00:01Quebec has put independence back on the political agenda.
00:10Canada's long-running unity debate is back.
00:14The separatist Parti Québécois of Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon
00:18has won the provincial election in Quebec
00:22and returns to power for the first time in more than a decade.
00:30We simply want to exist as a nation and make our own decisions,
00:34just like the 200 other countries around the world.
00:38But if the incoming separatist leader Saint-Pierre Plamondon
00:42wants to deliver on his promise of holding another referendum on Quebec sovereignty,
00:48he'll need support from other parties.
00:50The Parti Québécois fell short of a majority
00:53and it would need the third vote on independence in the province of 9 million people.
01:01Now, the result reopens one of Canada's most sensitive political debates,
01:06the unity of the country,
01:08and gives Prime Minister Mark Carney a separatist government in Quebec,
01:12just as he is trying to keep the country united in the face of external and internal pressures.
01:21All right, let's speak now to Boris Vormann.
01:24He is a professor of politics from Bard College here in Berlin.
01:29Great to have you on DW News today.
01:31So, does this result signal a genuine revival of Quebec's sovereignty movement,
01:37or was this more a vote against the previous government than a vote for independence?
01:46I mean, it does come as a little bit of a surprise,
01:4912 years after the last time the Parti Québécois was actually voted first.
01:54But it comes as a surprise because it's a particular moment where there are geopolitical tensions,
02:00where Canada is under threat externally.
02:03So, you would assume from a political science perspective also that this brings people together.
02:08And here we are at the Parti Québécois won the election.
02:12On the other hand, I think what we're seeing is mostly, as you said,
02:16a rejection of the former incumbent of Avenir Québec, which didn't capture any new seats.
02:22We have the Quebec Liberal Party that soared and captured 40 seats.
02:27So, we have a new balance of power.
02:30But it's also very clear that the Québécois don't seem to be very keen on independence,
02:36even though they vote for the Parti Québécois.
02:38So, if you look at polls, it's relatively clear.
02:42All right. That's interesting, though, what you're saying there,
02:45because Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, Parti Québécois' leader,
02:51has essentially a promise of holding a referendum.
02:56But how difficult then is that going to be, seeing as though as well that his party fell short of
03:01a majority?
03:03Yeah, I think you're totally right.
03:04I mean, yes, he did use certain cultural and linguistic resentments to mobilize his voters,
03:10and he seems to have been relatively successful with it.
03:13But he's going to have to deal with a minority government.
03:16And he will need support from other parties, which are very unlikely.
03:23The Liberal Party in Quebec has already signaled that there's no way that it would support another referendum.
03:31And even Plamondon himself has acknowledged that he doesn't want a referendum before Trump is no longer in office.
03:39So, I think he's very aware of the realities on the ground.
03:43But he's been quite successful in using the tool of Québécois nationalism to rally voters behind him.
03:53And is this one of, then, the biggest points of friction that are likely to emerge between the Parti Québécois
04:01and the federal government in Ottawa?
04:06Well, I think one eternal point of debate has been immigration law.
04:11This is something that Québécois has always insisted on in different models of federalism,
04:18where people have spoken about more independence for Quebec.
04:21Immigration is always important because it goes to the very heart of cultural nationalism.
04:26So, who actually gets to decide who gets into the country or, in this case, the province?
04:32So, immigration law, which McCartney has signaled he would either increase or stabilize immigration,
04:39is something that is seen as a provincial domain.
04:42And so, this is certainly a point of discontent and of struggle.
04:49The other question that's in the room is about financial questions.
04:53How does the federal government allocate its finances, particularly support in the face of tariffs, US tariffs?
05:03So, there has been a debate around that.
05:05And so, there will certainly be a point where the Parti Québécois will ask for money that hasn't any strings
05:12attached.
05:14Boris, you were mentioning before the actual push for independence in Quebec.
05:21Can you just tell us a bit more about the appetite that exists right now?
05:25Because you were saying there isn't much of an appetite right now, right?
05:29Yeah.
05:30Yeah.
05:30So, in the 1980s and 1990s, the Québécois independence struggle was at its height.
05:36And the 1995 referendum just very, very closely failed to succeed.
