00:00So Netflix, really, really strong day yesterday.
00:03Opened around 1,200, peaked at about 1,247, closed at about 1,239.
00:08We're actually trading up towards yesterday's intraday high here in the pre-market.
00:12Remember, they have earnings tonight.
00:15Let me go back to, oh, you know what?
00:16Let me go to the daily chart here just to kind of give you an idea of where we're sitting.
00:20I know we were talking before when we were waiting for this.
00:23We really wanted Netflix to pull back to the 200-day.
00:26We got a pullback towards the 200-day, but never really quite got there.
00:30Now it actually looks like it's recaptured a lot of these, kind of in the sideways move here.
00:35Let's see what the options are predicting here for Netflix.
00:39Market makers are predicting a $80 move.
00:43$80 move here for Netflix, currently sitting at 1,238.
00:47I mean, this thing could easily make a run at all-time highs if it does end up trading higher here on the back of that earnings report.
00:54Let's dive into what's expected here.
00:57Streaming giant Netflix no longer reports subscriber figures with its quarterly result,
01:02which could make management commentary on past and future content even more important
01:08in reading between the lines of how the company is keeping its current subscribers and trying to add more.
01:14The company reports third-quarter financial results on Tuesday after the market closes.
01:18Here are some of those estimates.
01:20Analysts expect Netflix to report third-quarter revenue of $11.51 billion.
01:25That would be up from $9.82 billion last year's third quarter.
01:29The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in eight straight quarters.
01:34So pretty good winning streak here.
01:36If that turns around, I think that could actually kind of be bad.
01:39We'll see how the market behaves here today.
01:42But eight straight quarters in a row of beating those estimates.
01:44Analysts expect Netflix to report third-quarter earnings per share of $6.97, up from $5.40 in last year's third quarter.
01:52The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in six straight quarters and nine of the past 10 quarters overall.
01:59So revenue in eight straight, EPS in six straight, but also nine of the last 10.
02:03Pretty good track record here.
02:05I think if they miss, that actually sets up for a pretty good down move.
02:08I don't know if that's the case.
02:09Honestly, I really don't think, I suspect, gun to my head, I suspect Netflix is going to beat here today and trade higher.
02:17That's just kind of where I'm at right now.
02:19A strong content lineup that included K-pop demon hunters.
02:24Got to say, I have no familiarity with this, so I'm going to have to lean on the group to tell me if this is any good.
02:30A current lineup that included K-pop demon hunters and several live sporting events could help the company match guidance.
02:36Bank of America securities analyst Jessica Reif Elric said in a recent investor note.
02:42The analyst reiterated a buy rating in a $14.90 price target ahead of the quarterly results.
02:48Elric sees subscriber momentum in the quarter coming from ad-supported plans and live events.
02:55Elric also highlighted Netflix integration with Amazon in the fourth quarter, which will expand ad buying options.
03:01The analyst said that the integration could improve Netflix's ad demand.
03:06Now, I think what this means, I obviously use Prime for a number of things that I watch.
03:13I also use YouTube on Sundays to watch the Sunday ticket.
03:19And I've noticed that whenever I use those apps, there are ads like the commercial that plays.
03:25There's a button, you just press the OK button on your remote and it immediately takes you to the checkout for that.
03:31I wonder if they're going to kind of fold some of this in.
03:34And I guess my question for the group here, has any of you, have any of you folks actually bought a product from an ad that you were given on Prime, Netflix or otherwise?
03:44I see those. I know they're trying to make it easier to buy.
03:50I get it. It just hasn't worked for me.
03:52I kind of think I might be in the minority there.
03:54So I'd be curious if anyone has actually seen a commercial, been like, oh, I need product.
04:00Let me buy it real quick and carried that through.
04:03Kenneth says no way.
04:05Yeah, that's kind of the way I feel.
04:06Cam says nope.
04:08With you on that, to me, I don't I know that they're kind of forecasting some of this.
04:13It's just I don't have any way to really compare that myself.
04:16I'm not moved by these ads, if you will.
04:21Netflix is let's see.
04:23Here are some other analyst ratings and price targets.
04:26Seaport Global went from neutral to buy in a 1385 target.
04:31Citigroup has a neutral rating, but raised the price target to 1295 from 1280.
04:36Loop Capital upgraded from hold to buy and the price target went from 1150 to 1350.
04:41Netflix's third quarter content slate includes the highly successful K-pop Demon Hunters movie,
04:47a second season of Wednesday, several live events, and the third season of Squid Game,
04:52which came out only a couple of days left in the quarter.
04:55K-pop Demon Hunters is an animated kids movie.
04:57It's the streamer's most popular movie of all time by viewers, man, and was a surprise smash hit in the quarter.
05:05The firm had 325.1 million views and ranked in the top 10 Netflix English language films for 17 weeks.
05:16I definitely seem to be the boomer there.
05:18I've never even heard of this.
05:20Along with high viewership, the movie saw a short theatrical run for a sing-along version.
05:24That's been a strong consumer product staple and has songs that topped Billboard's charts
05:31and will likely see some more of the most popular Halloween costumes for kids this year.
05:36The film debuted on Netflix on June 20th, which was in the second quarter,
05:39but the majority of the film's success will be in the third quarter.
05:43It has been some time since the streaming giant has had this much fanfare around it,
05:49dating back to the early days of the first season of Squid Game on Netflix.
05:52I remember that Netflix actually was a great trade around that first Squid Game season.
05:56While Netflix had a strong lineup content in the third quarter,
05:59investors and analysts will want to hear more about the fourth quarter lineup
06:02and what the company's expectations are for revenue and subscriber growth.
06:07Remember, the big thing for me, Netflix has multiple NFL games coming up in this fourth quarter here.
06:13To me, that's the one thing in the history of the company that has moved me to buy the streaming service.
06:19It did it last year, and it's going to do it again.
06:22Full stop.
06:22So I think that there's actually going to be some pretty good stuff coming up in this quarter,
06:27which is also one of the reasons why I'm interested in it for this particular earnings season.
06:31The company has a fifth and final season of Stranger Things coming in the fourth quarter
06:35and will also release two NFL games on Christmas Day.
06:39These items could be among the most viewed Netflix programs of all of 2025,
06:44and both of them come in the fourth quarter.
06:46While Netflix doesn't break out subscriber growth figures or estimates,
06:51revenue growth in regions and overall, along with the updates of the overall health,
06:55could signal higher membership figures.
06:57The company highlighted more members, higher pricing, and higher advertising revenue
07:01as the season's second quarter revenue and operating margins were higher year over year.
07:07A Netflix ad-supported plan is another big area where analysts will be focused,
07:11as this is one of the key growth catalysts for the company as subscriber growth matures.
07:16The company looks to boost revenue per subscriber.
07:20Their earnings report from Netflix comes as the streaming giant faces pressure from billionaire
07:24Elon Musk and the Pentagon over content deemed woke.
07:29Musk calls for his followers to cancel Netflix, but that came well into the fourth quarter.
07:33Whether the company's comments on subscriber strength or if it's seeing any high cancellation figures
07:39remains to be seen.
07:40So I don't have any info or line on that.
07:44Personally, I wouldn't trade it based on that catalyst alone, but that's just me.
07:48I'm more interested in what kind of forecasts they have for those NFL games.
07:54Again, last year they went off without a hitch.
07:57This was after the Jake Paul fight, which was marred with a whole bunch of streaming problems.
08:01They had it all solved for last year.
08:03I would imagine the same is going to be true this year.
08:05And I suppose I look forward to buying another month of Netflix so I can watch my NFL games.
Comments