00:00 on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Karen Fireman, Guy Damian with us for the hour tonight.
00:04 Katie Stockton, the founder of Fairleave Strategies. Welcome, Katie.
00:07 Thank you.
00:07 And we start off with a prime day. Palooza, the 48-hour sale event is currently underway.
00:12 Prices may be down for shoppers, but shares are up for Amazon investors. And a rising tide
00:16 lifting a bunch of retail boats today. Etsy, Nordstrom, Gap, Kohl's, Chewy, all seeing green
00:21 on the street. This strength comes as we await a key read on inflation due out tomorrow morning.
00:25 Consumer prices expected to grow at the slowest pace since March 2021. But will that be enough
00:30 to keep shoppers spending? You know, what's interesting is that prices have gone higher
00:37 for a lot of goods. And so we are seeing discounts, but off of a different kind of base, Guy.
00:41 No doubt about it. And your answer to your question is, as long as nothing breaks,
00:45 and when I say breaks, it's typically a stock market, consumers will spend. And it's not
00:49 to suggest everybody owns stocks, but the market goes up every day. People feel better about things.
00:53 The economy must be good. I can go out there and spend regardless of whether or not I should be.
00:57 We say it all the time. Never underestimate the U.S. consumers want to spend. Some of these
01:02 retailers have been extraordinary. Well, we talk about T.J. Maxx. I think Karen brings it up. That
01:06 stock's made an all-time high, I think, late last week, earlier this week, continues to trade higher
01:10 in earnings in August. Then the flip side of the coin is target. Exactly. Retailers that can't
01:15 figure it out. So target. So you have to you can't just sort of paint with a broad brush here.
01:20 You actually have to pick the right companies. But is Amazon the right kind of retailer for this
01:24 day and age, Karen? Well, we we don't know what the real value of the retail business is, right?
01:30 They spend so much money to build up that business. And it seems like any time they want,
01:34 they can take that spend down and we can see real operating margins as opposed to the really thin
01:38 ones here. But it's just so dominating. It's hard. I mean, I'm sure they're going to come out with
01:44 massive numbers. I don't even know that it's so much what Amazon does. It's what does it take
01:48 away from everybody else? You know, and so you talk about a target. I think a target is,
01:54 unfortunately, not the beneficiary. And then with the consumer being a little bit strapped,
01:59 you know, Wal-Mart's food business is so much better for Wal-Mart. So target, which I do own,
02:04 has been disappointing. I think that that higher good, the sort of higher margin goods that they
02:09 sell are not really what's working right now. It's not just what they take, but also the pressure
02:13 they put on the other retailers to come up with those sales and the pressure on margins that in
02:16 turn puts on their competitors. Well, so what you're saying is that maybe it's really the
02:21 competition between them all that's maybe the most important thing. And if you think about
02:25 where we're going to be for this year's Prime Day, some of the numbers I'm reading is that
02:29 the promotional kind of discount percentages are going to be pre-COVID level. In other words,
02:33 they were holding the line in Q1 and obviously there was a huge inventory correction that had
02:37 to go through. A lot of that's happened. And I think they're going to be aggressive. And I think
02:42 some more aggressive than others. So it's fascinating. In fact, Katie probably has a view
02:46 just on the relative outperformance of what retail. I mean, retail, we're going to talk about
02:51 industrials and FedEx next block, but retail's outperformed them all. Yeah, it's been outstanding,
02:56 especially from Amazon, which had a very sort of distinct bullish reversal. And you talked about
03:02 Target too. Of course, that's a downtrend. So we still want to, as technicians, always go with the
03:07 leaders, follow the momentum. And it's obviously behind Amazon, both in absolute and relative
03:13 terms. So when you say it is behind Amazon, that means there's not much left to this stock rise at
03:19 this point? No, meaning the momentum is behind it. The momentum is behind. Right. So it still
03:22 has good momentum. This rebalance news seems to have impacted it and the other mega caps to some
03:27 degree short term. But I have a feeling that should give us an opportunity to add exposure
03:33 right around earnings. Right. I mean, it's also got. Yes, you whispered that
03:38 because we're talking about prime, but I mean, obviously, it's a beneficiary of a lot of other
03:44 trends out there, including, you know, what we're doing, cloud services from my eyes, you guy.
03:48 I don't do anything, though, so it's very easy for them. No, I mean, clear. But they've had it
03:52 for seemingly forever. I mean, they were probably on the forefront of this. And Amazon's we had Jim
03:57 Osman on the show a month and a half, two months ago, and he talked about stocks potentially could
04:01 split up. And I think Tim's talked about this as well. I mean, the breakup of value of Amazon
04:05 here is probably really interesting. I'm not saying it's happening tomorrow, but I think
04:09 with this little stealth rally, more and more people say, you know, maybe there's a chance
04:12 that they spin out a W.S. Maybe the sum of the parts becomes an interesting story.
04:17 And oh, by the way, maybe they have those tailwinds. Katie just said technically.
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