00:00 Now with Middle East specialist Gilbert Achar. Thank you for joining us, Gilbert.
00:04 Just off the back of what our correspondent Rawad Daha was saying a moment ago, let's talk about
00:08 what this calculated retaliation from the part of Hezbollah might look like down the line. What are
00:14 your thoughts? Oh, very difficult to tell. I can't imagine anything in this regard. And this isn't the
00:24 first time that Hezbollah promises that there will be a strong retaliation, but without really
00:31 seeing anything corresponding to it. And even less so, as I think your correspondent just mentioned,
00:39 they know that they are facing the threat of a very intensive bombing campaign,
00:50 and they wouldn't want to give some kind of pretext for Israel to launch it.
00:56 Is there a risk for Hezbollah, so to speak? Could it see what's been its almost symbolic support for
01:02 Hamas backfiring it by perhaps providing Israel with some sort of pretext for a larger aggression
01:09 against it? Yes, absolutely. They are, I mean, it has definitely backfired. I mean, this way of
01:18 doing it, just within limits and trying to, you know, to appear as bringing some kind of support
01:29 to the Gazans and to Hamas in particular, while not engaging fully, not using the whole range of
01:39 weapons and missiles and rockets that Hezbollah has, especially the long range ones. This is now
01:47 turning against them in the sense that, well, they missed the opportunity of, if you want,
01:56 forcing Israel to fight a major war on two fronts. Israel bombed completely, I mean, flattened most
02:05 of Gaza. And now Israel is in a position to stop its intensive bombing campaign in Gaza,
02:12 turn in Gaza into a lower intensity kind of war, and now threatening Lebanon of an intensive
02:22 bombing campaign. And they are demanding that Hezbollah withdraws to north of the Litani,
02:29 that is some 10 kilometers north of the border. Hezbollah is really caught in a dilemma here,
02:36 because if they accept, they lose face. And if they reject this, they face this threat of
02:46 destruction. What about on Israel's side? Is Israel ready to do battle with Hezbollah and perhaps
02:53 even Iran? Well, I don't think we should take lightly Israel's threat. You know, the present
03:01 Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Galant, back in August, before October 7, before everything,
03:09 threatened to turn Lebanon back to the Stone Age. I mean, he used exactly this formula,
03:17 threatening Hezbollah in particular because of Hezbollah's military advances towards the border.
03:27 And at the beginning, I mean, of the Gaza war, the Israeli onslaught on Gaza, right after October
03:35 7, you had reports in the Israeli media of the fact that Yoav Galant was advocating from that
03:42 moment a war on the two fronts and an intensive bombing campaign on Lebanon. So I wouldn't take
03:49 that lightly at all, as some people try to do, maybe to reassure themselves. I think this is a
03:57 very serious threat, and the situation is quite dangerous for Lebanon. And it is so serious that
04:04 the French President Emmanuel Macron has called on Israel to avoid escalation in its war with Hamas,
04:10 particularly, in his words, in Lebanon. How worried is the international community about
04:15 these latest developments and this eventual spillover? Well, they are worried, of course.
04:24 France is worried because also of its historical relation with Lebanon. But the fact is that the
04:29 United States, when we say international community, the most important here is the United
04:34 States of America. And the U.S. has actually been acting as if to facilitate such an action
04:45 by Israel. The deployment of U.S. naval forces in the eastern Mediterranean was a clear sign that
04:56 the United States was there to cover Israel in its war on Gaza and possibly a retaliation also,
05:03 or I mean, a new war on Lebanon. I mean, it has been pointed to the fact that the senior
05:12 Hamas leader who has been assassinated in Beirut yesterday was someone wanted by the United States,
05:20 who was up priced, was a ransom, a reward put on his face. So, I mean, yes, the United States
05:35 might fear would be a general regional conflagration, but I can't see this happening
05:42 because the Arab states are just, you know, watching. I mean, they have done much less
05:47 towards this onslaught in Gaza than other countries like South Africa or a few Latin
05:55 American countries. All right, Gilbert, thank you so much for taking the time to
05:59 share your expertise with us. That's Middle East specialist Gilbert Achkar.
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