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  • 2 years ago
Steven Ehrlich, the director of digital assets for Forbes, joins "Forbes Talks" to discuss why crypto tokenization is failing despite having top-tier backers such as Goldman Sachs and McKinsey.
Transcript
00:00 Hi everyone, I'm Rosemary Miller here with Stephen Ehrlich, the Director of Digital Assets
00:08 here at Forbes, here to tell us about why crypto tokenization hasn't gained much traction
00:14 after nearly a decade.
00:16 Thank you so much for joining me today, Steve.
00:18 Thanks Rosemary.
00:19 So Steve, as I just said, crypto tokenization hasn't gained much traction after nearly a
00:25 decade after much development and support from top tier backers like Goldman Sachs and
00:30 McKinsey.
00:32 Why is that?
00:34 So tokenization really is kind of, I would almost say it's the great white whale of crypto.
00:42 It's as you said, it's been around for almost a decade.
00:45 To just quickly define it, it's the idea of creating digital representations of various,
00:51 what's called like real world assets or RWAs on top of a blockchain, be it Ethereum, Polkadot,
00:58 Avalanche, Solana, what have you.
01:01 And the idea behind tokenization is that by putting these assets on a blockchain, which
01:07 runs 24/7, 365, with near instantaneous settlement, these assets can become much more liquid,
01:14 it can be much more divisible.
01:16 So theoretically, you could take a share of a private equity fund and let someone purchase
01:21 it at a much smaller entry price than before.
01:25 And sort of this liquid utopia would just usher in a new era of financial wellness.
01:32 That's kind of like the flowery outlook on it.
01:37 And it's been talked about for years, been going all the way back to 2015, 2016, when
01:42 sources of major banks were leading nine figure fundraisers to create blockchain platforms
01:49 that purport to act like real blockchains, but don't have the tokens and sort of the
01:54 anonymous nodes on top of them to facilitate everything from high finance structured products
02:02 to tokenizing gold and liquid assets like treasuries to even tokenizing shares of stock.
02:12 But back then, I mean, those were pilots, those were POCs, some of them were successful,
02:17 they were all announced to great fanfare, but didn't really amount to much.
02:20 And I think honestly, starting this summer, when BlackRock announced that it was issuing
02:27 or trying to issue a Bitcoin spot ETF, tokenization all of a sudden became a big thing again,
02:33 where exchanges like the London Stock Exchange, banks like Citi and JP Morgan, HSBC, and the
02:40 list goes on and on, are now doing token projects again.
02:45 And I wanted to kind of look at the canonical history of tokenization to just see if anything
02:51 was going to be different this time, because we've been having prognostications of billions
02:54 of dollars of impact from tokenization for years, and it just has not amounted to much
02:59 yet.
03:01 So what challenges and debates have held back the adoption of tokenization in the financial
03:05 sector?
03:07 So this is a really important question, because there's a few.
03:10 I mean, for one, the industry still hasn't agreed on what types of assets are the best
03:17 candidates for tokenization.
03:19 I mean, right now, the best or most successful application of tokenization is in stablecoins.
03:27 These are digital dollar representations on top of blockchains.
03:31 I think the total market cap for those is somewhere around $120, $125 billion, two thirds
03:37 of which is run by a somewhat shadowy outfit called Tether.
03:42 And these tokens are primarily used to help facilitate trading in offshore exchanges,
03:48 so not exactly the type of economic value that we're all looking for.
03:52 In 2018, shares of a hotel in Aspen, Colorado were tokenized and sold, but that was kind
03:58 of seen as a poster child for I think what not to do and is seen as a bit of a joke in
04:03 the industry.
04:05 Some people are trying to tokenize stocks and treasuries and very liquid assets, and
04:09 there's questions as to do you really need a blockchain to do this?
04:12 And then for some of the more structured finance products like nine figure, 10 figure bond
04:17 issuances, for instance, those have proven to be successful in kind of pilots and POCs
04:24 and closed off controlled environments.
04:27 And that's all well and good.
04:28 The math on tokenization, the idea of moving something from a T5 settlement to a T0 settlement
04:33 or near instantaneous settlement makes a lot of sense.
04:36 But then the trick becomes, OK, it works under this environment with perfect conditions.
04:41 How do we make it interoperable with every other bank and every other central bank doing
04:46 the same thing?
04:47 We can't just have a web of silos.
04:50 There has to be ways to communicate for assets to move from one platform to another.
04:54 And that's a big hurdle, I think, for a lot of institutions to overcome that are already
04:59 skeptical of sharing tech stacks with with some of their competitors, because you have
05:06 to find a way to make this interoperable.
05:08 The buzzword I keep hearing is secondary market liquidity.
05:10 There has to be a resale market for all of this stuff.
