Can Chiefs Overcome an Underdog Status Yet Again vs. 49ers?
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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:03 So it's a one and a half point spreads, you know,
00:05 in favor of the 49ers.
00:07 We have seen some sense of movement in the money line prices
00:12 the last 48 hours or so.
00:14 Now minus 132 for San Francisco, plus 112 for Kansas City.
00:19 It was as close as an eight cent difference,
00:23 minus 112 San Francisco, minus 104 KC.
00:27 Now it's the heftiest money line price.
00:29 If you want to call it that in the last two days,
00:32 minus 132 in favor of the 49ers.
00:35 Just how razor thin are the edges for Super Bowl 58?
00:39 - I mean, the general philosophy
00:43 across all the NFL playoffs is just pick the winner.
00:46 Don't worry about the spread.
00:47 And other than the Rams covering
00:49 and not winning against the Lions,
00:50 the Packers covering and not winning against the 49ers.
00:55 And well, let's, you know,
00:56 they got backdoored theoretically,
00:58 even though it shouldn't have been that way
00:59 anyway, but the Lions didn't win,
01:00 but covered those three games.
01:02 Every other playoff game,
01:03 the winner covered the spread or was the outright winner.
01:05 So I think that kind of holds here.
01:07 I would tell you this much.
01:10 Let's see, I bet against the Chiefs of the Bills,
01:11 I bet against the Chiefs of the Ravens.
01:12 Maybe I should just make it a trifecta
01:14 and do it once again and bet against the Chiefs
01:16 with the 49ers.
01:17 But I don't know if I could stomach losing another bet
01:19 to the Kansas City Chiefs,
01:20 especially since I didn't hedge my Ravens Super Bowl future
01:23 last week and double down on them.
01:24 That said, yeah, this is going to be a very tight game.
01:27 I'll tell you what, guys,
01:28 the only real thing that jumped out to me
01:32 was the total sitting at 47 and a half when it opened,
01:35 and it hasn't moved yet.
01:36 I thought there might've been some early action
01:39 to the over, just given what we saw from the 49ers.
01:44 But really this Chiefs team plays so many damn unders
01:47 and their offense is not very good
01:50 when it comes to scoring points.
01:51 Like, do we equate the Ravens defense
01:54 and the Niners defense?
01:54 It's pretty similar, I would.
01:56 And they didn't score a single second half point
01:57 against the Ravens, and only scored 17 in the game.
02:00 So I'm kind of surprised
02:02 that we haven't seen the total move at all.
02:04 I have a play here.
02:06 I can't exactly 100% endorse it,
02:09 but if you're playing pure numbers here, Ben,
02:12 would it be the worst thing in the world
02:14 for a seven point teaser to take the Chiefs
02:16 up to eight and a half and take the total
02:17 from 47 and a half to 40 and a half and bet the over?
02:20 Because 41 is a key total.
02:22 Like, you get favorable numbers on both sides.
02:25 I know people hate teasing totals.
02:26 You're not supposed to do all those other things,
02:28 but that's the one thing situationally
02:30 from a numbers standpoint that jumped out to me.
02:33 Chiefs to eight and a half,
02:34 total down to 40 and a half and go over.
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