- 2 years ago
Sejumlah negara yaitu Jepang dan Inggris saat ini telah memasuki jurang resesi ekonomi. Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Jepang secara tahunan mengalami kontraksi 0,4% pada Q4/2023 setelah pada Q3/2023 juga tercatat minus 3,3%. Negeri Sakura tersebut pun harus terlempar dari posisi ekonomi terbesar ketiga dunia. Sedangkan, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Inggris pada Q4/2023 tercatat minus 0,3%. Sedangkan pada Q3/2023 tercatat juga tumbuh negatif 0,1%.
Pemerintah dalam hal ini Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian menyatakan telah menyiapkan sejumlah strategi dalam mengantisipasi rambatan dampak resesi ekonomi yang dialami sejumlah negara, termasuk Jepang dan Inggris. Diantaranya, dengan menjaga komoditas ekspor andalan Indonesia, menjaga pangsa pasar produk ekspor di luar negeri, dan membuka pasar baru melalui keanggotaan di multilateral agency termasuk Organisasi Kerja Sama dan Pembangunan Ekonomi (OECD).
Pemerintah dalam hal ini Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian menyatakan telah menyiapkan sejumlah strategi dalam mengantisipasi rambatan dampak resesi ekonomi yang dialami sejumlah negara, termasuk Jepang dan Inggris. Diantaranya, dengan menjaga komoditas ekspor andalan Indonesia, menjaga pangsa pasar produk ekspor di luar negeri, dan membuka pasar baru melalui keanggotaan di multilateral agency termasuk Organisasi Kerja Sama dan Pembangunan Ekonomi (OECD).
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04:17 Good morning, everyone.
04:20 Good morning, Professor.
04:22 Good morning.
04:24 Thank you for your time.
04:26 This has been said, when the two countries have entered into economic recession.
04:34 What can you tell us about what's happening in the global economy now?
04:44 We can see that the recession is getting more frequent and persistent.
04:48 If we look at the pattern recently, after the global financial crisis,
04:53 it happened because, first, it's the implication of interconnected world.
04:58 As we are more interconnected, it's the consequence of globalization.
05:03 With globalization, the impact of the recession is getting faster and more frequent.
05:09 That's one consequence. And the second consequence is the impact of the pandemic.
05:16 It's called the scaring effect of the pandemic.
05:20 It's slow, but it's still there.
05:25 It's disrupting the economic stability of various countries in the world.
05:29 Then, the third one is geopolitical and supply chain problems.
05:33 So, the three things are globalization, the consequences of globalization,
05:42 pandemic, and geopolitics.
05:46 And supply chain.
05:47 So, there are many countries that are getting more and more affected.
05:53 So, it's slow, but it's still there.
05:57 Then, it's only this country, this country.
06:00 So, it's disrupting other countries.
06:02 I see the pattern like that.
06:04 It's more complicated in this era of FUKA.
06:07 Uncertain, volatile, and ambiguous.
06:10 Okay. Is that the factor that caused Japan and England to be in recession?
06:17 Because the economic growth was negative in the last two quarters.
06:22 Right. Each country has its own story, but it's related to those three things.
06:27 If we look at Japan, for example, it's also affected by the pandemic.
06:33 Then, there are other structural problems from the population.
06:37 Japan has a different population.
06:39 But, the population is also an aging society.
06:44 So, the population is aging, so the consumption is also decreasing.
06:48 Then, Japan's policy economy is also affected by inflation.
06:53 So, the impact of inflation.
06:55 Why is inflation happening?
06:57 Because in the global, the three things we talked about, geopolitics, supply chain disruption.
07:01 Because of high inflation, plus the consumption is decreasing, the purchasing power of the people is also decreasing.
07:06 As a result, Japan is becoming more difficult to grow, with the addition of the aging society.
07:12 In the case of England, we know the natural gas price, energy policy, and Brexit.
07:17 Actually, Brexit is also geopolitical.
07:21 So, the two countries are separated from Europe.
07:25 Then, they import more from Australia.
07:27 They don't include a more efficient Brexit in Europe for the supply chain.
07:31 Added to Russia, which was previously getting gas from Russia.
07:34 So, everything affects the economy.
07:37 Well, all of them have almost the same story.
07:39 But, each has its own story.
07:41 But, the general story is the same.
07:43 So, that's what caused these two countries to be trapped in a crisis.