05:13 Otherwise, banks and institutions aren't going to want to keep that under balance if they
05:16 can't offload it, if they can't lend it, if they can't sell it.
05:20 And that's a huge problem for that use case, which I do believe is the best use case for
05:24 tokenization.
05:25 So why does it still seem so far from becoming mainstream?
05:33 It's really funny.
05:34 I hosted a panel last week in Barcelona at the European Blockchain Convention on tokenization.
05:41 Interestingly, I hosted it about an hour or two after the story published, which led to
05:46 some led to a curious discussion.
05:50 There are some on the panel that debated whether or not like eight to 10 years is a fair amount
05:55 of time to judge a technology.
05:58 I mean, they pointed out how the Internet took decades to develop.
06:02 They point out how Bitcoin itself just celebrated its 15th birthday yesterday on Halloween night
06:09 and crypto is still looking for its use case.
06:12 So they they pushed back a little bit on the contention I made that tokenization has had
06:19 a long enough runway to show some results.
06:23 But at the same time, I just at this point, I don't think it's a technological problem.
06:28 I think the technology to do this is well and good.
06:33 It works.
06:34 It is available.
06:36 It's more of like a game theory, economic, political issue where you need to corral all
06:43 these institutions.
06:44 And I'm not just talking about private finance institutions.
06:47 I'm talking about central banks, because for any of these instruments, there needs to be
06:51 a tokenized electronic form of a dollar, a euro, a yen, what have you.
06:58 And that either means tokenizing private deposits at commercial banks or issuing digital central
07:06 bank digital currencies, all of which has to work.
07:08 And that just a lot of projects in the past failed because companies could not agree on
07:14 a tech stack and then find a way to expand it.
07:17 And I'm not sure that this current incarnation of startups has found the code to crack that
07:25 problem just yet.
07:28 So what exactly needs to change?
07:30 What exactly needs to change for it to be widely adopted?
07:35 So I think, again, there's two things that need to happen for this technology to be widely
07:40 adopted.
07:41 There needs to be some sort of agreement on the right types of assets that should be tokenized.
07:48 Not everything that can be tokenized should be tokenized.
07:51 And I think the lowest hanging fruit in that realm is probably like Wall Street, like very
08:00 expensive structured products, because at the end of the day, I mean, I was speaking
08:05 with a lawyer earlier today and he kind of put it in a very succinct, nice way.
08:10 All that these banks want is a way to quickly clear and settle instruments amongst themselves.
08:15 I mean, that's really what they're looking for.
08:19 And then it just comes down to picking up the tech stack.
08:22 There's a couple of different flavors for this and banks and institutions are testing
08:27 it right now.
08:28 I mean, one, there is the permissioned approach where there are these, I guess I would consider
08:34 to be private blockchains where they operate sort of like Bitcoin or Ethereum.
08:40 They have no tokens because only authorized nodes, authorized participants are allowed
08:44 to join these networks and they all kind of work together to clear and settle trades.
08:49 And there's no need for a token because they don't need that economic incentive for for
08:55 pseudonymous entities around the world to work together towards a common aim.
08:59 They're already doing that and they know each other and the benefits will come from the
09:02 cost savings and efficiency improvements.
09:07 That's one element of it.
09:09 The trick, at least for that, is, again, getting everybody to agree, getting everybody to trust
09:14 each other on a piece of infrastructure, which is harder to do than you would think.
09:19 I mean, for instance, JP Morgan years ago created their own platform called Quorum and
09:24 they tried to get banks and institutions to participate.
09:28 And they basically scoffed because why would we trust JP Morgan with commissioning critical
09:33 infrastructure for us?
09:34 It actually had to be kind of allowed into its own separate entity.
09:37 And we're going to kind of see what happens with that.
09:39 On the other angle, there is a bit of a growing movement to try to do some of this on public
09:45 blockchains like Ethereum.
09:47 Avalanche is another one which has some sort of subnets where you can create like a sort
09:52 of a public private hybrid separate entity on these blockchains and therefore you don't
09:59 have to necessarily trust one entity with it and you get a lot of the efficiency and
10:03 throughput improvements that are promised by blockchains.
10:06 But then the question there becomes, OK, risk departments at banks will have to do with
10:11 that.
10:12 What I'm trying to say here is like your question was like, what needs to change?
10:16 The industry is still wrestling with the same questions it wrestled with years ago.
10:21 There's more context behind these questions, but it's still like, what are the best use
10:26 cases and what are the best tech solutions?
10:31 And this sort of like endless parade of pilot projects hopefully will get closer to that
10:36 answer.
10:37 It needs to for tokenization to succeed.
10:39 Well, thank you so much for joining me today, Steve.
10:43 Thanks, Rosemary.
10:44 Thank you.
10:45 Take care.
10:45 [END]
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