00:00The last ranked-versus-ranked game for us to get to
00:03is Tennessee against Kentucky.
00:09The Kentucky Wildcats, who are probably the trickiest team
00:14for really everyone to figure out other than David Behrman,
00:20who just bets them every week and wins every week.
00:22It's kind of pretty much the recipe and the formula.
00:27They're ranked sixth by the committee.
00:30Kentucky folks feel like they are under-ranked, which I appreciate.
00:36There are other people who think that Kentucky is over-ranked.
00:41And here is what cracks me up, just two resume metrics from ESPN, same provider.
00:52Kentucky's strength of record is second, sandwiched in between Miami and UCLA.
00:59Their FPI is 26th.
01:04So, still clearly not full buy-in that this Kentucky team is,
01:10forget the sixth team in the country,
01:12that this is not a top-10 team in college football.
01:17They are off a buy, as is Tennessee.
01:21A gotta-have-it game for the Vols, Dave.
01:24What do you look for here?
01:27When I play Kentucky, it's not necessarily because I think they're the best team in the country.
01:31It's not necessarily me thinking they're a top-10 team in the country.
01:33Although, based on resume alone, I had them sixth, and the committee put them sixth.
01:38It was really the only place we agreed outside Georgia and Miami.
01:40So, I think they're where they should be.
01:43Do I think they're the sixth-best team in the country?
01:45No.
01:45Why do I bet Kentucky?
01:46Because there's value on betting Kentucky.
01:48Because they're constantly getting a touchdown.
01:51And Tennessee, who has no offense, is laying a touchdown.
01:55Or six, or six and a half, wherever you got it.
01:57Every time I look at a Kentucky line, I see a team that consistently keeps games close.
02:02And it isn't pretty.
02:03They've won two games on two-point conversions in overtime.
02:07It's not pretty.
02:08But you're not giving me one.
02:10You're not giving me a field goal.
02:12You're giving me a touchdown.
02:13And I'm going to take a touchdown with a team that has a wonderful ground game behind C.J. Baxter
02:19and Jason Patterson, averaging 170 yards per game.
02:22They have a quarterback in Kenny Minchie who isn't going to show up on your Heisman list.
02:27He isn't going to show up on your top-10 draft list.
02:30All he's done is not throw the ball into the other team's hands.
02:34He's got 14 touchdowns and one interception.
02:38Kentucky, fourth in the nation in turnover margin, plus 13.
02:42There are certain things, Kevin, that I call intangibles that matter.
02:46Kentucky can run the ball.
02:48They're one of the least penalized teams in the conference.
02:51They don't turn it over.
02:52And when you have a team that can move the ball and doesn't turn it over, you tend to stay
02:58in these games.
02:59And, oh, by the way, they're 7-1 against the spread, 7-1.
03:03And the only game that they didn't cover or win was versus Bama, and they were ahead at halftime.
03:10And why did they lose that game?
03:11Because they turned the ball over in the second half and failed to move the ball.
03:15So this Kentucky team, again, not saying they're a top-10 team.
03:18What I'm saying is I'm getting a touchdown with them every week.
03:21A team that moves the ball, that can score and doesn't turn the ball over, is a team that I
03:28want to have a touchdown with.
03:29You look at Tennessee, Tennessee's only averaging 23 points per game against SEC teams.
03:34That's it.
03:3523 points per game in their 5-6 SEC game.
03:39So let's give them 23 points.
03:41Well, Kentucky's going to score at least 17.
03:43Therefore, I'm taking the point.
03:44I also like the under in this game because Kentucky's weakness on their defense is pass defense, not rush defense.
03:53They have a pretty good rush defense.
03:54Tennessee doesn't know how to pass the ball, Kevin.
03:56All they know how to do is run the ball.
03:58So if Kentucky has a good run defense and can stop Tennessee, I see this being a close game.
04:03I'm not saying Kentucky's going to win.
04:04I'm saying they're going to cover, which is what I do every week.
04:07They wind up winning the game.
04:08That just makes it even better.
