- 1 year ago
Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada 16-17 Juli 2024 memutuskan Suku Bunga Acuan atau BI Rate tetap di level 6,25 persen. Selain itu, suku bunga Deposit Facility tetap sebesar 5,50 persen, dan suku bunga Lending Facility sebesar 7,00 persen.
Keputusan mempertahankan suku bunga acuan ini bertujuan menjaga aliran masuk modal asing, dan stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah dari tekanan mata uang dolar AS.
Selain itu, kebijakan mempertahankan BI rate juga konsisten dengan kebijakan moneter pro-stability, yaitu sebagai langkah pre-emptive dan forward looking untuk memastikan inflasi tetap terkendali. Pemerintah menetapkan sasaran inflasi sebesar 2,5±1 persen pada 2024 dan 2025.
Di sisi lain, kebijakan makroprudensial longgar terus ditempuh untuk mendorong kredit atau pembiayaan perbankan kepada dunia usaha dan rumah tangga. Kebijakan ini ditempuh untuk mendorong ekonomi nasional tetap di jalur positif di tengah ketidakpastian perekonomian global.
Keputusan mempertahankan suku bunga acuan ini bertujuan menjaga aliran masuk modal asing, dan stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah dari tekanan mata uang dolar AS.
Selain itu, kebijakan mempertahankan BI rate juga konsisten dengan kebijakan moneter pro-stability, yaitu sebagai langkah pre-emptive dan forward looking untuk memastikan inflasi tetap terkendali. Pemerintah menetapkan sasaran inflasi sebesar 2,5±1 persen pada 2024 dan 2025.
Di sisi lain, kebijakan makroprudensial longgar terus ditempuh untuk mendorong kredit atau pembiayaan perbankan kepada dunia usaha dan rumah tangga. Kebijakan ini ditempuh untuk mendorong ekonomi nasional tetap di jalur positif di tengah ketidakpastian perekonomian global.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Economic Development
00:03Indonesia's Economic Development
00:06Indonesia's Economic Development
00:09Indonesia's Economic Development
00:12Indonesia's Economic Development
00:15Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:18Live from IDX Channel Jakarta, I'm Prasetyowi Bowo
00:21Welcome back to Market Review, a program that discusses
00:24the issues of Indonesia's economic development
00:27This time we will discuss the banking sector
00:30The Bank of Indonesia has again maintained the BI rate of 6.25%
00:36How far does this policy affect the business sector?
00:40Is this policy correct? Let's start the complete market review
00:53The Bank of Indonesia has again maintained the BI rate of 6.25%
01:00The Bank of Indonesia has again maintained the BI rate of 6.25%
01:06The Bank of Indonesia has again maintained the BI rate of 6.25%
01:19This is considered a strategic step in maintaining the stability of the currency exchange rate and inflation rate
01:25This is considered a strategic step in maintaining the stability of the currency exchange rate and inflation rate
01:30In addition, the rate of inflation remains at 6.25%
01:34This is accompanied by a macroeconomic indicator that is still well maintained
01:39On the other hand, the BI is also considered to have a limited space to reduce the rate of inflation to 6%
01:46Until now, there is still external pressure, especially the sentiment of geopolitics and fiat rate
01:55The Bank of Indonesia has decided to maintain the BI rate of 6.25% on 16 and 17 July 2024
02:12The Deposit Facility Ratio remains at 5.5% and the Lending Facility Ratio remains at 7%
02:22This decision is consistent with the pro-stability monetary policy as a preemptive and forward-looking step
02:31to ensure that inflation is still under control in the target of 2.5 plus minus 1% in 2024 and 2025
02:44Yes, Mr. Mirza, again, the Bank of Indonesia maintains the BI rate at 6.25%
02:50And to discuss it, we have connected via Zoom with our source channel today
02:55There is Mr. Arun Sampetody, Head of Investment and International Relations at BPP
03:00Young Entrepreneurs Association of Indonesia or HIPMI
03:03Good morning, Mr. Arun
03:06Hello, good morning
03:08Good morning, Sir
03:10Can you hear me clearly?
03:11Yes, I can hear you
03:13Thank you, Mr. Arun, for your time
03:15We also have Mr. Joshua Pardede, Head of Economics at PT Bank Permata TBK
03:19Good morning, Mr. Joshua
03:21Good morning, Mr. Arun
03:23Good morning, Mr. Arun
03:25Good morning, Mr. Arun
03:27Thank you for your time
03:29We will review this from Mr. Joshua Pardede first
03:31You can see how Mr. Joshua, in line with the policy steps that have been set by the Government of Indonesia
03:35Maintains our rate of 6.25%
03:38So, is the momentum correct after the last few months have been maintained at that level?
