Prolonged ceasefire would be seen as 'net defeat' for Israel, researcher says

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00:00 I'd like to bring in Joseph Bawout, director at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy

00:04 and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

00:07 Thank you very much for joining us on the program today.

00:10 What are your hopes that there's this possibility that this current truce which we're seeing,

00:15 despite the rhetoric we're getting from the Israeli side, that the fight against Hamas

00:19 is set to continue, that this could potentially be the building block for something more permanent

00:24 and possibly even long-lasting?

00:28 Good evening and thanks for having me.

00:30 Look, without being overly pessimistic, but I would be a bit skeptical and doubtful about

00:35 the fact that this truce could be transformed into a longer-term ceasefire for many reasons.

00:42 First of all, I mean, besides the rhetoric, but also because if it stops there, seen from

00:48 an Israeli point of view, this would be more or less a net defeat, I would say.

00:54 And for Hamas, it would be a more or less clear victory.

00:57 So this, from an Israeli point of view, would not be accepted, unfortunately, because the

01:03 people will continue to suffer.

01:05 And I'm not sure that the next step of the war will be successful.

01:09 Now, the second reason for that to be transformed into a longer-term ceasefire is to have really

01:15 a relay taken by a very strong diplomatic action, at least by the U.S., some Arab actors,

01:23 and other external partners.

01:25 And so far we're not seeing that.

01:27 Additionally, I would say that the Israeli political landscape, the coalition that is

01:34 governing Israel, is very divided about this question.

01:37 And I think that for Netanyahu, it would be very politically risky for himself inside

01:42 Israel to stop at this point.

01:45 So for all these reasons, let's welcome now this five-day truce, but let's not over-expect

01:50 for the next step.

01:52 Should the strategy shift?

01:55 Because I spoke to someone earlier who said that Netanyahu has bitten off more than he

01:58 can chew by saying he wants to get rid of Hamas.

02:01 Instead, what he should be saying is we want to bring home the hostages.

02:06 This is a de-escalation in the discourse, in the Israeli discourse, that we have seen

02:12 over the last month.

02:13 It has started with the eradication of Hamas, transforming the political landscape in Gaza,

02:19 and then it became, let's say, degrading the infrastructure of Hamas and bringing the hostages

02:26 home.

02:27 But it has never been only bringing the hostages home.

02:31 If it stops there, it will be--again, I'm repeating it--by Israeli, this actual leadership

02:38 in Israel at least, it will be a net defeat and a sort of admittance that in fact Hamas's

02:45 operation was a political success.

02:48 And I frankly don't see that within the coalition that is within the government today.

02:53 But, Joseph, I just want to jump in there, because we know that Benjamin Netanyahu's

02:58 position is fragile.

03:00 Once this conflict ends, will he be able to remain prime minister?

03:04 And if he's not able to remain prime minister, that surely changes things.

03:09 This is exactly why he has a vested interest in keeping this conflict ongoing, even though

03:15 at a mid or lower-level scale of intensity.

03:20 And this is why, if you notice, there is this rift between him and the Biden administration

03:25 that is already pressing him to look forward for a political process after this operation,

03:32 something that he's unable to do, because first of all it will mean his political end,

03:37 but also it will put the ball in Israeli's camp to define what is the next step and what

03:44 is the political process.

03:45 So for all these reasons, I'm afraid that his best case option would be to continue

03:51 violence, at least at a level that is acceptable and manageable, except of course if there

03:59 is a change within the coalition, if for example General Gantz leaves the coalition, or if

04:06 there's a very forceful US pressure on Israel, which we don't see enough yet.

04:11 And Joseph, very quickly, because we're also going to see international pressure continue

04:15 to pile up.

04:16 We just had Spain's prime minister, Belgium's prime minister, who were at the Rafa border

04:21 crossing basically saying way too many people have died and violence is going to breed more

04:24 violence.

04:25 At one point, Israel is going to have to listen to the international community.

04:30 This is the rationality.

04:31 This is the rational voices.

04:33 These are the voices of analysis, of cold analysis.

04:37 But again, and I hope, I frankly, I very sincerely hope they will be heeded and heard.

04:42 And I'm very, really very hopeful that there will be a political process after.

04:47 But again, I think the political constraints of at least the Israeli side, if we're not

04:53 factoring in the other side that could have also other calculus that may be similar at

04:59 some point.

05:00 But if you don't have a very forceful political pressure from outside, and here only the US

05:07 can play this role with Israel, I think we should remain cautious, if not pessimistic.

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