00:00 And to discuss this further, I'm joined by our international affairs editor, Philip Turrell.
00:05 Philip, first of all, we've seen these strikes by the US and the UK.
00:10 Will that be enough to stop the Houthis or to send them that message that they need?
00:14 I think there's, Katya, Katya Van, a general feeling in diplomatic circles that they're
00:22 rather pessimistic that this action is actually going to stop the Houthis from attacking these
00:26 ships.
00:27 There is also general frustration and annoyance that what the Houthis say are ships on their
00:33 way to Israel or ships that are being driven under the control of Israel are being hit.
00:39 When it's not just that, there are other ships as well.
00:41 We just found out earlier today that, for example, the car manufacturer Volvo has stopped
00:46 production in Belgium as a result of what has been going on with the fighting with the
00:51 Houthis.
00:52 So, I think this is a way of both the United States and Britain saying to the Houthis,
00:57 "Look, we have the means to make life difficult for you.
01:00 We want you to stop bombing and attacking these ships.
01:04 And we will carry on launching strikes against you until you do that."
01:09 The big problem for the US and the UK and anybody else who's wanting to get involved
01:14 in trying to stop the Houthi action is that it could have an adverse effect.
01:18 And that is that it could actually increase support for the Houthis from the wider Arab
01:23 population.
01:24 Remember that the Houthis are backed by Iran.
01:27 They are fighting to support Hamas, which is also backed by Iran.
01:33 And both Hamas and both the Houthis want the destruction of Israel.
01:36 And they are not seen as terrorist groups by many in the Arab world.
01:40 They're seen as resistance groups.
01:41 So that's why all this could play into the Houthis' favor in the long run, because they
01:46 will be seen as just as yet another victim in a wider conflict in the Middle East.
01:51 And on the issue of the wider conflict, that's something else that I think neither the US
01:56 nor the UK nor any of the other allies really want in the Middle East, particularly as we
02:01 see an increase in fighting over the border between southern Lebanon and northern Israel
02:05 in recent times by Hezbollah, which is also backed by Iran.
02:08 So this is really not an easy equation.
02:11 And as you were speaking, we're seeing images live from Yemen.
02:16 All these people, tens of thousands, it looks like.
02:19 But to go back to what is happening in the Red Sea, we've heard several countries express
02:25 sort of support for these retaliatory strikes, but as well as concern over that escalation,
02:32 because of course the Americans are involved, the UK is involved.
02:35 But how far really can they go in striking back and striking that balance of stopping
02:42 the Houthis without full blown war and having the Iranians get involved in all of that,
02:47 that everyone is concerned about?
02:48 Well, the Houthis have managed to survive attacks by Saudi Arabia.
02:55 Remember the Houthis are not internationally recognized in Yemen.
02:58 It's the internationally recognized government that the Houthis are fighting against, that
03:02 Saudi Arabia wants to put back into power.
03:05 And they've been fighting against the Houthis for years.
03:07 They thought that bombing and constant attacks against the Houthis would force them to surrender.
03:13 That hasn't been the case.
03:14 That has been far worse for the Houthis than what we're seeing against them in the Red
03:18 Sea.
03:19 So I don't think it's going to dent the morale of the Houthis too much.
03:22 It might stop them from attacking some ships.
03:25 Remember, we're in an election year in the US, so it's difficult to know how far Joe
03:29 Biden will be willing to go without getting his fingers burned.
03:32 Philip Turrell, thank you very much for your analysis.
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