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The growing discontent with the Trump administration could turn into an electoral liability for Republicans. We joined Arnold August to go deeper in this topic.
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00:00And precisely to go deeper into this analysis, we have another special guest at this hour,
00:05Arnold August, international analyst. Hello, Arnold. Welcome, and thank you very much
00:09for joining us tonight. Thank you very much for having me once again.
00:15Arnold, we have been speaking here with Adrienne Pine about how these midterm elections could be
00:20a referendum on Donald Trump. What are your assessments on this matter?
00:25Gagrin is correct in what she is saying. And I would add, normally, when elections take place,
00:35whether it's on the midterm or presidential elections between the two major parties,
00:42my basic overall orientation has always been over the years that they are two sides of the same coin,
00:50and the main issue is opposition to the two-party system. However, I have to admit, this time around,
01:00it's different because, how should I say it in a diplomatic way, in addition to Donald Trump
01:06following a very right-wing policy, the general international public opinion is pretty much in
01:16agreement. He has a serious mental issue. In other words, it's not hidden anymore. He is mentally
01:26destabilized, dangerous. You never know what he's going to do, what is going to come out of his mouth
01:30today, what he's going to say tomorrow. So, in this case, in my view, exceptionally, I would say that
01:37the defeat of Donald Trump, and I'm looking at the CNN as the results are coming in now, up to
01:46a few
01:46minutes ago, it's looking like Donald Trump is facing a massive rejection by the electorate of the
01:55United States. And I think that peoples around the world, including, of course, in the United States,
02:00are heaving a sigh of relief that he will no longer able to control the political system thoroughly,
02:08as he has done over the last two and a half years.
02:13Also, regarding what you just mentioned, Donald Trump has once again raised questions regarding
02:18he is willing or not to accept the outcome of today's midterm elections. What does this say
02:25about what is about what it's at stake regarding the democratic institutions of the country, for
02:30example? Yeah, I think that is a major issue. And I believe this is one of the reasons he is
02:39in
02:40the process of losing this election. It's basically a referendum against Donald Trump. And one of the
02:46most obvious things for which people do not like what he has to say, irrespective of what
02:54happens. If he loses, it's a fraud. It's cheating. You know, a few years ago, you know, last time he
03:03was defeated by Joe Biden. And of course, now, even before the results are coming in, he has been
03:11indicating directly or indirecting, if he loses, it's because of fraud. So this is another reason I
03:18think, you know, according to the reports that I'm watching and CNN, is that the turnout has
03:24increased substantially this year compared to a couple of years ago. And I believe one of the
03:30reasons is that people are not willing to go along with what Donald Trump puts forward,
03:39what he will do if he loses the election. It looks pretty dangerous for many people. And I think people
03:45want to get rid of this uncertainty, this provocation in favor of violence and conflict that has been
03:52going on under Trump. And I think this is one of the reasons he is heading for a resounding defeat
03:58tonight. Also, Arnold, I want to bring in our guest here in studio, Adrienne Pine, who also wants to be
04:06part of our conversation and also has a question for you. Hi, Arnold. Among other things, you're known for
04:16your work on Cuba. I wanted to ask you a question about what you think these midterms might mean.
04:23If Democrats do take both houses, do you think that we'll possibly see a change in policy toward Cuba?
04:31I'll put it this way, Adrienne. I don't know how much a change will take place. But one thing for
04:39sure,
04:40I think we can all agree here, Alejandro, yourself and myself, that you could not have a more violent,
04:48obnoxious policy by the United States against Cuba, as is being carried out by Donald Trump. So it could only
04:57get better. And I think that will it be a major change? I don't know, because, you know, the basic
05:02outlook of the
05:04Democratic Party is Cuba is, you know, they keep on repeating it's a dictatorship and things have to
05:10change and all that. But you don't have the vociferous, violent provocation against Cuba that
05:17Donald Trump is putting forward. I mean, he goes so far as to say, I mean, how many times has
05:23he said
05:23that? You know, we won in Venezuela, we won in Iran, which, of course, is very far from the case.
05:30They
05:30actually lost in Iran. But he makes up these stories. On the way back from winning from Iran,
05:35Iran, our warships will just stop off next to Cuba, a few yards away from Cuba, and Cuba is next.
05:46I mean, you know, this itself, you can't get any worse than that, this military threats against the
05:53Cuban people. Why against the Cuban people? There's only one reason. Since 1959, Cuba has stood up
06:00for its sovereignty and independence. I don't know if you saw that, Adrian, and Alejandro, sir, you did.
06:06The United Nations General Assembly that took place about a week ago, and with Bruno Rodriguez,
06:13on behalf, the foreign minister, Cuban foreign minister, on behalf of the Cuban people,
06:19the Cuban government, said what many of us have been saying for decades, right to the face of the
06:26United States? You are lying. How many times did the United States lie in the United Nations or
06:33international forums or in Washington, D.C., in order to carry out a war against other peoples?
06:39So this is, you know, this, I think this is what the United States does not like about Cuba.
