00:00 Okay, well here with me in the studio is Douglas Yates, Professor of Political Science at the
00:04 American Graduate School and also the author of numerous publications on African politics
00:09 and natural resources. Thank you for joining us again, Professor Yates. Great to have you
00:13 with us. What's your understanding of President Macky Sall's thinking here? Why is he doing
00:19 this? Why is he talking about delaying the election?
00:21 Right, so there is the official pretext, but I don't think anybody believes them, that
00:26 there was a problem with the constitution of the constitutional court, that he wanted
00:30 to make sure the court was seen as unbiased. But here, there's nothing but a perception
00:35 of bias. So if that was his idea, it was a failure. Rather, the reports that are coming
00:39 out from kind of the behind the scenes press is that there's pressure from his own camp,
00:45 from his own camp, from the ruling party. They don't want the Prime Minister to be the
00:50 candidate. The Prime Minister's a talented, technocratic individual who is supposed to
00:55 be number two for Macky Sall. But as a candidate, he's a fish, and he's predicted to lose. And
01:02 if he loses, the party loses. Whoever's president has all the power in Senegal. And so I think
01:09 that at the last minute, his own ministers are saying, "You can't continue to endorse
01:14 this man who's going to lose. We've got to have a better plan or we're going to lose
01:19 power." And I think he's not planning himself to run for president anymore. If he had an
01:24 announce that, this would all be interpreted differently. But he probably does want his
01:29 party to remain in power.
01:31 Right, because Macky Sall's been there for 11 years. He can't constitutionally run for
01:35 a third term, can he? And therefore, you're saying that the party's trying to buy some
01:41 time to find a more promising candidate than what they've put forward so far. So in terms
01:47 of time frame, what are we talking about here? A couple of months of delay? More than that?
01:51 There was no announcement at first. We called it "sine de", but in reality, he's not trying
01:56 to, like a coup plotter, prolong his time forever. So we're looking at maybe August.
02:02 That would be reasonable. Six months would give them time to sort out what's internal
02:07 divisions in his own camp, as well as dealing with the opposition, who many of them are
02:12 taking to the streets.
02:15 And of course, Senegal is a rare country in the region where it is, in West Africa. There
02:21 have been lots of coups in that part of Africa. And yet Senegal, since independence from France
02:26 in I believe 1960, has managed not to witness any coups. I mean, could that be about to
02:32 change?
02:33 Well, some people are afraid of that. And it's a real concern, because we've had coups
02:37 in Mali, coups in Burkina Faso, coups in Niger, coups in Guinea, and in Central Africa, coups
02:44 in Gabon. There's been coups all around. But Senegal is unique. It's had three peaceful
02:49 transitions of power. 1982, Abdul Jouf came to power in a peaceful transition. After that,
02:57 1999, we had Abdulleh Wad came to power in a peaceful transition. And in 2012, Macky
03:03 Sol came to power in a peaceful transition. That's three turnovers. Senegal is a consolidated
03:09 democracy. Elections are the only game in town.
03:12 So I do not believe, I strongly do not believe, if the past is any indicator that there will
03:18 be a coup d'état in Senegal. Rather, things will calm down, and there will be elected
03:23 a new president.
03:24 Okay, so you sound quite optimistic that this will blow over. What are Senegal's allies,
03:30 meanwhile, saying at this stage? And by that, I mean, the African Union and the European
03:35 Union?
03:36 And the United States. This country as a model of democracy is an extremely important example
03:41 for the West. For France, it's one of the most democratic francophone countries left
03:46 standing. For the United States, the American presidents visit Senegal because it is a model
03:52 of democracy. For Europe, once again, it gives them a plausible interlocutor. And for ECOWAS,
04:01 who have literally lost three members, military coups who are now Russian allies, who they
04:06 had no influence over, Senegal is kind of the strongest democracy in the group. So they
04:12 have a very difficult time telling Macky Sol what to do.
04:16 In addition, because he is not presenting himself for office. So they're trying to encourage
04:22 Senegal to schedule elections. But I don't think they think this is going to be like
04:27 a military regime that's clinging to power. A few more months, and we should expect to
04:32 have elections. And after that, a new president democratically elected, either from the government
04:38 or from the opposition.
04:40 Okay, and just lastly, we haven't got much time left. Macky Sol's report card. He's been
04:45 there 11 years. Has he done a good job?
04:48 My view is economically, he did a good job. That is, he's created economic growth. He's
04:55 dealt with serious issues like the food crisis. He managed COVID during confinement. And he's
05:03 also brought Senegal into a new sector, which is oil, a dangerous sector with an oil curse,
05:09 but one which provides the government with revenues to do on social spending. He created
05:14 gender parity in the legislature. He appointed the first female prime minister. If he had
05:20 not thought of running for a third term, he probably now would be watching his endorsed
05:28 successor take office and would have enjoyed a wonderful reputation with policy accomplishments.
05:35 But he made the critical error of the temptation of power.
05:39 Okay, well, thank you very much indeed for sharing that with us. Professor Douglas, it's
05:43 It's great to have you here with us again on France 24.
05:45 [BLANK_AUDIO]
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