07:49 The global condition is uncertain.
07:51 This is what has disrupted the economic sustainability of the countries that are experiencing the crisis.
07:56 That's it. Uncertainty.
07:58 It seems to be happening in the global right now.
08:01 But, the trend of economic slowdown, if we look at the world, will it continue to happen and expand?
08:08 Prof. Thelisa, what do you think?
08:10 Yes.
08:12 If, earlier from the slowdown theory, there is a theory called "Biocontagion and Spillover".
08:17 Because the world is getting more interconnected,
08:20 the recovery will take a long time.
08:24 I mean, there will be stimulus, recovery, but there will be more.
08:29 Because of what?
08:30 Because of the slowdown effect, the interconnectedness is very high, getting higher.
08:35 Because of the system with this globalization.
08:38 And then, energy and food become a big problem in the world.
08:43 So, we are also in the era of climate change, where climate change now affects food production and energy.
08:50 Then, the basic needs of the tree will be affected by inflation.
08:55 That will affect macro stability.
08:57 So, this is a long-term issue.
08:58 That's why there was a term called "Greenflation" that was also hyped during the campaign.
09:04 That and also the food crisis and energy in front of our eyes.
09:08 That affects macro stability.
09:10 And macro stability actually has an effect from a more structural problem, which is food crisis and energy.
09:16 And this can happen all over the world.
09:19 Even though we have the money, but if we don't have the goods, we have to pay attention to that.
09:25 So, I see that this is in the long term, medium long term.
09:28 So, it's not just a short term, it's a bit...
09:31 Except in the world, we do actions together, compact, like stopping wars.
09:36 Because if there are still wars, if there are still supplies and disruptions, our food and energy will be threatened.
09:41 Yes, and there is also logistical disruption in the Red Sea, which creates industrial needs.
09:48 It's a tremendous leap.
09:50 A tremendous leap.
09:52 So, it's necessary. It can't be solved by one country.
09:55 If it's only one country, it can't be.
09:57 Japan alone, England alone, it can't be.
09:59 It has to be in this world, a common awareness, we are in the same boat.
10:03 So, the structural problem of food and energy must be solved first.
10:08 Later, the side effects will go to the macroeconomy.
10:12 Okay. So, how far is the impact of the economic recession experienced by Japan and England on the ASEAN area?
10:19 Okay. We see that ASEAN is gravity.
10:23 Gravity is our proximity, the magnet team.
10:26 Where is the gravity close to?
10:28 Actually, if England, I have done research on the impact of the recession in my journal.
10:33 It's not too high, the direct impact.
10:36 But the indirect impact may be to European countries and China.
10:40 So, we have to see the direct impact.
10:42 If it's direct, England to Indonesia is small, in terms of trade partners and so on.
10:46 Only the financial rights may be there, but small.
10:49 Not as big as the US, of course, or China in terms of trade.
10:54 But we also have to see how the relationship between England and the US, and how the relationship between England and China.
10:59 Because the two countries are the ones that have the impact.
11:02 Or maybe England and Malaysia, we are close to Malaysia, for example.
11:07 Or England and Singapore.
11:09 So, we have to see indirectly, how it is.
11:12 That's the first.
11:13 Then, if Japan, of course Japan as a country in ASEAN, the effect is bigger.
11:18 The gravity, right?
11:19 Because we are closer, both geographically and historically, economically.
11:23 Japan also, don't forget, has given a lot of help to Indonesia.
11:27 In terms of technology development, infrastructure development.
11:30 Japan has given a lot of support to Indonesia.
11:33 So, if Japan has the direct effect, it will be more noticeable.
11:36 Then, now China is also shaking, even though it is still growing.
11:40 But China is planning to get the property crisis.
11:42 Many predict, analyze, even the scary one, they say, can be as scary as the US crisis.
11:48 Global financial crisis, mortgage subprime.
11:51 This is the Evergrande and Country Garden, it can be predicted that the impact can be that big.
11:56 Because China is now also a world currency.
11:58 This is what we need to worry about, the effect of this togetherness.
12:02 Maybe directly, if only that can be isolated, then the English-Chinese may be smaller, Japan is more.
12:07 But when China is also affected, automatically it will have a big impact on us.
12:12 Because China wants to influence the whole world.
12:15 It is like gravity, the center of gravity, China and the US.
