00:00 The United States was pivotal in organizing the hostage release, and the U.S. Secretary
00:04 of State Antony Blinken will be back in the Middle East this week to try and extend the
00:09 ceasefire even beyond the current deadline of Wednesday, when Blinken is due to land.
00:14 Let's get some analysis now with Avi Meierstein, who's joining me live from Washington.
00:19 Avi, thank you for taking the time to join us so early in the morning.
00:22 You're the founder and president of the Alliance for Middle East Peace.
00:26 Let's start first with the ceasefire that's due to expire tomorrow.
00:30 First of all, how likely do you think it is that this truce will be extended?
00:35 I think that in the early days, at least, of these extensions, the chances are greater,
00:42 because it depends on a number of factors, and one of them is actually identifying hostages.
00:47 There's a question mark about how many hostages Hamas actually has control over, compared
00:52 with other groups that may have seized or be holding hostages.
00:57 I think that's going to be one key issue.
01:00 Otherwise, I think there's pretty strong interest on all sides to extend the truce, at least
01:07 the ceasefire, the pause, however you want to refer to it, at least temporarily, because
01:13 it's provided a significant amount of respite for people in Gaza from the air war and the
01:20 ground war, and for Israelis, it's delivering critical relief in the form of bringing people
01:26 home, including kids who have been held hostage.
01:30 I think there's a lot of interest, and certainly around the world.
01:33 The United States and other countries are trying to do what they can to promote the
01:38 extension of this, at least as long as it's still enabling bringing hostages home.
01:46 What about U.S. involvement in prolonging the truce?
01:50 The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's coming into the region for the third time
01:53 since the start of the war.
01:55 He's going to be pressing for the extension of the truce.
01:58 How much leverage does the U.S. really have in what's happening at the moment in the Middle
02:02 East?
02:05 I think the U.S. leverage has been significant.
02:08 There's also news that the director of the CIA is in Qatar, as well as the head of the
02:14 Mossad from Israel, which I think points to the seriousness with which all of the parties
02:19 are taking this issue.
02:23 The U.S. and Qatar basically came together in these ceasefire deals, each one essentially
02:31 bringing to the table and making assurances on behalf of Israel and Hamas.
02:37 I think the U.S. role has been critical.
02:39 I think from a Biden administration perspective, this is a really important issue to be able
02:46 to deliver on because there's obviously a lot of debate in the United States about how
02:51 exactly to play an important role in this war.
02:57 I think one thing that people can agree on without question is trying to bring the hostages
03:02 home and trying to support all of the humanitarian needs that Palestinians in Gaza have, including
03:11 safe zones and aid and a relief from the war, which this truce has been providing.
03:18 Correct.
03:19 But given that the Israeli prime minister has made no bones about wanting to get rid
03:23 of Hamas, at some point that truce is going to have to end.
03:27 What happens then?
03:30 I think that's the real question.
03:34 While we've seen that there has been significant political pressure in Israel to continue to
03:39 do whatever they can to bring the hostages home, I haven't sensed any change in the feeling
03:46 in Israel that they need to figure out a way to remove Hamas from its ability to threaten
03:53 Israel.
03:57 President Biden has pretty much stated a similar objective or recognized that objective.
04:01 The question becomes, when we run out of negotiations around hostages, what are they able to do
04:09 along the lines of reaching that objective if that's agreed around?
04:15 Something that not a lot of people talk about, but there's always the option that Hamas decides
04:19 to lay down its arms.
04:23 I've heard reports that some Arab governments and even some other Palestinian voices may
04:28 have been urging Hamas to do that, with the idea that they might survive in other forms,
04:35 whether it's part of different political movements and things, but that they have an opportunity
04:39 to step down and end the active fighting that's taking place right now.
04:45 That's a very interesting perspective.
04:46 All right.
04:47 So, the way that we get into some near future where Hamas is gone, either by leaving itself,
04:53 putting down its own weapons, Israel getting rid of it, what happens then?
04:56 Who steps into the void?
05:00 One of the things that's really important about the temporary ceasefires we've been
05:04 seeing is that it's building some muscle tissue around countries around the world who have
05:09 a very strong interest in this, as well as, of course, Israel, Israel's immediate neighbors,
05:15 Jordan, Egypt, the Palestinian people, in coming together around the table and figuring
05:22 out how to address core issues of this conflict.
05:26 Right now, it's core issues around the crisis of the war, but the only way we're ever going
05:30 to get ourselves out of this situation and prevent ourselves from being back in a crisis
05:36 like this that will be even worse next time, because it's always worse the next time, is
05:41 by having all of those countries, the US, other G7 nations, the European Union, and
05:47 the Arab states all come together and build a serious effort that involves attending to,
05:53 of course, the humanitarian crisis, of course, a ceasefire ultimately, whenever they're able
05:58 to bring the fighting to a halt, but then also a serious diplomatic effort that is both
06:05 a reconstruction effort to rebuild, obviously, Gaza is going to need a lot of that in the
06:11 form of rebuilding buildings, but we also have to rebuild a political horizon and trust
06:18 so that people have a different way to resolve this conflict, because I think what we've
06:22 seen in these last weeks is there's pretty much no end to the amount of death and suffering
06:27 that this conflict can bring us if we don't actually bring it to a conclusion.
06:31 Avi, thanks so much for sharing your expertise with us.
06:34 Avi Meierstein, the founder and president of the Alliance for Middle East Peace.
06:37 Thank you very much.
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