00:00We go to the next information, a new study from the UBS Group shows that the new tariff of 60% of China's exports to the United States
00:08will reduce more than half of China's annual growth.
00:12This puts China at risk if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.
00:22Quoted from various sources of the UBS Group, Wang Tao said
00:26If this scenario occurs, it will cut 2.5% of China's GDP in the next year.
00:33The calculation is based on the assumption that some of the trade is done by third countries,
00:39and China does not pay, as well as other countries that do not cooperate with the United States in forestry.
00:45Half of the hindrance comes from the decrease in exports, while the rest comes from consumption and investment.
00:52Exports have been a strong driver of growth this year,
00:55contributing 14% of China's pre-economic expansion,
00:59and trade surplus reached the highest record last month.
01:02But the strength of exports has triggered complaints from trade partners,
01:06because more and more countries are using tariffs.
01:09China's retaliation can also increase the impact of tariffs because it will increase import costs.
01:13UBS estimates that China's economy will grow by 4.6% next year,
01:18and 4.2% in 2026.
01:21The figure will decrease to 3%,
01:24although there is a stimulus to reduce the impact of each war of tariffs.
01:29As previously announced by the Washington Post,
01:33former US President Donald Trump said,
01:36if re-elected in the November election,
01:39Trump plans to increase trade between the US and China,
01:43one of which is considering a plan to win a tariff of 60% or higher for Chinese goods.
01:49Sources for IDX News
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