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A detailed look at the declining pupil numbers in London schools, fueled by decreased birth rates and increased living costs. We examine the data and discuss what this trend means for the future of education in the capital and beyond.

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00:00Why are so many London schools closing down? The number of pupils in the city is falling,
00:04fuelled by declining birth rate and rising costs for housing and childcare.
00:08More than 90 schools in the capital have either closed or merged over the past five years,
00:12according to London councils. And according to the Education Policy Institute,
00:16nine of the UK's ten fastest-shrinking local authorities for primary school children are in
00:20London. This is not just a problem for primary schools. Secondary school numbers, which have
00:25been rising until 2026, will start to fall next year, said Chris Smith in the Financial Times.
00:31But London's overall population is on the rise. In the decade up to 2023, the population increased
00:36by more than 500,000, according to London Assembly Economy, Culture and Skills Committee data.
00:42Other major European cities are also experiencing a similar decline, said the Financial Times.
00:46Primary school enrolment in Paris has fallen by a quarter in the last ten years,
00:50while the same group in New York fell almost 20% in the decade to autumn 2024.
00:54So why is this happening? Many experts think unaffordable housing and childcare are the main
00:59causes. The typical London home costs 11.1 times the average salary, compared to 7.7 times across
01:05England more broadly. Rents in London are also 60% higher than for England as a whole,
01:10and nursery costs for a child under two in inner London are 34% higher than the English average.
01:16The birth rate in London also continues its steady downward march, said the Telegraph.
01:20Many fertility rates in London hovered just above one birth per woman in 2024,
01:25where 2.1 is needed to maintain a population without external migration.
01:29However, some initiatives in Europe have succeeded in stopping this trend, said the Financial Times.
01:34In Vienna, authorities provide family-sized homes, often through large-scale subsidised or municipal
01:39housing. Copenhagen also implements strong childcare and parental leave policies.
01:44The demographics of both cities buck the trend of falling child numbers.

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