03:43I see that the decision of BI is in line with the economic consensus
03:48Where most of the economists are worried that BI will still maintain its rate of 6.25%
03:53That's the first thing
03:55Secondly, we also see that the rate of 6.25% is still consistent
04:00Considering the global geopolitical conditions and also the market conditions
04:04We can see that the rate of 6.25% is still growing dynamically
04:08So, in order to maintain the stability of the Rupiah market
04:11I think this decision is correct
04:16And it is also an opportunity for BI to maintain its rate of 6.25%
04:21To meet the inflation expectations
04:24So, the hope is that this year's inflation is still within the target of the Bank of Indonesia
04:29And in the end, with the stability of the Rupiah market
04:33And also the well-known inflation level
04:35It is also hoped that later on, our economic conditions will continue to be pushed positively
04:41Okay, so how do you see it from the perspective of business owners?
04:45HIPMI evaluates this, Mr. Aron
04:47With the Bank of Indonesia that maintains its rate of 6.25%
04:50Is it possible to say that in the last few months
04:536.25% is quite comfortable for the business world?
04:57Yes, from the perspective of business owners
05:00This is a positive trend that we get
05:04Because this indicates that the economy is falling off
05:10From the inflationary state
05:13So, we hope this is a step forward
05:16And will continue a little with the flowering of the flower family
05:20In order to be able to push again, of course
05:22For businesses to continue to expand
05:27In terms of credit and others
05:29And encourage our MSMEs to move forward better
05:34Of course, this is a very good sign
05:36And we welcome it positively from business owners
05:41Okay, so how about from the financing side for the business world?
05:45We know that the flower family is still in a fairly high level right now
05:52But from what I see, there is still room to lower it again
05:56So that it can support the expansion and growth of the business world in Indonesia
06:01Yes, we understand that there is a lot of inflationary pressure
06:06With the increase in the dollar
06:09Because of course, the Fed rate has also been consistently increased
06:14So this certainly causes a lot of capital flight back to America
06:19So this is what makes the expansion towards the dollar
06:23And also geopolitics, food prices have increased
06:28And others that cause inflationary pressure
06:31Of course, this is related to the rise in the flower family
06:35But with what I said earlier
06:39Now the condition has started to cool off
06:42We hope of course that there will be a decline in the flower family
06:45But of course, with the measures that have been technically analyzed well
06:53So that it does not cause unwanted losses in the economic sector
07:00Of course, from the business side, we hope for a low flower family
07:05So that our consumption can be better
07:09And of course, to be distributed to domestic consumer products
07:16Of course, for buyers at the level of buyers and buyers
07:22Okay, it means there is still hope
07:25It can be said that the flower family has been slightly reduced for the loan flower family
07:30Mr. Joshua, what do you see with the current bank liquidity?
07:34With the current 6.25% of the flower family
07:38Can it guarantee the economy?
07:42How is their income from loans or financing that they have distributed?
07:47Yes, in fact, banking is a follow-up to the economy
07:51So what we need to understand here is
07:54The economic conditions will also be very interesting
07:58How the economy works
07:59With the economic conditions, I think it is not just influenced by the monetary policy of the flower family
08:08But what we need to pay more attention to is the fiscal policy
08:11What is the government's economic policy like?
08:14Because if we look at it from the beginning of the year
08:17There are several policies related to the effective rate of consumption
08:22For taxes, personal personal taxes
08:26Then there is also an increase
08:29Yesterday there was a speech for the education committee
08:34Then there was also a meeting
08:36So some of these policies are also directly influenced by the consumption of the community
08:42But I still see that on the one hand
08:45This monetary policy or this flower family is not the main determinant
08:51What is more demanding is how the government policy
08:54So that the sentiment to the consumer
08:59Then also give incentives to entrepreneurs, including MSMEs
09:03This is to give certainty
09:05If we talk about yesterday, there was a speech related to the fiscal policy
09:10Yes, this is also influenced by the sentiment of the consumer, especially the upper middle class
09:15So I see that with a flower family like this
09:20It is still maintained
09:21It means that the BI will still be careful
09:25Because if we look at it
09:27And it seems that the BI will probably not be ahead of the FED
09:31So it means that I see with the trend from the beginning of the year
09:35We see there is geopolitics in the Middle East
09:37Then also with the current development of political uncertainty in Europe
09:43Then also in the United States
09:46Which will include the election campaign at the end of this year
09:52Of course this is uncertain
09:54So a monetary policy is needed that tends to be prudent and careful
09:59So that the inflation is maintained, the rupiah is controlled
10:02It is hoped that the economic growth will also continue to be positively pushed
10:08But from the perspective of development, we know that the NPL has several sectors that have experienced an increase
10:13There are MSMEs there, then there is a relationship with the value of rupiah exchange which is still around Rp 16,000
10:19Do we need to collaborate again with the fiscal policy?
