00:00 On Wednesday we get the next instalment of the gripping drama of Australian inflation.
00:07 It's the monthly CPI indicator for October, otherwise known as the Fast and the Furious
00:12 13, which is the number of Fast and Furious rate hikes we've had so far.
00:16 Now the monthly CPI only includes about two thirds of the price categories of the quarterly
00:21 CPI, so it's more low budget B-movie than blockbuster.
00:26 And it's still part of the action thriller that is the Australian economy.
00:31 Will we get slugged with another rate hike in December?
00:34 Or more specifically, will the annual inflation rate go up or down?
00:40 And will that bar for the monthly rate in October be a big one like August, or a smaller
00:46 one like September, or better still, zero like May?
00:50 Luckily we have a few trailers to prepare us for the main feature.
00:54 NAB surveys businesses each month and among other things asks them what's happening to
00:58 costs and prices.
01:00 The answer in October was that they're all going down.
01:03 Standard and Poor's does a survey of purchasing managers called the PMI and also asks them
01:08 about prices.
01:09 Same answer.
01:11 And the Melbourne Institute produces a monthly unofficial inflation gauge that beats the
01:15 official ABS effort by a full three weeks.
01:19 It has collapsed.
01:20 And here's what the Reserve Bank is forecasting, although note how it went in 2020 and 2021.
01:26 So unless there's an unexpected plot twist, the monthly CPI and the quarterly one, that's
01:30 due on our screens on January the 31st, will show that inflation is falling.
01:36 As for interest rates, well that movie should have a happy ending.
01:40 No more rate hikes.
01:41 [BLANK_AUDIO]
