00:00Dan, we want to talk about first how things really deteriorate through the day tomorrow.
00:05Yeah, and we'll see on the loop of the future radar here, you see East IES coming in from the
00:09south.
00:10Tomorrow starts off with squally weather in parts of the Gulf Coast.
00:13The winds will pick up throughout the day, so the preparations need to be rushed to completion here Thursday.
00:18Not really enough time on Friday morning because the weather will go downhill significantly come afternoon
00:22and then really into the evening as East IES makes its final approach to the coast as we head into
00:28tomorrow night.
00:28All right. We'll continue to see it working its way inland as we go through the weekend.
00:33And like we were talking about earlier, Dan, where you are very much determines what impacts you see.
00:39Yeah, the wind is going to be something obviously we're most concerned about near the point of landfall.
00:44We've got that dark shade of purple near that western part of the Florida panhandle into southern Alabama.
00:49But importantly, look how far inland the 60-mile-an-hour wind gusts go all the way up close to
00:53the Birmingham area
00:54as the wind field of East IES starts to expand.
00:57And that will lead to what we expect to be power outages in a lot of this area that could
01:02be long-lasting.
01:03So certainly going to be significant damaging winds near the point of landfall and then expanding inland.
01:08The other risk here is clearly the tornadoes, Anna.
01:10And Dan, our forecasting team, you along with them, just made some changes to this graphic
01:16that we haven't quite got into the system yet.
01:18So talk us through what's changed with this forecast since this morning.
01:22Yeah, we're always seeing how we can make adjustments and fine-tune these forecasts.
01:25And we've taken our Friday afternoon to Saturday night risk.
01:28And we've trimmed a little bit of the western side of this.
01:31Not a huge change, but cut back a bit of the risk near the Birmingham-Chattanooga-Mobile line here.
01:35I think most of the tornado risk on Friday afternoon and evening is near the Gulf Coast.
01:40It expands Friday night and into Saturday, Saturday night farther east.
01:44There could be tornadoes well away from the center of circulation all the way near the Atlantic coast here on
01:51Saturday.
01:51So plenty of impacts even well away from where east AES makes landfall.
01:55And it's worth pointing out, Dan, this is just where the greatest tornado risk exists.
01:59We were talking about we could see an isolated tornado or two even as far south as Orlando.
02:04We could.
02:05We're going to have to watch all the way down the floor to panhandle.
02:07There's a history of many tropical systems bringing a few tornadoes well away from where the center moves onshore.
02:14And really anywhere you get these feeder bands and they can rotate pretty quickly and spin up a tornado very
02:18rapidly as well.
02:19So we're going to be watching this whole zone here over the next 48 hours.
02:22And between that and the wind, you already mentioned the power outages, but let's dive into who sees the worst
02:27of it
02:27and who sees, you know, maybe a neighborhood or two has lost power.
02:31Yeah, anywhere near landfall could be days if not a week or more of power outages.
02:34Anywhere expanding inland in the lighter shade of yellow, we could see spotty power outages all the way up into
02:39the central Appalachians
02:40where there could be wind gusts of 40 to 50 miles per hour, especially on sort of along the spine
02:44of the Appalachian
02:45and on the west side of the mountains there, too, as east AES makes its way up here on Saturday
02:50night into Sunday.
02:50That would be the time of impact for those regions.
02:52So very much going to be a situation where landfall is just the beginning of this storm,
02:57but where the most dangerous conditions are going to appear.
03:01Yeah, the storm surge obviously at landfall is one of the most important hazards.
03:05It's unfortunately one of the most deadly hazards from tropical systems.
03:08We have that 6 to 10 foot area of surge that we're concerned about, especially the western Florida panhandle.
03:14Mobile Bay, we're going to have to keep a close eye on if the storm makes landfall east of Mobile
03:18Bay,
03:18like as we currently expect.
03:20Most of the wind should be out of the north, which should allow actually the bay to be less of
03:25a risk
03:26with the water actually moving out of the bay.
03:27We're going to watch it very closely because any shift to the west would put Mobile Bay
03:31at a greater risk of dangerous storm surge.
03:35All right, so rain is going to be the most widespread impact, really.
03:40Yeah, a huge area of large population is going to be experiencing some rain, at least from the storm,
03:46including the western North Carolina mountains.
03:47It can pick up several inches in that mountainous terrain.
03:50That can lead to flooding and mudslides, obviously near the point of landfall,
03:52where we expect it could be over a foot of rain, which can lead to significant flash flooding in some
03:57spots.
03:57And, of course, that's in addition to the coastal flooding from the storm surge that we talked about there.
04:02So about 10 seconds left.
04:04We'll just quickly, anybody highlighted on this map could see impacts.
04:08Dan DePodwyn, Akuma, the Vice President of Forecast Operations.
04:10Yeah, a real impact scale of two has a significant landfalling hurricane,
04:12going to be a very long next couple days for the parts of the Gulf Coast.
04:15We'll see you all.
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