- 14 hours ago
Putin can’t stop with Ukraine. Here’s who Russia may target next—and why the danger is growing.
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
What happens after the war in Ukraine ends? In this video, Elvira Bary explains why Putin’s regime cannot survive without the appearance of constant strength—making new conflict not a possibility but an expectation. Through an analysis of the Kremlin’s strategic storytelling, political constraints, and opportunistic pressure points, this episode examines potential targets: the Baltic states, Moldova, Central Asia, and Europe’s critical infrastructure. It also explores how hybrid warfare, covert sabotage, and non-military influence campaigns offer the Kremlin cheaper, lower-risk ways to project power. Understanding these scenarios reveals the structural logic behind authoritarian expansion and the risks facing Europe in the years ahead.
Video Chapters:
00:00 Putin’s Hit List: Which Countries Is Russia Targeting Next?
02:53 Victory at Any Cost
06:15 Choosing His Prey
08:40 Risky Bet
11:42 Shelved Leverage
15:41 Turn Around
18:57 A Smarter Option
JOIN ME ON THE JO
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
What happens after the war in Ukraine ends? In this video, Elvira Bary explains why Putin’s regime cannot survive without the appearance of constant strength—making new conflict not a possibility but an expectation. Through an analysis of the Kremlin’s strategic storytelling, political constraints, and opportunistic pressure points, this episode examines potential targets: the Baltic states, Moldova, Central Asia, and Europe’s critical infrastructure. It also explores how hybrid warfare, covert sabotage, and non-military influence campaigns offer the Kremlin cheaper, lower-risk ways to project power. Understanding these scenarios reveals the structural logic behind authoritarian expansion and the risks facing Europe in the years ahead.
Video Chapters:
00:00 Putin’s Hit List: Which Countries Is Russia Targeting Next?
02:53 Victory at Any Cost
06:15 Choosing His Prey
08:40 Risky Bet
11:42 Shelved Leverage
15:41 Turn Around
18:57 A Smarter Option
JOIN ME ON THE JO
Category
📚
LearningTranscript
00:00Picture this. A pistol is signed tomorrow. Cameras flash. Diplomats shake hands.
00:07Commentators speak about a new chapter for Europe. People dare to exhale for the
00:13first time in years. But beneath that hopeful surface, something far more dangerous is already
00:21moving. Because if Putin leaves Ukraine intact, even wounded, even smaller, he faces a crisis inside
00:31his own system. A dictator who built his power on victories cannot survive a peace that exposes
00:39weakness. So the moment this war ends, he will look for the next one. And the question is no longer
00:48if
00:49or even when. But where? I am Vera Barry, a writer born in the Soviet Union, and tonight
00:58we will examine why Putin's regime cannot exist without war and which countries lie in the path
01:06of his next search for strength. Here is our roadmap. Victory at any cost. Why peace threatens Putin more
01:17than war. Choosing his prey. The storytelling, loopholes, and levers he needs before striking.
01:27Risky bet. The scenario where he tests NATO through the Baltics. Sheld leverage. The playbook for
01:36destabilizing and reshaping Moldova. Turn around. Why Central Asia may become the next proving ground.
01:45A smaller option. How hybrid warfare could deliver victories without tanks.
01:51Let's begin with the core of the problem. The part most Western commentators still misunderstand.
02:00For Putin, war is not a strategy. It's a survival mechanism. Every dictator builds his regime
02:07on one thing he must never lose. The illusion of strength. And in Putin's system, that illusion has been
02:17maintained for two decades, not through prosperity or innovation, but through spectacle. Crimea,
02:25Syria, little victories staged for television, each one sold as proof that Russia is rising
02:34and its leader is untouchable. Ukraine was supposed to be the biggest spectacle of all. Instead, it became
02:44the moment the mask slipped. And this is where our story truly begins. Victory at any cost.
02:57Putin's system is built on one simple rule. The leader must look strong at all times. Not even to the
03:06people.
03:06They are kept quiet by television, police and fear. He must look strong to his own elites. Governors,
03:15security chiefs, state bankers and big businessmen. If they start thinking that the czar has failed,
03:23the whole pyramid begins to shake. For 20 years, the regime sold a clear deal. You stay out of politics
03:33and in return, we give you rising incomes, stability and the feeling that Russia is great again.
03:42Foreign policy became the main stage for that feeling. Each war or operation, Georgia,
03:50Crimea, Syria was presented as a victorious show that proved Putin's skill and Russia's greatness.
