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One year into ASEAN membership, how is Timor-Leste finding its place in the region? #AWANIGlobal explores its journey so far, emerging opportunities and what lies ahead.
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00:07This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda, and this week marks the first anniversary of Timor-Leste's formal accession
00:14to ASEAN as its 11th member state.
00:17And the country's president recently remarks that the country has seen economic progress over the past year, with major investments
00:25flowing into the country perhaps since joining ASEAN.
00:28And while this membership offers the country a platform to contribute to shaping the regional and global political future and
00:36environment, as well as expanding access to markets and foreign investment, questions now arise as to whether this could also
00:43potentially expose domestic vulnerabilities to an even broader set of challenges.
00:49Joining me to unpack some of these questions is Guteriano Neves, Independent Policy Analyst based in Delhi, and Dr. Ku
00:58Ying Hui, Associate Professor at the Department of International and Strategic Studies, University of Malaya.
01:03Thank you so much, Guteriano and Dr. Ku for joining us.
01:07I believe you both are friends.
01:09Dr. Ku, you've been following, of course, the development of this accession to ASEAN, a long-awaited accession as we
01:18all know.
01:19But we want to first address some of the comments made by the president looking at the economic progress.
01:26I believe, Guteriano, this is where we'd like some of your insights, looking at economic progress, major investments joining ASEAN.
01:35But apart from that, what do you think has changed for the country in this past year, if any, Guteriano?
01:43Economically speaking, I think it would be unrealistic to expect a significant change in terms of real economic growth or
01:53economic transformation or structural change in the economy,
01:57given the time horizon that we are talking is only one year.
02:02But overall, I would say that the trend has the mood or the general mood is quite significant since joining
02:13ASEAN.
02:14ASEAN has become one of the, if I may say, the hot topics in Timor-Leste.
02:23And we hear a lot about ASEAN accession in the public narrative in Timor-Leste right now, especially in the
02:32government's discussion.
02:33So it gives us a kind of pressure for the government to reform, to change the way it thinks in
02:41terms of designing its policy.
02:43So it's not looking only inward, but also looking outward beyond Timor-Leste's geographic jurisdiction.
02:50So in that sense, it's a positive note in that space.
02:55There are a lot of the discussion.
02:57Right now, just last week, the government already, the Council of Ministers already approved the roadmap for accession, which is
03:07a positive note.
03:07And it is expecting that it will drive some of the institutional change, especially in the economic realm.
03:15Overall, the economic situation in Timor-Leste, it continues with the growth trend, positive growth trend.
03:25Right now, according to some of the projections, the growth rate would be around 4.1 to 4.5 percent
03:38for 2026.
03:41Last year, the growth rate is quite positive, 4.3 percent.
03:46And then we also see the growth in terms of coffee export.
03:51Last year, it's a double.
03:54And also private rates, I think more than 10 percent of the growth in the private sector investment.
04:01So private consumption is growing up, and there is a quite positive note in this country.
04:09Although the structure of the economic is highly dependent on the public spending, but we also see some positive observations,
04:22some positive dynamics from the private sector.
04:25And private sector employment is also growing up in last year, and it is expected to continue with in 2026.
04:36A positive outlook and a lot of interesting points there.
04:40And I think one of the things you mentioned there, maybe not realistic to see that much economic progress within
04:47this short time period of one year.
04:49But you pointed out the important element of this positive mood that it brings, right?
04:55Maybe Dr. Ying Hu, you'd like to comment on this as well.
04:58You have previously described Timor-Leste as arguably the most idealistic country or member state now in ASEAN.
05:07How do you think this might reflect, this accession into ASEAN?
05:12And perhaps this has also vice versa contributed to or injected a much more positive, perhaps, outlook or mood into
05:22the region as well?
05:24Yeah, well, definitely.
05:26I mean, as Guteh mentions on the economic front, there has been quite a bit of developments inside the Timor
05:33-Leste itself.
05:34And I certainly hope that, you know, when we look at the issues of Timor-Leste's admission to ASEAN, it
05:41should go both ways.