05:43We're by no means at the level of support for independence that existed in the 1990s.
05:49Right now, all the polls indicate around 30% support for Québécois independence.
05:55And so, I think there's a very clear acknowledgement that this will not be sufficient to actually bring about another
06:04referendum.
06:05Also, just technically speaking, it's impossible for the Parti Québécois to do this alone.
06:10So, what I think we'll see instead is a relatively unstable government.
06:14And Plan Mandon will be very busy staying in office for four years and fending off votes of no confidence.
06:22All right.
06:23So, for now, let's just say the kind of push for independence in Quebec doesn't look too imminent.
06:31But if we kind of just park Quebec for a second, because Canada also has another push or potential push
06:39for independence.
06:40The results in Quebec come just weeks before an October 19th vote in the western province of Alberta.
06:47Now, what they're having is a series of referendum questions.
06:51They're being put to Albertans, one of which is whether they want to pursue a path to independence.
06:57So, does the result in Quebec then give the separatist movement in Alberta, on the other side of the country,
07:05fresh momentum?
07:09Well, it's two weeks to go.
07:11I don't know if there's any direct cause link.
07:14It certainly offers certain talking points for those arguing in favor of this kind of a referendum.
07:21But I think overall, the dynamics are very different.
07:24In Quebec, this is a question of cultural and linguistic nationalism, also a dissatisfaction with affordability and housing costs.
07:32I mean, this is something we're seeing in all Western democracies, really this kind of dissatisfaction with the cost of
07:38living.
07:39And in Alberta, we're seeing a certain anti-Ottawa resentment coupled with economic concerns.
07:47I don't think there's a direct causal link between the two.
07:51But what I think is interesting is we're in a moment where national nationalism is soaring back globally.
07:57And it puts Canada in a difficult spot because on the one hand, as a Canadian nation, nation state, multinational
08:04state, it's trying to unify, as Mark Carney has tried to do.
08:07At the same time, it is a multinational state.
08:09So we have nationalism on the provincial level, which is threatening and fracturing this kind of unity.
08:16And how concerned should Prime Minister Mark Carney, who actually grew up in Alberta, be about these two possible fronts?
08:24Now, he's been arguing that Canada needs to be united in the face of pressure from US President Donald Trump.
08:32And he's been very clear about that.
08:36Yeah, I think we're going through very turbulent times.
08:38We're seeing the same thing in Germany. We're seeing the same thing in the EU.
08:41We have certain fragmenting tendencies at sub-national or sub-state levels.
08:46And at the same time, we have increasing geopolitical conflicts and risks at a global level, which require unity.
08:53So I don't think he has to be very worried about internal pressures at the moment.
09:01I don't think referendums are going to happen or any kind of succession will happen at the current moment.
09:07But nonetheless, of course, he has to signal to the outside world that he has the Canadian people behind him.
09:14And it is going to be much more difficult for him to send this kind of a message to Donald
09:18Trump, for instance, given these referendums.
09:22So it shows a certain fragmentation.
09:24But ultimately, I think for him, the decisive point will be to emphasize, keep emphasizing the risks of the current
09:31moment.
09:32Yeah, it's also interesting with regards to sort of Canada's image abroad, right?
09:39Because if there's these sort of internal issues taking place and Mark Carney is calling for this unity.
09:47I mean, does that sort of undermine then Canada's strength abroad if Mark Carney is having to deal with these
09:54internal issues?
09:57It can, of course. I mean, people who will try to exploit this will certainly make this point.
10:05On the other hand, you could also say federalism is a way to try and cope with diversity and dissent
10:11in a democratic way.
10:12So maybe this is not actually a weakness, but a strength of multinational and federal state to be able to
10:20live in unity.
10:21But of course, in moments of conflict, in moments of crisis, there's always a push towards decentralization of power.
10:28And this looks different in a in an authoritarian state than it does in a democratic state.
10:33But sometimes democracies look weaker in moments of crisis than they actually are.
10:38But it remains to be seen.
10:42Right. Great to get your analysis, Boris.
10:45We'll leave it there, though. Boris Vormann, a professor of politics from Baird College here in Berlin.
10:52Thanks so much.