03:57Ukraine was supposed to be the biggest show of all, a quick march on Kyiv, a new friendly government,
04:03parades and flags. Instead, it turned into a long meat grinder. Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers
04:11have been killed or wounded. Huge amounts of money are poured into the army and the defense industry.
04:19The war is the budget and yet there is still no clear victory to sell. From the perspective of a
04:28normal
04:29person. This is a reason to stop and rethink what am I doing wrong from the perspective of a
04:39personalist dictator. It creates a new threat. A regime that had used war as proof of competence for years
04:46cannot suddenly say, sorry it didn't work. Let's talk about peace now. If Putin says anything like that,
04:56elites will start to doubt whether the boss can still protect them. So, the logic flips.
05:05Peace becomes risky. War, or at least the performance of strength looks safer. Research on
05:13personalist regimes shows the same pattern again and again. Such leaders start more conflicts,
05:19misjudge risks, misjudge risks more often. They are more willing to sacrifice their own citizens
05:25anything to avoid looking weak in front of their inner circle. The goal is not to take over some
05:33specific city or resource. Oil, gas and metals can be bought on the markets. Even at big prices,
05:42it's much cheaper than going to war. The goal is to prove that you are still strong. You can attack,
05:50hurt and force others to back off. Like a school bully, a dictator needs a scene where he beats someone
06:00and gets away with it. If one victim fights back too hard, the bully scans the holes for someone smaller,
06:10more isolated or unprepared, choosing his prey.
06:18At a glance, it looks like Putin has a lot of options, but there are still certain constraints.
06:27He needs a target that lets him do three things at once. Perform strength, tell a simple and relatable
06:35story and avoid a clash so strong it could blow up the regime. Let's walk through how he'll be choosing
06:43his next target. First, he needs a story. Every operation must be wrapped in some moral cover.
06:53Protecting Russian speakers, fighting terrorists, saving traditional values, rescuing allies from a
07:00foreign plot. That is why the Kremlin invests so much in TV and Telegram. The war is filmed before it
07:10is fought.
07:11Hybrid campaigns in Moldova, for example, always come with local pro-Russian channels
07:17shouting that the West wants to enslave or sell the country, while Moscow offers order and cheap gas.
07:27Second, any gray zones and loopholes to exploit. A full invasion of a NATO country is one thing. Hiring
07:35people to cut cables, burn warehouses or run cyber attacks in NATO countries is another. Such moves
07:43do a lot of damage, yet technically they don't qualify as military aggression and don't expose Russia to
07:53NATO retaliation. Third, local levers. That could be a frozen conflict like Transnistria. It could be
08:03political parties on Moscow's payroll. It could be an army base, peacekeeping force or a security treaty such as
08:13CSTO. Fourth, the price tag. Russia already spends huge sums on the war and security, around 7% of GDP
08:24and roughly 40% of the federal budget in 2025. It doesn't really have much more money to pour in,
08:32so any new operation would better be affordable. Risky bet. The Baltics
08:42On paper, the Baltic states look like a tempting target. Tiny countries on Russia's border with
08:49Russian-speaking minorities. Part of the historical Russian Empire. If Putin could invade them and have
08:58NATO swallow it, not fight for Narva, it would be the biggest propaganda victory of his life.
09:05But here's the gap between his fantasy and reality. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are not alone. They are
09:15NATO and EU members with allied troops on their soil, elaborate defense plans and a clear legal guarantee.
09:25An attack on them is an attack on all of NATO. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine,
09:34the alliance has strengthened its eastern flank, moved more forces to Poland and the Baltics, and rehearsed
09:42scenarios where reinforcements cross the Suvalki gap fast. That is why a classic tank invasion of the
09:51Baltics still looks like a low-probability scenario. Much more realistic is a long campaign of pressure
10:00and probing. Russian planes fly close to NATO airspace. Ships and civilian vessels circle undersea pipelines and
10:11cables. NATO countries keep catching suspicious activities around critical infrastructure in the
10:19Baltic Sea. This scenario is already at play. Since Sweden joined NATO, its officers say they detect Russian
10:28submarines in the Baltic almost weekly. Crews talk about hearing unknown engines on sonar in the middle of
10:37routine patrols. Then, having to decide in minutes how close to let them come to Swedish waters.