10:22But hold on to the answer
10:24Mr. Joshua and Mr. Arun, we will take a short break
10:26Make sure you are still with us
10:38Thank you for staying with us in Market Review
10:41Next, we will present data related to the movement of the Bank Indonesia or BIRET
10:47Which has been maintained since April to July this year, 6.25%
10:53You can see the complete data on the television screen
10:56It used to be around 6% until March
10:59Then in April, it was 6.25%
11:02Next, for Indonesia's annual inflation, which is a concern of the central bank
11:08The movement from January to June was quite high at 3.05% in March
11:15Then it tends to drop to 2.5% in June
11:20So, we can see that there is an increase of 6.25%
11:25The movement from January to June was quite high at 3.05% in March
11:29Then it tends to drop to 2.51% in June
11:34We will continue our discussion with Mr. Joshua Pardede, head of the Central Bank of Indonesia
11:40And Mr. Arun Sampetoding, head of the International Investment and Relations Department of BPP HIPMI
11:47Mr. Joshua, we will discuss a little bit
11:51The business world hopes that there will be a little bit of relaxation
11:57With the global impact that they have to reduce
12:00Then the movement from the Rupiah value which is still at the level of Rp16,000
12:06How do you see the trend?
12:08Will it be effective if it is maintained at 6.25%?
12:11Or can we expect more collaboration from the fiscal side?
12:15Yes, I see that there is room for improvement
12:20The Bank of Indonesia has said yesterday
12:23That in the report of the RDPG meeting this month
12:27There is still room for improvement at the end of this year
12:30But maybe the room for improvement is not that big
12:33Because we also need to understand
12:35Even if the U.S. dollar drops
12:38It will not be as low as it was during the pandemic
12:42We know that the U.S. dollar is approaching 0%
12:46So we also need to understand that the new normal from the future Fed
12:52Is likely to be around 2.5% to 3%
12:55So again, as Mr. Arun said
12:58How can we attract investment
13:00Of course we can't be as low as possible
13:03Because in the end, investors will compare
13:06If the U.S. dollar is only 2.5% to 3%
13:09Where the rating in the U.S. is AAA
13:13Of course, foreign investors will also consider
13:17Whether low interest rates in Indonesia will be attractive
13:25So of course, we also expect from the banks
13:28With the drop in interest rates
13:30Of course, it will also give relief from the liquidity side
13:33But again, there are quite a lot of considerations
13:35And I think that what needs to be communicated well in the future
13:40Is related to fiscal policy
13:42Because fiscal policy is the main driver of pre-economy
13:46From economic activities
13:48Moreover, we see that the potential for the future
13:51In the second semester this year
13:53There is still a potential that the government will
13:57Make adjustments to the plastic tax and also the carbon monoxide tax in general
14:01Next year, there is also a potential increase in the carbon tax
14:08And also the PPM
14:10So we need to look at this
14:12And also the PPMDTP will also be removed for the property sector
14:15So there are a lot of fiscal policies
14:17Which I actually see that this actually has a greater impact
14:21Than the flow rate
14:23And also, of course, the coordination or collaboration
14:26Synergy between the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Finance
14:28Has also been continuously carried out
14:31In the sense that we see that when the government
14:34Is not yet too aggressive in issuing the global bond
14:38At the same time, the Bank of Indonesia
14:40Since the beginning of the year, since the end of last year
14:42Has issued the SRBI
14:44So it is hoped that this can still maintain
14:46The capital flow in the country
14:48So that the rupiah is also relatively stable
14:50So I think the efforts that have been made by the Bank of Indonesia
14:53I think so far it is optimal
14:54So what we hope is how the future fiscal policies
14:59Can be aligned, can be synchronized
15:01And also support the people's ability
15:03And also support the momentum of investment
15:06Interesting, let's just ask
15:09How do businessmen see the incentives
15:11When collaborating between fiscal and monetary policies
15:15Which part do you prefer
15:17If maybe Mr. Harun can convey
15:19With the relaxation earlier
15:21Then the incentives provided from the tax side
15:24And maybe the policies that are more pro-business world
15:28Is it ideal enough?