05:42And I think it is also very important that ASEAN memberships, I think, definitely can help, especially opening up the
05:50regional markets for Timor-Leste.
05:52But I think at the same time, we should be a bit more cautious that it cannot, however, substitute for
06:01building the capacities of the domestic economy.
06:05So I think this too has to go hand in hand as well.
06:08And I think also on the other dimensions, assess to the larger market matters only if the Timor-Leste businesses
06:17can actually produce competitively to meet the standards and get their products out to the customers.
06:24Because if we look at the statistics of the exports and imports, I think Timor-Leste is still quite reliant
06:32on goods and services that are being imported inside Timor-Leste itself.
06:38And hopefully, yes, one year is too short for us to see the immediate outcomes.
06:43But hopefully, I think, go hand in hand, the government of Timor-Leste, at the same time, the ASEAN, to
06:50realise that, you know, making these two works.
06:53Because I think if we cast out the region, not just talking about the Timor-Leste, the unevenness of the
07:00economic situation is still quite glaring in the regions and it doesn't stop yet.
07:05So the inclusions of Timor-Leste should really send a signal to the ASEAN that there should be more to
07:11be done.
07:13On this note, talking about this uneven economic growth and looking inward and outward, something Guteriano mentioned earlier,
07:22what do you think, Guteriano, are some of the more immediate economic priorities Timor-Leste should be looking at right
07:29now?
07:29Should it be already looking towards deeper economic integration within the region or should it focus on the inward, focus
07:38on domestic capacity at this point, Guteriano?
07:41What do you think?
07:43Thanks for the question.
07:45Timor-Leste, even before joining us here, it's already a highly integrated economy to the regional and international market.
07:53Timor-Leste, even before joining us here, our economy is very open, one of the lowest tariff rates in the
07:58world.
08:00In terms of import to GDP, trade to GDP, quite a significant model, around 60 to 70 percent of trade
08:10to GDP.
08:11So it's quite significant.
08:12Most of our domestic products are, most of the consumer goods are imported.
08:20So it's a kind of, it has two sides of effect.
08:29In one side, it satisfies the growing domestic demand for the consumer goods and services.
08:36But on the other side, it also exposes high vulnerability for Timor-Leste's economy.
08:43So they discuss it now, as Dr. Liu illustrates, things more about how building the domestic production capacity.
08:53One is to substitute some of the imported goods and services, and not necessarily for highly manufacturing products, but for
09:07the, especially for the food.
09:09For example, Timor-Leste imported more than 100 million every year for the food consumption, and it's something that can
09:18easily be domestically produced.
09:23That's one way, but also at the same time, we also, with the accession to ASEAN, we also, um, expected
09:30that it will, uh, expand the market access, uh, market access,
09:34particularly for the, some of the, uh, goods products that can have access to the market, but more importantly for
09:41the, uh, export services,
09:43particularly attracting some of the tourists from the ASEAN, ASEAN countries to visit, uh, Timor-Leste.
09:49And I think realistically, I think these are something that's realistic to, to, to, to hope for.
09:55And at the same time, uh, improving the, uh, business enabling, uh, environment for Timor-Leste,
10:01so that Timor-Leste can attract some of the investment investors from Timor, uh, from ASEAN countries,
10:07and so that it can partner with the, uh, domestic, uh, private sector,
10:11and that would enable the domestic private sector to enable and to build up its capacity, uh, and also to
10:18have, uh,
10:19to, to be able to access to, uh, new technology, knowledge, and, uh, access to market beyond, uh, Timor-Leste.
10:26Uh, but, I mean, overall, building a domestic local production capacity is critical,
10:33and also improving, um, uh, rules and regulations, uh, inside the country, so it gives a sense of confidence for
10:41the private sector,
10:42uh, uh, not only from offices, but also private sector in the country, and building the human capital is critical,
10:50uh, for, for, for this country.
10:51I think these are the three issues that we have been regularly, uh, uh, discussed around the country.
10:58So, on one hand, there's the question of, uh, economic growth, development, capacity,
11:04but on the other side, it's also important and interesting, uh, to look at the question of diplomacy, um, and
11:10political integration.