10:45It is not war, but it is not peace either. It is a constant test of nerves. For the Kremlin,
10:55the gains here are
10:57limited but useful. Raise insurance costs for their ports and pipelines. Show your own elites that
11:07NATO is scared of us. Look how they complain every time we fly near their borders. At the same time,
11:15you stay just below the line where the Alliance would have to respond with force. The risks are still real.
11:25A drone can hit the wrong ship. A submarine can cause an accident. In a crisis, all these small games
11:34could
11:34suddenly add up to a direct confrontation no one wanted or prepared for. Shelved leverage. Moldova
11:46If the Baltics are the dangerous option, Moldova is the easy one. No NATO membership. Almost no army. A pro
11:57-EU
11:57government that Moscow openly hates. And inside the country, several ready-made levers. Transnistria.
12:06A breakaway region that Russia has supported since the early 90s. A Russian peacekeeping force
12:14stationed in that region. Pro-Russian parties, local media and businessmen. Here, the Kremlin's goal is to
12:22change Moldova's course. Replace President Maya Sandu and her allies with a more convenient government.
12:32Derail EU accession. Prove that even after Ukraine, Moscow can still decide who rules in its old backyard.
12:42A bonus prize would be to formalize control over Transnistria. Russia is already running this play.
12:50With a wide hybrid campaign. Funding parties that promise neutrality and cheap gas. Spreading
13:00disinformation. Organizing protests. Trying to buy votes using criminal networks for
13:07intimidation and street actions. Over the past two years, Moldovan authorities detained dozens of people
13:15they say were trained abroad and sent back to provoke unrest before elections.
13:21There is also open disrespect for Moldovan sovereignty. In 2024, Russia opened multiple
13:27polling stations for its own presidential election in Transnistria, despite Kicinau's objections and
13:34previous agreements. Moldova responded by expelling a Russian diplomat. What does Putin get if he succeeds here?
13:43First, a psychological victory. Prove that the EU cannot protect its small neighbors from Russian
13:53interference and that color revolutions can be reversed. Second, a military and intelligence
14:02foothold between Ukraine and Romania. Even without big bases, Transnistria already hosts Russian troops and
14:11ammunition depots. Any upgrade could threaten Ukraine's southwest and complicate NATO planning in the Black Sea region.
14:22But Moldova is not as helpless as it looks. The country has EU candidate status and growing Western support.
14:32Financial aid, energy help and reforms are making it less dependent on Russian gas and trade.
14:40Even Transnistria's own economy relies on access to EU markets through Moldovan agreements.
14:47That limits how far local elites there want to go in a crisis. And Moldovan society has watched what Russian
14:56protection looks like in Ukraine. Support for the EU path is strong enough that Kremlin-backed candidates
15:04have lost all big elections. For the Kremlin, the risks are manageable, but non-zero. An open move,
15:14such as sending more troops into Transnistria or staging violent unrest, could drag in Romania a native member
15:24and trigger a larger crisis that Moscow cannot control. A failed attempt to overthrow the government in
15:32Chisinau would also be a loud, visible defeat.
15:42In Central Asia, Putin does not need new territories. He needs to prove that Russia is still the main boss
15:50in this part of its old empire. The perfect picture for his TV might look like this. There is unrest,
15:59local leaders wobble, then Russian troops or advisors arrive, restore order and fly home.
16:08That was the script in Kazakhstan in January 2022. Under the CSTO brand, a new thousand troops flew in,
16:19helped the sitting president crush the protests and left within days. On paper, it was collective security.
16:27On Russian TV, it was a reminder. We can still send soldiers abroad and decide who stays in power.
16:35The Kremlin's goal in this region is control. Moscow wants presidents in Astana,
16:40Bishkerk and Dushanba to know that only Russian backing can save them from protests, coups or Islamist threats.
16:49That gives the Kremlin leverage over everything else – military bases, transit routes, sanctions evasion,
16:58energy exports and votes in international bodies. There is also huge social lever – migration.
17:07Millions of Central Asians work in Russia. In recent years, close to half of Tajikistan's GDP and around
17:16a quarter of Kyrgyzstan's have come from money sent home by migrants, most of it from Russia. Take those
17:24workers away or suddenly block transfers and whole villages lose their income. At the same time,
17:31Russia's own war economy badly needs these migrants to keep construction and services running while
17:38Russian men are mobilized or leave the country. How strong are these states as potential victims?
17:53Kyrgyzstan has its own energy exports, a careful multi-vector policy and rising links with China,
18:02Turkey and the EU. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are much more dependent, but even if they are trying to
18:10diversify transit and finance and to use Russia, China and the West against each other.