15:30Is it in line with the current needs?
15:32In addition to maybe the condition is quite unstable
15:35Which part do you see
15:37Is the most entertaining for the business world?
15:40Yes, if we are businessmen
15:43Of course we are under quite a lot of pressure
15:47Because we are also hit
15:50With the decrease in the purchasing power of the people
15:51With the indicators
15:53Which we see from the sale of motorcycles and cars
15:58And indeed the pressure on rupiah and also inflation
16:04So on the one hand
16:06Of course in the trend we see the flow rate is also increasing
16:10So from both sides we are very stressed
16:12From the demand of the economy and so on
16:17So we hope like Mr. Joshua said earlier
16:19We are very committed
16:21Indeed it must be combined with good fiscal policies
16:26In order to relax the pressures on the business world
16:31So that consumption can flow back
16:34Go back well
16:36Especially in the MSME sector
16:38Which is of course the backbone of our economy
16:41So we are very careful
16:43The number of MSMEs is 60 million
16:45MSMEs, we hope this will remain
16:47Maintained and observed
16:50So that consumption continues to flow
16:52Their business continues to flow well
16:54Because the NPL and the credit can also be maintained
16:57So this fiscal policy must welcome
17:00What was said earlier
17:02Rather than a policy from the BI that is already optimal
17:06We hope from a business plan like this
17:09Okay, so if we look at this sector, Mr. Joshua
17:13What business sectors can still benefit
17:15Positive from the MSMEs that are maintained
17:18Then is there a sector that is actually
17:21Finally there is a little challenge
17:23With still holding at 6.25% for MSMEs
17:27Yes, that's why we look at it
17:29If we look at our position
17:32At the time when we were stressed
17:35At that time there was a view
17:37Wow, BI must increase the number of MSMEs
17:39But it means by maintaining MSMEs
17:41It actually has a positive impact
17:43To most sectors
17:45Compared to the expectation
17:47MSMEs increase, of course
17:49There are several sectors
17:52Will still be affected
17:54But we see that
17:56If earlier it was for several sectors
17:58Which are quite sensitive
18:00Related to MSMEs, one of them is MSMEs
18:02The second is also property
18:04Then financing to motor vehicles
18:07So I think those sectors
18:09Will be quite influential
18:11For example, every movement
18:13Or changes from MSMEs
18:15The expectation
18:17Again, if we look at it
18:19If we can convey the data here
18:21That at the time when Bank Indonesia
18:23Raised the interest rate
18:25In September last year
18:27And also in April this year
18:29Actually the impact on the interest rate
18:31Of the banking credit
18:33Not much, not significant
18:35Because at the same time
18:37Bank Indonesia continues to do
18:39Policy, for example, relaxation
18:41Macro-prudential
18:43For example, for sectors
18:45Which are considered a priority
18:47Of course
18:49This is also a relief
18:51For banks that distribute credit
18:53To those sectors
18:55Including MSMEs
18:57And we also relate
18:59With some previous statements
19:01By the president who said
19:03Evaluating MSMEs
19:05I had an opinion with Mr. Arun
19:07MSMEs are our economic backbone
19:0960% of our GDP
19:11More than 95%
19:13Employment is MSMEs
19:15I also think
19:17The condition of MSMEs
19:19Right now
19:21Especially
19:23In general
19:25The industry is increasing
19:27It is true
19:29To extension
19:31From restructuring
19:33For MSMEs
19:35I think it's right
19:37But of course
19:39It needs to be done
19:41To not give
19:43Moral hazard
19:45To be given an incentive
19:47Or extended
19:49The restructuring will be
19:51For those banks
19:53The restructuring must be evaluated
19:55With support
19:57To MSMEs
19:59But not to be evaluated
20:01As a moral hazard
20:03By banks
20:05And besides that
20:07I think most sectors
20:09Will respond positively
20:11If the dropout space
20:12Is more open
20:14At least
20:16At the end of this year
20:18And early next year
20:20We will see the potential
20:22Of this trend
20:24Will it last until the end of the year
20:26Or is there still room to drop it
20:28Until we see the dofus
20:30From The Fed
20:32Mr. Joshua and Mr. Arun
20:34We will be back
20:36After the break
20:42Next Episode
20:52We will continue
20:54This interesting discussion
20:56With Mr. Joshua Pardiri
20:58And Mr. Arun from HIPMI
21:00If we look at the current situation
21:02From the business world
21:04As Mr. Joshua said
21:06There are some sectors
