00:00John Healy will deliver his first budget as Chancellor and the first of Andy Burnham's
00:03government on October 28th. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has promised to ease cost of living for
00:08millions of households, but his Chancellor has some big challenges and little wriggle room to
00:12make sweeping changes or significant tax cuts. National debt has topped £3 trillion, the headline
00:17rate of inflation has hit 3.5%, borrowing is running ahead of forecasts as spending increases.
00:23The Prime Minister has said he wants to give households breathing space, but it's against
00:26a pretty gloomy economic backdrop that the Chancellor has to deliver it. So what can we expect from
00:31John Healy's first budget? We are not anticipating an increase in the rates of income tax, BAT or
00:36national insurance. Andy Burnham has committed to honouring Labour's 2024 manifesto pledges,
00:41which includes not raising these for the rest of this Parliament. But these are the major revenue
00:46raisers for the Treasury, accounting for nearly 60% of tax receipts and not increasing them limits
00:51where John Healy can spend money elsewhere. The Chancellor has also reportedly rejected calls
00:55from some Labour MPs to hike capital gains tax. Cost of living measures already confirmed
01:00include removing VAT from household electricity bills from this month and a £2 cap on bus
01:06fares outside London. On energy payments, the Prime Minister this week said the Chancellor
01:10was investigating removing standing charges from gas bills. This would save households about
01:14£108 a year. The warm homes discount, which takes £150 off winter energy bills, is also
01:20likely to double to £300 for people on benefits. So whose bills will be going up? Drivers could face hikes.
01:25The Chancellor is said to be mulling a new tax on family SUVs, which could add £1,000 to the
01:30cost
01:30of larger vehicles. Fuel duty is already set to rise on January 1st. It seems unlikely that the
01:34government will raise it further and the Chancellor may even extend the current freeze due to the
01:38ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In her last budget, Healy's predecessor, Rachel Reeves,
01:43announced a mansion tax for properties worth over £2 million. There had been speculation that Healy
01:47might bring this threshold down to properties worth over £1.5 million. But London MPs have said they are now
01:52quietly confident this won't happen following their lobbying. What we do know is council tax
01:56for millions of Londoners will be significantly hiked in April. Those living in Wandsworth,
02:01Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster, the City of London and Hammersmith and Fulham face at least
02:05100% hikes in their bills in April after government cuts announced in a previous budget. Healy is not
02:11expected to change these plans despite threats of legal action from councils affected. We know Andy
02:16Burnham is a big fan of devolution. Business Chiefs have called for the Chancellor to give Sadiq Khan
02:20new financial powers to unshackle key transport projects in the capital including the Bakerloo
02:25Line extension and the Docklands Light Railway extension and the West London Orbital.