18:17Public opinion, in Kazakhstan especially, has hardened against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and
18:25opened threats from Russian politicians about historical lands. For Putin, the risks here are
18:32different from Europe. Every heavy-handed move will push Central Asian elites closer to Beijing and away
18:42from the Russian sphere of influence. Yet the temptation remains because small victorious operations
18:49in this region are cheap and involve no risk of direct confrontation with NATO.
18:55A smarter option. Hybrid warfare. If you look only at land borders, you miss half the picture.
19:06For Putin's regime, some of the cheapest victories lay in fear. A burned logistics center here. A card cable
19:15there. A strange drone over a foreign port. No formal war, just the feeling that Russia can reach you
19:24any time. European security services are now talking about a shadow war. Investigations in the UK, Poland,
19:32Germany and other states show the same pattern. Small cells, often young men recruited online and paid in
19:41crypto, are sent to planned devices near rail lines, warehouses and power infrastructure. Some plots were
19:49stopped. Some led to real fires and damage. These are not big operations in military terms, but each one
19:57feeds three messages. To the West, you are vulnerable. To Ukraine, your allies can be scared. And to Russian
20:09elites, our enemies are afraid to answer directly. Let's see, the same logic plays out. A recent case,
20:16the Eagle Ass incident showed how a single suspicious tanker with ties to Russia's shadow fleet can force
20:24navies and lawyers to argue for weeks about what is legal to inspect and what counts as an attack.
20:34Sometimes the theater moves even farther west. During Zelensky's visit to Ireland, five large
20:42military-style drones flew near an Irish naval vessel guarding his arrival. Irish authorities are now
20:50investigating it as a possible Russian intelligence operation launched from a ship in the Irish Sea.
20:58On paper, Ireland is a neutral state far from the front. In reality, it is part of the same symbolic
21:07battlefield. Similar methods and even more brutal extend beyond Europe. In Africa, the Wagner network
21:16and its successors have become tools for cheap influence. In the Central African Republic, Mali and
21:23elsewhere, Russian-linked fighters guard palaces, train local forces and run mining concessions. For the
21:31Kremlin, each of these deals can be turned into a TVC. The point is not even the control over some
21:40mine.
21:41It is the demonstration that Russia can still shape events thousands of kilometers away.
21:47If you look at this map of options – Baltic, Moldova, Central Asia, hybrid warfare in Europe and Africa –
21:56none of it
21:57makes sense if you think like an economist. Pipelines are cheaper to rent than to blow up and rebuild.
22:05Gas can be sold without annexing anyone. The war in Ukraine has already cost Russia hundreds of
22:12thousands of lives and overstretched its budget. But dictators like Putin do not go to war for resources.
22:20They go to war for status and survival inside their own pyramid. Napoleon chased glory and reshaped Europe
22:29long after it was clear that every new campaign has created more enemies than victories. Hitler
22:36treated expansion and leaving space in the East as a test of his strength and a way out of domestic
22:44pressures. Several years before starting a big war he talked about it not as an if but a when. Both
22:53men
22:53led their countries into disasters they could not control because pulling back was more dangerous
23:00for them than pushing forward. Putin sits in that same trap. His regime has told elites for two decades that
23:09Russia always wins and the West always blinks first. If he accepts a visible defeat in Ukraine or anywhere
23:19else, the whole story cracks. That is why talking about his next move is not fear-mongering, it's basic
23:28math in a system he's built. This is not about rational interests or long-term benefit. It is about keeping
23:35a frightened elite convinced that their boss is still in charge. So, the main question is not
23:43will he dare. The real question is whether neighbors, allies and societies are ready to notice the early
23:51moves, take them seriously and close off the easy options before they turn into another showcase triumph.
23:59So, I want to ask you, which direction feels the most vulnerable to you? And why? Is it NATO's eastern
24:09flank? Moldova's fragile politics? Or the vast, often overlooked chessboard of Central Asia? Tell me in the
24:18comments your insights shape these investigations. If this kind of long-form, independent analysis helps you
24:28understand the world more clearly. Please like the video, subscribe to the channel and share it with
24:36someone who still believes authoritarian wars follow logic. And if you want to help keep this work free
24:45from sponsors and gatekeepers, you can support it through PayPal, SuperThings or Think Tank membership.
24:51All links are in the description. Thank you for watching. Stay alert, stay curious, and take nothing for granted.
25:04Stay alert, stay alert.
Comments