Target This QB's Passing TD Prop For The 2023 NFL Season

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Transcript

00:00 (upbeat music)

00:03 - Let's start with a quarterback.

00:05 Why do you think Joe Burrow has a good year for Cincinnati?

00:09 - Well, starting off with season-long props,

00:11 they can be super tough to do,

00:13 especially, you know, this far out,

00:15 but I like to correlate season-long props

00:17 with season-long award markets.

00:19 So if we look at the NFL MVP odds,

00:22 Burrow, Mahomes, and Josh Allen are all tied

00:25 as co-favorites at plus 700 for the shortest odds.

00:27 So Burrow's expected to have a huge season.

00:30 He's had 34 and 35 touchdowns in the past two seasons.

00:33 And if we look back over the past 10 years,

00:35 a quarterback has won the MVP award

00:37 in each of those 10 seasons,

00:38 and only one time did a quarterback finish

00:41 with fewer than 33 touchdowns.

00:42 That was Tom Brady in 2017.

00:44 So if we use the award market as an indication,

00:48 if Burrow is quote-unquote a favorite to win that award,

00:50 he's likely going to need to have at least 33 touchdowns

00:54 to put himself in a spot to win that award.

00:56 Yeah, we can look at all those underlying metrics

00:58 of touchdown rate and the Bengals passing rate.

01:00 Those are all phenomenal.

01:01 I will say they are, a lot of the insecurity

01:04 or the uncertainty about their team

01:05 comes from their offensive line,

01:07 which is actually ranked 17th right now,

01:09 according to PFF, which seems very mediocre.

01:11 It was actually set 11 spots higher

01:13 compared to the end of 2022.

01:14 And they also have the top-ranked wide receiver unit.

01:17 So Burrow is unbelievable,

01:19 and he's likely going to need to have a huge season

01:21 if he were to be in a spot to win that award.

01:23 (upbeat music)

01:26 [MUSIC]