Sektor Konstruksi di Tengah Tekanan Kinerja dan Saham

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"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast,Rabu (03/04/2024) dengan Tema Sektor Konstruksi di Tengah Tekanan Kinerja dan Saham".

Transcript

00:00 And this morning, Mr. Mirza has joined us through video conference.

00:04 With us is Mr. Gembong Suwito, who is the Director of Education and Investment from Saumologi.

00:11 Mr. Gembong, how are you?

00:12 I'm fine, Mrs. Pris. Good morning, everyone.

00:15 Okay, we will discuss the work of the construction company first.

00:20 It's been a long time, right?

00:21 Suspended by the Indonesian Economic Agency, there is WIKA and also Waskita Karya.

00:25 The most in-depth work is actually WIKA.

00:29 The loss is even 11,000%, even approaching 12,000%.

00:35 How do you feel about the construction?

00:38 Okay, we talk about construction, then the main mindset is BUMK Karya.

00:42 There are four, the first from WIKA, Waskita, PTPP, and ADI.

00:47 Two that record profit, ADI and PTPP.

00:52 But two that record a fairly large loss, quite deep from the fundamental side,

00:57 which is Waskita and WIKA.

01:01 Why is that?

01:03 One thing that certainly happened in terms of financial reporting,

01:07 there is one that is a decrease in revenue.

01:12 In the last five years, the revenue has been continuously decreasing.

01:14 Automatically, the burden on the stock price has increased.

01:18 On the debt side, this is what is interesting.

01:20 The two stocks, Waskita and WIKA, the debt service ratio increased by 9 to 13 times.

01:29 According to the equity.

01:31 In addition, the third is the legal factor.

01:35 Now there are several, PKPU, and the last is the one that will be faced in the future,

01:42 also the regulator or deal with FCA or Full Call Option.

01:46 Something like that, what happened.

01:49 What do you see that makes the revenue from WIKA and Waskita

01:54 experience pressure that affects the clean market?

01:57 And until it is suspended by the stock market for quite a long time.

01:59 Then how far will this affect the view of other construction emittance activities

02:06 that are still profitable, there are PTPP and ADI Karya

02:09 which are still recorded in the Indonesian stock market and are still fine.

02:13 But we see the stock price is also declining.

02:17 The sectoral effect is quite influential in this construction sector.

02:22 At the moment, the sentiment is still negative.

02:25 Why is it negative?

02:27 Because we know that in the last 5 years, the revenue has not increased but has decreased.

02:34 Why did that happen?

02:36 Because of course it is related to government projects

02:40 and it experiences extraordinary pressure related to debt.

02:44 The debt service ratio is 7-13 times from equity and that is quite burdensome.

02:51 Automatically, to take it aggressive again, government projects

02:55 automatically have to calculate it too.

02:57 Because the heaviest burden is the debt and the liquidity is quite challenging.

03:02 That's what causes the fundamental decline in performance.

03:06 Automatically, the price is affected by the negative sentiment.

03:11 The price is also relatively low and now it is suspended.

03:14 It has been suspended for quite a long time

03:17 because it is necessary to see how these two constructions can recover,

03:22 turn around, and see if there is a story that can create profitability.

03:25 At the moment, it is still far from profitability, but it is getting deeper.

03:30 Because the projects are still running, the debt is still running, and it has to be paid.

03:34 That's why they are restructuring the debt.

03:36 There must be a lot of people who are stuck in Samuika and our boss

03:41 who are now suspended with this bad energy.

03:43 Do you think the government's steps to blow up BUMN Karya

03:49 are fresh air? The plan is that 7 BUMN Karya will be blown up into 3 companies.

03:53 Okay, related to holding, it is likely to be done.

03:58 But to get there, the path is still quite long.

04:03 Especially since this is a transition to leadership.

04:06 Secondly, from the fundamental side, related to debt, debt must be paid.

04:13 When it has to be paid, is there liquidity?

04:16 That's the PR and the debt level keeps increasing.

04:21 At the moment, there is no positive sentiment.

04:25 There used to be, related to the IKN, sovereign wealth fund,

04:29 but the fundamental is that there is no improvement in the energy.

04:35 What happens is that the debt or the loss level is getting deeper.

04:41 Something like that.

04:43 If we discuss the sectoral sentiment that also affects the PTPP and Adikarya

04:50 which is still positive in terms of energy, right, Mr. Gembong?