06:44This courageous stand of Bruno Rodriguez, amongst other things, standing up to the United States,
06:50right in the United Nations. It was great, because he forced, Bruno Rodriguez forced
06:57the UN ambassador to the United Nations to say, tell the truth. He said, hey, you can't talk to us
07:06that. We are in America. We're in the United States of America. That's false. The United Nations is not in
07:12America. The United Nations is an international body. But of course, the United States treats the
07:18United Nations as part of the United States, as an instrument of the United States. So this
07:23courageous stand by Bruno Rodriguez is symptomatic of the courageous stand taken by the Cuban people
07:32since 1959 in standing up for its sovereignty, as well as the sovereignty of other people. For example,
07:39sending troops to Angola to fight for freedom there against the apartheid regime. And, you know,
07:49Cuba is a, there's a lot of problems in Cuba, economic and other problems. But Cuba has a right
07:55to develop the social system as it feels best. And that is what they are doing now.
08:02Yes, Arnold, indeed. We witnessed as well the presentation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs
08:08of Cuba, Bruno Rodriguez, at the UN General Assembly. And in this sense, it is important as well to highlight,
08:14just to stay on topic, that it took place, this vote on the US economic blockade and siege on the
08:21island took place in the midst of a brutal diplomatic pressure imposed by Mike Walz and also by the US
08:29in
08:29general. And in this sense, taking into account the amount of pressure that was put on the UN member
08:35states, the fact that Cuba gained 130 votes in favor of the island, supporting the island that is facing as
08:44well the most brutal consequences of over 60 years of economic blockade. What does that mean regarding
08:51the symbolism, regarding as well the diplomatic victory that took place at the UN just a few days
08:57ahead of midterm elections? Well, I'm glad that you raised that. And at the United Nations, it is true
09:06that the number of countries that abstain regarding the Cuban resolution or voted against the Cuban
09:15resolution did increase compared to previous years. However, one has to take into account that the United
09:23States, the most powerful economic, political, and diplomatic power in the world, pressured countries
09:31all over the world, including Canada, to vote with the United States against Cuba. Some did follow. However,
09:39yet, the vast majority maintained a principled position and voted in favor of the Cuban resolution. So in my
09:48view, despite, you know, some of the countries changing their minds compared to previous years,
09:56it was a major diplomatic, diplomatic victory for Cuba, taking into account the unprecedented pressures
10:05that the United States carried on against other countries. I mean, my own Canada, you know,
10:10the United States put a lot of pressure on Canada to change its vote. And us in Canada,
10:16we played a very active role, members of parliament, UNGINs, of course, the solidarity organizations in
10:24Canada. We called on the Canadian government to not abandon its traditional role of voting against,
10:31in favor of the Cuban resolution. And Canada did, despite all the pressure, vote in favor of the Cuban
10:38resolution and against the United States.
10:43I'm glad you brought up the topic of Canada, because it is important to highlight as well that
10:48the U.S. is not unfolding such a diplomatic pressure on other nations, but also economic
10:53pressures. And that, in that sense, Canada has had a highlight in this aspect. We've seen
10:59Donald Trump referring to Canada as the 51 state and also imposing an enormous amount of tariffs on
11:08products that come from Canada. The neighbour, the allied. I mean, what does that mean precisely
11:15in this sense? And how as well tariffs is impacting today's election?
11:21Regarding Canada, it's not, it's not that well known. But in Canada, there's a very long lasting,
11:31deep, anti-American sentiment in Canada. It's not well known because, of course, they always refer to
11:39Carney, Prime Minister Carney, standing up to the United States. However, what Prime Minister Carney is
11:45doing is trying to co-opt the sentiment in Canada, the rising sentiment in Canada against the United
11:53States, thanks to Donald Trump. Donald Trump, by insisting Canada should be the 51st state,
11:59this provoked another wave of anti-Americanism in Canada, as we saw previously with the war in Iraq,
12:08and on other occasions in history. And now we're, you know, in a situation where we're in Canada. I
12:15mean, I just came back from China. And one of my topics is Canada-China relationship. Well, thanks to Donald
12:23Trump,
12:23and I wrote about, I spoke about it when I was in Beijing last week, the Canada-China economic
12:30relations are going very well. They have increased over the last year. Prime Minister Carney went to
12:38Beijing, and others went to Beijing as well. And the Canadian companies accompanied him, went to
12:47Beijing. And I think that this is, you know, one of the things that I raise as a joke when
12:55I was there
12:55in Beijing, is that there, you know, as you said, Trump imposed sanctions against Canadian products,
13:06and they were lifted to a certain extent, because Trump had no choice. But with regards to China,
13:15China and Canada have developed the following new chapter, new policy that dates back to Pierre
13:25Trudeau, the architect of positive Canada-China relations, unlike his son, Justin Trudeau, which
13:33completely sabotaged good China-Canada relations for over 10 years, and was salvaged by Prime Minister
13:42Carney. And what has happened is that, for example, now they reached an agreement between Canada and
13:49China with regards to relaxed tariffs. However, the relaxed tariffs, for example, on soya products
13:59based in Saskatchewan, in the Prairie provinces, going to China, these relaxed tariffs to export
14:09soya to China, this agreement comes to the end in December 2026, in a couple of months.