12:19 The US can also be affected, for example, because it is the togetherness, the repercussions effect.
12:25 That's what we have to be aware of.
12:27 So, mitigation against the potential crisis must be immediate.
12:32 And it does require joint action.
12:34 One of them, in my opinion, in the global, is war.
12:37 Number one, it must be stopped.
12:39 Because that's one of the keys.
12:41 Okay, okay.
12:42 So, it still has an impact on the geopolitical escalation of the global economy.
12:49 And in the country itself, we know that the government, especially the Ministry of Economic Coordination,
12:54 has prepared a number of steps to anticipate,
12:57 among them, to maintain domestic consumption by promoting productivity.
13:02 What is your own opinion on this?
13:05 Yes, it is a common recipe that is usually done.
13:08 When the global economy is not in a good condition, we develop the local economy.
13:11 So, it means that, because consumption is the biggest,
13:15 but don't forget that our consumption is actually a lot of dressed by the price of commodities.
13:20 So, our growing consumption, for example, in 2007 and above, it can grow because of the price of commodities.
13:29 There is a windfall from commodities, so there is still a global effect.
13:33 But there are things that we can still maintain,
13:37 such as basic consumption, which is a need, such as consumption of food and drinks.
13:41 So, the price of commodities goes up or down, there is still an increase trend,
13:46 according to the needs of the community.
13:48 So, that's what we can save.
13:50 Then, we have other common recipes, so far, there are many things that are imported.
13:55 If imported, it will increase the deficit.
13:57 In the current condition, of course, in a global condition that is not conducive, we have to save on deficits.
14:02 How to save on deficits?
14:04 We have to reduce imports, but now it's a big deal.
14:07 If we don't import, we will see.
14:09 So, on one hand, we still need it, but the imports are being prioritized,
14:13 which are not domestically available.
14:15 If we import products that can still be domestically substituted, we will reduce it.
14:19 Especially the secondary goods.
14:22 If we want to, we don't have the stock.
14:25 We have to increase domestic production, but increasing domestic production is not overnight.
14:30 It takes time and process.
14:32 It's like food, it has to be processed into local food.
14:35 So, it's not just jargon.
14:37 Because we have to save on deficits.
14:39 For example, we have Singkong, we develop Singkong domestically to meet the needs.
14:43 So, it's a defense strategy.
14:47 We were defensive because we were in a state of bankruptcy,
14:50 in a world that is uncertain like this.
14:52 So, we have to do a bankruptcy strategy.
14:54 So, we develop what we can develop domestically.
14:57 If we can reduce imports, but of course, it is prioritized which one.
15:01 Then, while we do consolidation,
15:05 which strengthens our economic structure, especially consumption.
15:08 Then, looking for a trading partner.
15:11 Usually, the solution is also a trading partner who is not in crisis.
15:14 For example, I went to the Middle East yesterday to see that their economy is really growing.
15:19 We always wonder, "What about the Middle East?"
15:22 Even though we have a lot of export, taxes, etc.
15:26 But we haven't gotten much benefit from investment work,
15:29 or cooperation between workers and them.
15:31 That's what we have to push.
15:32 So, usually, we look for a trading partner who is not in crisis.
15:35 Because there are many countries that are still growing, that are still good.
15:38 That's what we have to improve for our trading partners.
15:42 While mitigating the recession.
15:45 Yes, Prof. So, the most important thing besides maintaining domestic consumption,
15:49 with our demographic bonus.
15:51 Then, there are other efforts to maintain our export commodity.
15:55 Of course, abroad.
15:56 We will see what the strategy is. We will discuss it in the next segment.
16:00 Prof. Thalesa, we will take a break.
16:02 And, Pemirsa, stay with us.
16:04 You are still watching Market Review.
16:22 We will be sharing data for you about Indonesia's economic growth in 2023.
16:27 Quarter 1, 2, 3, and 4.
16:30 As you can see, Indonesia's economic growth in 2023 is still above 5%.
16:37 5.03, 5.17, 4.94, and 5.04% in quarter 4 in 2023.
16:45 Next, Asian economic growth in 2023 is cumulative.
16:50 We can see that Myanmar is in the first position, 5.6%.
16:54 Then, Thailand is in the 5.5%.
16:57 And Indonesia is in the third position, 5.05%.
17:04 So, there are data errors related to the data we show.
17:09 Myanmar should be the Philippines if we look at the position.