04:54 Yes, that's right.

04:55 Is this an opportunity in the middle of a weakness?

04:57 Because we see that in the last 6 months, PTPP has fallen by 42%,

05:01 but the year-to-date is still okay, 7, still positive, 7.48%.

05:06 Is it okay for PTPP and Adikarya to be bought at this price, sir?

05:10 If we talk about valuation, it's very cheap.

05:13 The price-to-book value is on average less than 0.5%.

05:18 0.5 times, even in PTPP, it's 0.2.

05:21 So it's very, very cheap if we talk about the current price.

05:24 However, again, the biggest challenge in the construction sector is

05:28 a warning about their debt increase.

05:31 On the PTPP or Adikarya side, it's between 3-4 times the debt ratio to the equity.

05:39 So that's what becomes more of a concern from investors

05:44 to doubt whether this can enter this sector or another sector.

05:49 Because other sectors also have a positive sentiment.

05:53 Okay, so you're saying it's a bit dangerous

05:57 if the equity debt ratio is up to 3-4 times in Adikarya and PTPP.

06:03 Yes, that's right.

06:04 Are you afraid of following in the footsteps of your brothers?

06:07 Yes, we are talking fundamentally, the position is very cheap.

06:10 But again, the community or the retail investors

06:14 to enter these two stocks is still a bit hesitant,

06:16 unless they are a conviction.

06:19 If you look at this stock, are you interested in the current price?

06:24 No.

06:25 No, okay.

06:26 So avoid both Adikarya and PTPP, right?

06:31 Yes.

06:32 Okay.

06:33 What sector do you think is better right now?

06:36 Okay, so far, I have consistently helped clients in conservative sectors.

06:43 One, I'm usually strong in 60-70% of my portfolio is in the big bank.

06:49 Okay.

06:51 Big banks, right, Mr. Gembong?

06:54 That's right, 60-70%.

06:56 Because in fact, the last 5 years have been quite consistent

07:00 to help our clients achieve financial goals and investments.

07:04 The target of the investment is achieved.

07:06 Well, there are also concerns about the ban for Kinerja

07:09 at the beginning of the year, if I'm not mistaken, until February.

07:13 Where the note of significant increases seems more to the BBCA,

07:18 while some others have fallen, if we talk about February.

07:22 The concern that Kinerja is quite significant

07:24 turned out to be a bit difficult to achieve in early 2024.

07:28 What is your opinion on that concern?

07:30 Okay, that's normal, because when talking about investor expectations,

07:35 they will continue to expect that the company will grow.

07:39 For example, in 2023, they are all-time high

07:43 because one of their fundamental factors is their financial report.

07:47 That's very good, right?

07:48 Whether it's BBCA or from the big bank side.

07:51 There, all-time high is related to profitability,

07:55 all-time high is related to price.

07:57 Now, what about now?

07:58 Automatically, the year-to-date from January to March,

08:05 the last March, it has significantly increased.

08:09 Automatically, all the positive sentiments have come out.

08:13 One, it's related to the dividend, it's already THR today.

08:19 The second, from the foreign inflow side,

08:22 from the three-month consistent, it's in.

08:25 Now is the time for health correction.

08:28 So, we usually have two accounts,

08:31 one for investment, one for trade.

08:34 For trade, this is an interesting opportunity.

08:36 Because in the April-May position,

08:40 there should be a correction, both fundamentally and technically, and fluorescent.

08:46 So, this is our opportunity to collect again.

08:49 Something like that from the trade side.

08:51 If from the long investment side, there is no problem.

08:53 Because in the bank, the last five years,

08:56 it has been increasing in all-time high,

08:58 from the performance side and from the price side.

09:00 Something like that.

09:01 Okay, Mr. Gembong.

09:02 So, if you are interested in trading in the bank,

09:04 especially the big banks that you recommend,

09:06 this is the moment because there is a health correction.

09:09 Correct.

09:10 If you want long term or more to medium to long investment,

09:13 it's still accumulating.

09:15 It's still accumulating, the cheaper, the better.

09:18 Yes.

09:19 We will continue later on the recommendation of the Pemirsa election

09:21 and also the trade announcement update in the first session on Wednesday.

09:25 After the break, stay tuned on the Market Plus segment.

09:28 Market Plus

09:29 Marketing and Marketing Analytics

09:32 www.marketingadvice.com

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