Should you buy Apple stock? March 2023

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Although 25 times earnings is lower than the 40 times PE that Apple stock traded at in 2020, it’s still quite high and around 30% above the long term average.

Looking at the revenue mix, Apple now drives 80% of its revenue from products and 20% from services. But the iPhone is still the main driver, representing 50% of total revenue.

Naturally, Apple products have a lower gross margin than services. But Apple’s powerful brand means the company is able to charge higher prices for its products that its competitors. And Services brings a fast growing and high margin segment into the company’s revenue mix.

The last couple of years have been difficult for hardware companies and Apple has faced cost inflation and a number of significant supply chain issues. Trade tensions with China and COVID lockdowns have affected Apple’s production lines and caused the company to move some of its manufacturing to Vietnam with the help of Taiwanese supplier Foxconn.

Despite these headwinds, Apple’s production and revenue has been relatively stable with revenue falling only 2% last year and net income dropping only 5%. In fact, gross margins even increased from 38% in 2020 to 43% in 2022. This performance is testament to the strong management of the company and its powerful brand.

It’s this kind of solid performance that led to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway accumulating almost 16 billion shares of the company.

The 2.4 trillion valuation of Apple stock is supported by healthy free cash flow, a dividend of 90 cents and significant share buybacks which inflate the earnings per share.

However, Apple’s size inevitably affects growth. 5 year revenue growth is now clocking 10% and net income clocking 13%. If you assume Apple can continue to grow earnings at 15% per year for the next 10 years and then trades at 20 times earnings that would put the company at a valuation of 7.7 trillion.