17:14 Pemirsa, we will continue our discussion with Mrs. Thalesa Aulaw Vlianti,
17:20 a senior lecturer at the Indonesian University.
17:23 Prof. Thalesa, we will continue our discussion about Indonesia's economic growth
17:27 in the midst of the global challenge.
17:29 How is it?
17:30 The government is still maintaining the export-export trade.
17:35 Then, by opening up a new market, how far is it?
17:39 How can this be a shortcut to maintain Indonesia's economic growth in the future?
17:45 Please, Prof.
17:46 We are actually a member of various multilateral agreements.
17:52 As we have discussed, there is RCEP, and we are also a member of the ASEAN Economic Community.
17:57 Some ASEAN countries are still growing.
18:00 Let's talk about the closest ASEAN countries.
18:02 We are clearly in the same ASEAN community.
18:05 It should be more optimal.
18:08 Myanmar's economy is doing well, Vietnam is doing well,
18:13 Malaysia is doing well, especially the Philippines.
18:16 Yes, the Philippines, Cambodia, Indonesia.
18:19 Yes, Cambodia.
18:21 The countries are still growing.
18:23 We should be closer to them.
18:25 With the MEA scheme, we still have excellent products.
18:30 The second one is India and the Middle East.
18:36 The conditions are still good.
18:38 India has a lot of opportunities.
18:41 But we still have to strengthen our diplomacy,
18:45 and we need to work together with India.
18:50 We need to push it further.
18:51 The Middle East is also a country where we have a lot of money to export.
18:55 We still lack that.
18:59 I saw a lot of Indonesian products from China.
19:05 We have a lot of people to export.
19:07 There are still a lot of people.
19:09 Why don't we push it further?
19:11 The fourth one is RCEP.
19:14 We have a lot of multi-economy countries.
19:20 We can optimize it with multi-economy countries that have an agreement with us.
19:26 There is still a lot of room.
19:28 For example, in terms of export promotion, export facilitation, export documents.
19:34 It's also an environmental issue.
19:37 One of our obstacles is in the equal labeling.
19:40 If we go to developed countries, as we said, their quality standards are high.
19:45 Maybe we should also improve our product quality standards
19:48 to meet the environmental standards.
19:50 Sometimes it's overkill.
19:52 But we have to follow their rules.
19:56 The rules of the imported countries.
19:58 It also requires the ability to negotiate diplomacy
20:02 and the ability to meet the challenge of certification.
20:08 We have to meet it.
20:10 We have to improve our quality standards.
20:12 Product quality standards.
20:14 So that our export export capacity is not only cheap, but also in quality.
20:20 We have to start there.
20:22 Environmental issues are still an obstacle.
20:24 Especially when we send our products to European countries.
20:28 But do you see that this is just a small obstacle
20:31 that needs to be solved from the administration or data completion
20:36 to take care of the environment of Indonesian citizens.
20:40 Especially in the agricultural sector or mining.
20:44 No.
20:45 Actually, it's not small.
20:47 Maybe there are administrative but also substantive.
20:52 Like the EUDR.
20:54 The oil problem was deforested by the EUDR of Europe.
20:59 So it's quite complex.
21:01 But we, the government, also try to diplomacy.
21:04 Explain that oil is not necessarily deforestation.
21:08 We have already explained what deforestation definition is.
21:10 Even in Malaysia, oil is actually a forest.
21:14 So oil is not a plantation, but a forest.
21:17 So it doesn't destroy the forest, but it reforests.
21:20 The oil plantation that was once a blue car, then it became oil.
21:23 It's like that.
21:24 There must be a kind of diplomacy that Malaysia does.
21:27 So that's our product.
21:29 But we also pay attention to the environment.
21:32 Because now all the themes are SDGs, ASG.
21:35 Whether we want to or not, we follow it.
21:37 Then we want to add value.
21:40 So it's not reduced.
21:41 From the point of view of not being stagnant.
21:43 First, the quality is improved.
21:45 Second, the value added is also improved.
21:47 And it can't be temporary.
21:49 Everything is ongoing.
21:51 And we have to be diplomatic too.
21:53 And Indonesia itself, even though it's not exported,
21:57 like oil, can be made into biodiesel, biofuel, biosurfactant.
22:01 So actually, we ourselves,
22:03 who is the oil producer who is also quite productive?
22:07 So it's still needed.