21:08That are benefitted
21:09From the fiscal aspect
21:11Automotive sector
21:13Relaxation
21:15Incentive policy
21:17Property
21:19MSMEs
21:21Restructuring
21:23What do you think
21:25Is the potential
21:27Of our business
21:29As we know
21:31The data from the trading services
21:33Is declining
21:35There is import value
21:36For the machines
21:38What can be said
21:40With the real condition
21:42From the manufacturing sector
21:44Or the productivity
21:46Mr. Arun
21:48The decline
21:50Is due to
21:52The increase
21:54Of the dollar
21:56Which is the main
21:58Component of the raw materials
22:00And the supporting components
22:02Which are imported
22:04Of course
22:06There is an increase
22:08From the rupiah
22:10In the future
22:12With the indication
22:14That there is a decline
22:16Which will push
22:18For the development of the flower
22:21In America
22:23It will increase
22:25Investments in the country
22:27Because the dollar
22:29Will look for
22:31Industries with
22:33Higher value of flower
22:34And better returns
22:36Of course we can catch
22:38In Indonesia
22:40With various strategies
22:42Which are being implemented
22:44And we hope
22:46It will continue
22:48In the foreign sector
22:50Mr. Arun
22:52Do you think Indonesia
22:54Is still the primary donor
22:56Or is it sexy
22:58For the international investors
23:00To invest in Indonesia
23:02We see
23:04A good transition
23:06Of course
23:08This is the right moment
23:10For the investors to come back
23:12To Indonesia
23:14To support the battery ecosystem
23:16Which is receiving donors
23:18With our nickel
23:20And we hope it will continue
23:22And of course the government
23:24Must continue to push
23:26With positive policies
23:28So that it will be easier
23:30For investors to invest
23:32In Indonesia
23:34With tax incentives
23:36And so on
23:38We hope it will continue
23:40So that it can
23:42Get rid of the momentum
23:44That has been built
23:46In the battery and nickel ecosystem
23:48Okay, Mr. Arun
23:50So your projection
23:52Based on the movement
23:54Will it last 6.25%
23:56Until the end of the year
23:58Then the potential to keep
24:00Inflation under control
24:02The value of the Rupiah exchange
24:04Will be around Rp. 16,000
24:06Yes, as I said earlier
24:08That the direction of the Rupiah exchange
24:10Will be influenced
24:12By the policy of the US government
24:14In the future
24:16As we have been together
24:18Since the shooting trial
24:20Of Donald Trump's candidate
24:22Yesterday
24:24This has given
24:26A significant support
24:28To President Trump
24:30And as we have been together
24:32Five years before
24:34President Biden
24:36We know that the policy of Donald Trump
24:38Generally gives uncertainty
24:40To the market
24:42The second one
24:44Is to give
24:46Trade attention to China
24:48And also some policies
24:50Related to
24:52Efforts to
24:54Reduce taxes
24:56It means that this is becoming complex
24:58It means that the US government
25:00Will take into account
25:02How
25:04The US economy
25:06Will be in the future
25:08For example, we assume
25:10That Donald Trump will win
25:12In this year's presidential election
25:14In the US
25:16And because of that
25:18We generally
25:20See that the room is more open
25:22In the future
25:24Because earlier
25:26We see that
25:28That the room
25:30Will be open
25:32If the conditions
25:34For the two castles
25:36Where some of the Feds
25:38Said that
25:40They are not in a hurry
25:42To reduce the taxes
25:44But on the other hand
25:46Other castles also said
25:48That the US economy
25:50Is also starting to slow down
25:52But that uncertainty
25:54Is what we should anticipate
25:56And I think
25:58The room is open
26:00In the future
26:02And I think the decrease
26:04In the next year
26:06Will be around 7.4 points
26:08Decrease in the BPI
26:10So we hope that
26:12It will have a positive impact
26:14On our domestic economy
26:16Okay, that's the trend
26:18By the end of the year
26:20It will probably still be 6.25%
26:22Until next year
26:24As we see the US presidential election
26:26There is also a change
26:28From the national leadership
26:30Mr. Joshua, thank you very much
26:32For the time and analysis
26:34And the insights
26:36That you have shared
26:38With the business world
26:40At 6.25%
26:42Good luck with your activities
26:44Mr. Joshua, thank you
26:46Thank you, sir
26:48Don't go anywhere
26:50Because we will be back
26:52With other interesting topics
26:54About the business strategy
26:56Of PT Gunung Raja Paksi TBK
26:58In 2024
27:04Thank you
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