11:11Um, Dr. Ying Hui, how might you see Timor-Leste upholding its commitment to principles like democracy and human rights,
11:18while navigating some of the, uh, broader political or geopolitical dynamics like, uh, ASEAN's non-interference policy,
11:27for instance, or even, uh, uh, on a, on a much bigger scale, global power rivalry, such as between the
11:33U.S. and China?
11:34Yeah, I think, uh, this is one of the, uh, most interesting dimensions, in my view, you know,
11:39when it comes to the Timor-Leste, uh, accessions from the, uh, political lens, because there's always a focus on
11:45economic integration,
11:47uh, and more so, I think, when we look at Timor-Leste's, uh, experience, uh, they, uh, bring in, uh,
11:54the, uh, to, to remind us that, uh,
11:57really, their history, their sovereignty is not simply about what we see protecting the states from the external, um, interference,
12:04uh,
12:05and that history itself, I think, creates an interesting tension with ASEAN's, uh, longstanding of talking about non-interference and
12:14consensus,
12:14and, of course, uh, at the same time, I think we should not also, uh, uh, romanticize, uh, romanticize too
12:22much of the Timor-Leste's democratic experience,
12:24because, like other young democracies, uh, they also face, uh, the, uh, governance and, uh, institutional challenges,
12:32I think, not only from the economic side, but also the domestic, uh, governance as well,
12:37but I think, uh, what it can bring in is that the question is really, uh, what happens when, uh,
12:44that perspective itself,
12:45that they are upholding the human rights and democracies, encounter the reality of what we see today.
12:50I think one of the clear examples that we can see is, uh, Myanmar, because, uh, Timor-Leste has demonstrated,
12:58uh, somehow a willingness
12:59to actually engage with Myanmar's, um, national unity governments even way before, and, uh, of course,
13:07even during the admission itself, uh, they have had, you know, in two episodes before and after the admission,
13:14they have had their, uh, uh, envoy being, uh, expelled itself, uh, itself because of the statements and
13:20things, and I think that, yes, has generated the diplomatic tensions with the Myanmar's, uh, military
13:26authorities that we see, but I think now that Timor-Leste is a full member, uh, the, what's very interesting
13:34is that they have not come out with a strong statement, but how they actually want to navigate
13:40the expectations of the regional consensus and the collective diplomacies, and I think this will be
13:46something that they have to, uh, really, uh, manage whether they can actually maintain its, uh, principal
13:52positions while working constructively within the ASEAN, because if we look at ASEAN, there are cases
13:59where one or two individual ASEAN member states can have different opinions from the rest as well,
14:05based on the different issues, such as South China Sea, so I certainly hope this is something that
14:11the Timor-Leste's government can actually look into it, and moving to your questions about the major
14:16powers, uh, rivalries with the competing major powers, I think as a very small state in the region,
14:23I think that agency itself is also limited, but what I can observe now is Timor-Leste is trying to
14:30refrain themselves from, um, framing it, you know, being, uh, in between of the U.S.-China rivalry,
14:36rather they are diversifying their relationship, uh, with all of the power that is quite similar with,
14:43uh, how the other ASEAN member states are actually doing, so I can see a little bit, um, consistency of
14:50that, of how ASEAN member states are behaving similarly with Timor-Leste for now.
