Record Warmth Puts 2026 on Course to Match 2024's Record

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Carbon Brief's latest climate analysis gives 2026 a 67% chance of beating 2024 as the warmest year on record, estimating about 1.52C above pre-industrial levels. Dr Zeke Hausfather's analysis says August 2026 was the warmest August in all six major datasets. A record-setting El Niño is expected to have its biggest effect next year, giving 2027 a 96% chance of being the warmest year on record. Temperature groups announce official 2026 results in January, and datasets may disagree; the analysis explains the odds and El Niño link. Disclosure: This video contains stock footage and content created or enhanced using AI-assisted tools.

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00:00This year is on track to tie 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.

00:04And next year looks likely to be even hotter.

00:07Climate publication Carbon Brief averages six major temperature records

00:11and gives 2026 a 67% chance of a new high.

00:15August was the warmest August on record in all six.

00:18Western Europe had its hottest summer on record, and so did the contiguous U.S.

00:23A big driver is El Nino, a Pacific pattern that releases ocean heat into the air.

00:28This one broke a key Pacific record in September and is expected to keep strengthening.

00:33Nearly all forecast models make it the strongest El Nino on record.

00:37But global temperatures lag the Pacific by about three months.

00:40So the biggest effect should land in 2027.

00:43Carbon Brief gives 2027 a 96% chance of becoming the warmest year on record.

00:49Temperature groups announced their 2026 results in January, and they may not agree.

00:54Disclosure. This video contains stock footage and content created or enhanced using AI-assisted tools.

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