22:08 But we did face diplomacy.
22:12 Then the optimization of the agreements,
22:14 sometimes it's not optimal.
22:16 And support from the promotion side.
22:17 Sometimes we need promotion.
22:20 We still lack promotion agents, market intelligence abroad.
22:24 So it has to be developed.
22:27 Okay. From the point of view of Indonesian trade,
22:30 what is Prof. Felisa's view?
22:32 We are continuously surplusing in January.
22:35 But yesterday was small, right?
22:36 It's decreasing.
22:37 It's starting to decrease.
22:38 What can we do?
22:40 Meanwhile, we still have to look for new market forces
22:43 for our export products.
22:45 Yes, if I see it,
22:47 the decrease in commodity prices has already been seen.
22:50 The impact and the global economic delay has also been seen.
22:53 But January is usually a bit slowing down.
22:56 Because the economy is just the beginning of the year.
22:58 Later, the quarter will be over.
23:01 But the trade will increase again.
23:03 But it was added with issues like the Red Sea, Houthi.
23:07 And yesterday Israel also stated that it will continue to attack
23:10 even though it's the month of Ramadan.
23:12 This also arouses negative sentiment from the trade side.
23:15 So global trade is also expected to slow down in 2024.
23:19 We have to work harder to mitigate various things.
23:26 Because it's already in front of our eyes.
23:27 It's said that the risk is increasing.
23:30 The risk from the trade side.
23:31 So we want to continue to try to surplus.
23:34 One of the things we hope is that we can start to control the imports again.
23:39 The imports themselves.
23:40 Especially the month of Ramadan.
23:42 We have to look at the imports again.
23:44 Don't let it open.
23:45 Because we hope it will still be surplus.
23:48 If the export is a bit difficult to increase the trade price,
23:51 at least the imports will be more controlled.
23:53 But it doesn't mean that it depends on our condition.
23:57 So while we continue...
23:59 It's said that the hillarization will contribute to the increase of exports.
24:02 While we wait, it's already from hillarization to more valuable exports.
24:06 Because it doesn't depend on quantity, but on price.
24:10 If the hillarization has been running,
24:12 the export of hillarization products can be sold.
24:15 It should be able to substitute what we are losing now
24:20 because the commodity price, some profiles have dropped.
24:24 Okay.
24:26 So how optimistic are you, Prof?
24:28 With Indonesia's economy in the middle,
24:30 the threats from the global economic crisis
24:34 and the economic recession that was experienced by a number of countries.
24:38 If I learn from the pandemic,
24:41 we need to be optimistic too.
24:44 But realistically, we need to be optimistic.
24:47 Because we have experienced a huge crisis called COVID-19.
24:52 But thank God, after we can see the flashback,
24:56 we can learn a lot from COVID-19.
24:59 We can face the crisis together.
25:02 If we remember, during COVID-19, there was no war.
25:05 We were united to face the same enemy, COVID-19.
25:09 Actually, the key is that if the world is united,
25:12 there will be no war, etc.
25:13 I'm sure we can face this problem together.
25:16 So it can't be just a problem in one country.
25:18 The hope is also in the Global Forum.
25:20 Indonesia is the 20th anniversary.
25:23 We can voice this peace together,
25:27 not only for the interest of one country,
25:30 but also for the world's interest globally.
25:33 If we are in the same boat, we will be dragged into the same boat.
25:36 So that's what Indonesia can do, soft diplomacy.
25:40 Instead of forcing Russia to attack Ukraine,
25:45 or Israel to attack Palestine,
25:47 we can raise the economic issue.
25:49 Through the economic issue in G20, we can be together.
25:52 That's it.
25:53 There should be a global diplomacy like that.
25:56 But we can also strengthen the domestic example.
25:59 Okay, Prof. So the common enemy is how we stop the war.
26:04 And this gives an extraordinary impact
26:07 on the economy of a number of countries.
26:09 Maybe in three, including Indonesia.
26:11 Okay, Prof. Telisa, thank you very much
26:13 for the time and sharing you have given to the audience today.
26:16 Congratulations on continuing your activities.
26:18 Again, greetings, Prof. Thank you.
26:20 Thank you.
26:22 Okay, audience, I've been with you for an hour in Market Review.
26:26 I'm Prasetyo Ibowo,
26:28 with the Unduneri Task Force.
26:30 Thank you and see you.
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