14:16So we have the Prime Minister of Saskatchewan, in the Prairies, mentioning a few days ago that there's
14:25a problem, that these tariffs, preferential tariffs, are coming to its end at the end of December 2026,
14:36and he is worried. Now, it is interesting to note that this Prime Minister of Saskatchewan
14:43did not attack or criticize China with regards to these preferential tariffs coming to the end of
14:50December 2026. Guess who he attacked? He attacked the Canadian government, because the Canadian government
14:59is responsible for the port of Vancouver, just north of the port of Seattle, the port of Vancouver,
15:07which is the main basis for exporting Canadian goods such as soya to China. And they are concerned
15:15that this infrastructure, this is the words of the Saskatchewan Prime Minister, not me or a leftist,
15:22he said the problem is that the Canadian port is not capable of handling these exports to China. So
15:32hello, China, in addition to welcoming the exports of Canadian goods to China, perhaps Canada could learn
15:41from China with regard to the infrastructure. I said I was just there. The modernization taking place in
15:48China today is fantastic. And Canada should also learn how to build its infrastructure, for example,
15:56the port of Vancouver, in order to continue the exports of Canadian products to China.
16:04Also, Arnold, I would like to bring into our conversation our guest here in studio,
16:10Adrian Pine, who also wants to be part as well of a conversation.
16:16So, Arnold, you were just describing how Canada, in response to the dramatic Trump tariffs, has been
16:25diversifying. It's been strengthening its relationships with other countries. And of course, this is something
16:30that we've seen a number of countries do in response to the Trump tariffs. Mexico is one example.
16:37This, of course, weakens the United States position internationally. And my question in relation to
16:46the US election, you know, Democrats and Republicans, one thing they agree on is imperialism in general.
16:54Do you think that if Democrats take both houses, that they will be able to shore up the US
17:00US's position vis-a-vis the damage that tariffs have done to its relations with other countries around
17:09the world? Or do you think that that ship has sailed? Well, I think, you know, you may know my
17:17political
17:17views that basically, there's no fundamental difference in terms of world outlook, in terms
17:24of imperialism between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. You know, the rhetoric is different,
17:32obviously, between Trump on the one hand, and many of the Democratic leading spokespeople on the other
17:40hand. However, the overall outlook, as we've seen over decades, Adrian, as you know, both countries
17:47follow the overall line of US imperialism. US is the greatest country in the world. We have to bring
17:53democracy to the countries in the world. Like one of the ways I measure Democrats is how they react
18:01when someone like John McCain dies. It was very interesting when John McCain passed away, God bless
18:09him, right? The Barack Obama and AOC, they all praised John McCain as a great patriot, as an inspiration to
18:20them. So I think this is just one example, amongst many others, that shows when push, push, a chef comes
18:28to push, I'm sorry, chef comes to push, both parties are imperialist parties. I mean, you know, the blockade
18:34against Cuba, which you mentioned, who started? It was the Democrats. You know, John F. Kennedy, who initiated
18:40the blockade against Cuba. And while Barack Obama made a very positive opening with regards to Cuba,
18:51this was reversed by Donald Trump. Now, some people were saying, oh, why does Donald Trump follow the
18:58example of Barack Obama? Well, why should he? Even Barack Obama did not say one word. During Trump's
19:07first term, when he imposed those dozens of draconian measures against Cuba, Obama did not say a word.
19:15So I think his basic overall opening towards Cuba in his first term was basically window dressing.
19:23As he said himself, and I quote this in one of my books, he said when he was in Cuba
19:30or preparing
19:31the trip to Cuba, he said the problem with Cuba is that our policy did not work. We are losing
19:39ground
19:40in Latin America. So he said, his conclusion, we have to change our tactics, replacing open aggression
19:47with seduction. And that is what Obama did when he went to Havana in 2016. I was in Havana at
19:55the time,
19:55covering the visit with Telesur, Espanol, Spanish in Telesur. And that's what it was. It was an aggressive
20:04cultural assault against Cuba. And when he was there, Barack Obama did not shy away from saying,
20:12you know, we have to have good relation with Cuba, but Cuba has to change. Cuba has to adopt the
20:19capitalist
20:19system. So he went there with a message of seduction rather than aggression. And unfortunately,
20:26I have to say it did work to a certain extent, because as a result, some people in Cuba were
20:34actually bought into that narrative and had for a long time and still have a positive view of United States
20:43through the intervention of Barack Obama. But of course, this all came to an end with the aggressive policy of
20:50Trump.
20:52Thank you, Arnold, very much for your key information, your analysis at this hour. You have brought about
20:58many important issues that are going to be as well, being the center of today's analysis and everything that is
21:06going to be
21:06impacting today's outcome. So thank you very much for joining us. Thank you very much for having me.