14:55Uh, thank you. Now, I want to go back to, uh, Guteriano and some of the comments you made earlier
15:01about, uh, the kind of economic policies or reforms that you think should be prioritized,
15:07but that's in terms of looking inward, some of the more domestic capacity that Timor-Leste should be
15:12considering, but, um, looking outward, or perhaps for ASEAN to look to, uh, Timor-Leste, uh, Guteriano,
15:19what do you think are some of the, uh, forms of support that ASEAN can provide Timor-Leste at this
15:25point in time? Well, um, there has been, this is, uh, there has been, uh, ASEAN is not, and ASEAN
15:32is,
15:32ASEAN and other, uh, ASEAN members are not the new players in Timor-Leste in terms of, uh,
15:38development, uh, in Timor-Leste. Um, Indonesia has always been the biggest trading partners for,
15:47for Timor-Leste, but, uh, in terms of, uh, we consume more of, uh, imported goods and services
15:53from Indonesia, uh, Singapore, Thailand, and all. Malaysia is, uh, coming up with the very, uh, um,
16:01offering a new dynamic, and, uh, Vietnam, uh, they, uh, these countries have, are the consistently,
16:10uh, biggest trading partners for Timor-Leste, uh, given its, uh, geographic, uh, proximity. Um,
16:19and, um, like, Singapore has been playing important type of human, um, capital development,
16:25and also capacity building in the public sector, uh, uh, itself. So, and it's, uh,
16:31it's, uh, it's, uh, uh, uh, what its role in, in, in the, in the development of Timor-Leste, uh,
16:41through various ways that we have, we have, uh, received, um, since joining ASEAN, one of the,
16:47um, positive note we observe is that there's been a lot of, um, high-level visitors, uh, from, uh,
16:53ASEAN countries, including, um, foreign minister from Singapore and, uh, foreign, um, and prime minister of
17:00Singapore visited Timor-Leste. Recently, uh, prime minister of Timor-Leste visited, uh, Thailand,
17:06and, uh, signed several, uh, cooperation, uh, including, um, um, transport, uh, air transport,
17:13and, uh, we are hoping to get direct flight from, um, Bangkok to, uh, to Delhi. Uh, we, uh, so,
17:21uh,
17:21there are a lot of venues or areas where, um, uh, where ASEAN countries can help Timor-Leste,
17:28including opening up the, uh, the, uh, the market and also facilitating the, uh, system market. And I
17:52think that there's a lot of people that are in the public sector, uh, um, in the private sector.
17:57And, uh, Singapore has been, uh, a critical, um, player in, uh, in this area because
18:03Singapore, I mean, Timor-Leste always looks up to, uh, ASEAN countries, including Singapore in
18:10terms of its human capital, uh, development. Uh, so, um, but, uh, I mean, this is,
18:16uh, it's just a matter of how to, to maximize the, uh, the opportunity and the integration,
18:23the, the accession that, uh, we, we already into. Um, um, now looking ahead, Dr. Ying Hui,
18:29how would you imagine, or what would you, what do you think a meaningful success would look like,
18:35um, for both Timor-Leste and ASEAN, perhaps over the next three or five years? I know we're also, uh,
18:40looking forward to Timor-Leste's, uh, uh, assuming, uh, the ASEAN chairmanship in
18:452029, a lot to look forward to, of course, but, um, I think we mentioned about how, uh,
18:52the sort of economic and political integration and benefits might, uh, go both ways to benefit
18:58both Timor-Leste and ASEAN, opening new markets, opening new opportunities, uh, but what would
19:03success look like for both parties, uh, in a more meaningful sense, Dr. Ying Hui?
19:09Yeah, I think for the start, I would like to say that I think in another five years,
19:122021, we should be looking beyond whether Timor-Leste has actually successfully, uh,
19:20fulfilled, uh, sessions, uh, commitments or participated in ASEAN meetings. I think
19:24it is not about the participations, uh, alone or able to organize or host all the meetings,
19:31but in a more meaningful way, I think there are several dimensions that I would like to look at.
