below .500.
18:07We've got the in-city rivalry between the New York teams, the Mets and the Yankees.
18:12We've got a four-game set this week between the in-state foes in California.
18:16That's the Dodgers and the Giants.
18:18L.A. taking the opener yesterday, 3-2, all three RBIs off the bat of Te'Oscar Hernandez.
18:25Landon Knack gets the start today at minus 142, the Dodgers' A-home favorite.
18:30River Ryan yesterday, Landon Knack from Johnson City, Tennessee.
18:35Donnie Rightside, have fun on the Moneyline.
18:38We'll see you tomorrow.