19:36First, I think economically, uh, I think it would be, it will be very important to see the evidence
19:42that the ASEAN membership has contributed to a more diversified and productive economy in Timor-Leste,
19:49because economic diversification is a topic that, you know, in, in Timor-Leste, they have been talking
19:55about how do they actually diversify. And I think ASEAN could, uh, hopefully help, uh, in terms of that,
20:00because, uh, I think, uh, regional integration, uh, that we talk about should help create the
20:06opportunities beyond that dependence, because I think the one that we want to avoid is, uh,
20:13talking about diversity, diversification, that it cannot simply mean attracting more foreign
20:19investment into the country, into the Timor-Leste, but whether those investment can actually generate
20:25employment, strengthen local businesses, support the domestic production, and create
20:30opportunities for the young people is very important. That's the first thing. And the second
20:35thing I think institutionally, uh, would mean that, you know, Timor-Leste will be able to develop the
20:40administrative and technical capacity, because for now, there's still a lot of assistance, uh, coming,
20:47going in to talk about capacity buildings and things, but I don't think that should be something
20:52that we keep relying on, because that will create dependency, as I earlier mentioned. And the third one,
20:59I think, uh, more, most importantly, in my view, uh, moving beyond talking about economic business and
21:05politics, we should be really asking, uh, whether the ordinary Timor-Leste, because this is a question
21:11also not just Timor-Leste, but continue to be a challenge within the ASEAN itself, is how do we
21:18benefit the young people, the women and rural communities, and create more, uh, greater opportunity
21:25through the regional economic participation, education, employment, uh, mobilities, and, uh,
21:31moving towards, uh, inside the country itself, inside Timor-Leste itself. And, uh, my last point about the
21:39very much anticipated ASEAN chairmanship in 20, um, 29, it will be certainly, uh, a very meaningful and, uh,
21:47important milestones. And, uh, Timor-Leste, uh, very early, they have already established the council to
21:52actually have regular meetings to look at that. But whether it's going to happen or not, that is
21:58another, uh, question because there's a lot of challenges, uh, to be overcome. But I think what
22:04ultimately I will measure the success, uh, into just two, uh, points, how much the Timor-Leste has
22:11benefited from joining the ASEAN and how much at the same time ASEAN has evolved through the Timor-Leste's
22:19participation at the same time. Uh, thank you. We have just about two minutes left. So if you can
22:25keep this brief, uh, Guteriano, uh, your thoughts on this, what do you hope to see, um, when we see
22:31greater integration going both ways between Timor-Leste and ASEAN, uh, over the next few years,
22:37what would success look like to you? Uh, that's, um, I mean, I would, uh, I cannot disagree more with,
22:44uh,
22:44what doctors will say is that we would like to see economic, given that my background is, uh, more
22:49heavily on the economic, I would like to see that this integration will facilitate one is the economic,
22:55uh, the institutional reform at the domestic level. And that would lead to, uh, economic
23:00diversification or a structural change in our economy, uh, from, uh, accounting that's highly
23:06dependent on the, uh, public spending that is financed through, uh, through, uh, petroleum funds
23:12toward a more diverse and more sustainable and more, more inclusive, uh, economy that, um,
23:19is the, uh, that, uh, our economy, the growth rate can benefit, can, uh, drive more employment,
23:27more, uh, income generation for the, uh, rural household, um, and, uh, improvement in the overall
23:33the wellbeing of, uh, Timor-Leste. And that is what, um, ordinary Timor-Leste are expecting, uh, at this point.
23:41So, in our view, from the development point of view, ASEAN accession is more of a means
23:46toward a better, uh, development outcomes and not the end in, uh, in itself.
23:52Thank you so much for sharing. The opportunities are, of course, significant, but so are the
23:57challenges, as you both pointed out, uh, from strengthening, uh, domestic economy to institutions
24:02to navigating, uh, an increasingly complex regional and global landscape. And as, uh, we look ahead to, uh,
24:10uh, Timor-Leste's ASEAN chairmanship in 2029. The question is, of course, how this can translate
24:15the promise of, uh, membership into much more tangible benefits for the, uh, average Timorese,
24:21as you pointed out, uh, and also contributing meaningfully to the future of the region. Thank you,
24:25once again to our guests today, uh, Guteriano Neves, independent policy analyst based in Dili,
24:30and Dr. Ku Ying Hui from University Malaya, sharing your thoughts, um, as Timor-Leste marks one year
24:36since joining, uh, formally, uh, as ASEAN's 11th member state. And, of course, uh, plenty more to look
24:43forward to in the future as we look towards greater economic and political integration. Thank you,
24:47once again, uh, to our guests and to our audience for tuning in. This is Awani Global with me, Nailah
24:51Hudah.
24:52We'll catch you next time.