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00:07Ah, yes, it's time for Shine's Lines.
00:10Last week, 8-8.
00:11Week before, 9-7.
00:13Week before that, 9-7.
00:15Then you factor in last night, and we lost.
00:18So, 27-23 on the season.
00:21We'll try and keep it rolling this week.
00:23Our guest this week here on Shine's Lines, he's the best.
00:27One of the funniest, most fearless gamblers in the business.
00:31He has made a career out of picking games, sweating bad beats,
00:34and somehow coming back for more every single Sunday.
00:39Ringer superstar, he's got the hat on to prove it,
00:42my guy, Cousin Sal.
00:44How are ya?
00:45I'm doing great, Shine.
00:47Oh, my God, I got the hat on.
00:48We're dressed the same.
00:50We're wearing these white shirts.
00:51So, after this, we could go bus tables at Tavern on the Green,
00:54whatever we want to do.
00:55I would kill for 27-23.
00:58I would give up at least two of my three sons for 27-23.
01:02Good job by you.
01:02Right.
01:03Not all three.
01:04Two of the three.
01:05I think that is completely fair.
01:07It's been a wild year.
01:08And I got to tell you, going into the week, I don't know about you,
01:12this is the week I feel the worst about.
01:14So, who the hell knows?
01:16And let's start with your team, the Dallas Cowboys.
01:19Because, Sal, I loved them preseason.
01:22I still kind of love them.
01:23You're Cowboys on the road in Houston.
01:26The winless Texans are favored by three.
01:29Take your pick.
01:30Well, you know, everyone's like, yo, you're the best team in the NFC East.
01:34Like, oh, you got all the tools and everything, the offense.
01:37I was like, yeah, we look pretty.
01:38We're the pretty girl at the dance.
01:40But the pretty girl is staying home.
01:41We're not getting any wins is the problem.
01:43So, I do think we're the most talented.
01:44And because of injuries, we could make some noise.
01:47And you know what?
01:48I'm taking us this week.
01:49I don't get in the habit of taking my own team.
01:52I'm grabbing the three points, right?
01:54Is that what we have at a three?
01:55That's right.
01:55At Houston, I think Houston stinks.
01:58I kind of do.
01:59Like, how long are we going to ride this wave here?
02:01Like, I get it.
02:02Like, you know, Danelle Hunter and Anderson.
02:04And that should create a problem for Dallas.
02:07But they've protected Dak pretty well.
02:09They've allowed three sacks all year with him.
02:13Otherwise, we have a really good offense.
02:15I think it's a big lamb in Pickens' day.
02:19Because they're 0-3, I don't think their offense picks up the Texans.
02:22It puts a lot of pressure on C.J. Stroud when you can't run the ball.
02:25So, I'm going to take the three points.
02:2627-26.
02:27We'll probably lose because Aubrey won't kick the ball to the freaking two
02:31or something stupid.
02:32I'll take the three.
02:33So, we're on the same page on everything.
02:36And for the record, I liked Houston before the season.
02:39I'm out.
02:40Like the contest episode in Seinfeld.
02:43I'm out.
02:44That's it.
02:44I've seen enough.
02:45That's it.
02:46I was wrong.
02:46This team is not any good.
02:48C.J. Stroud is not a big-time quarterback.
02:50But I'm with you on the Cowboys.
02:52I kind of love them even more than you do this week.
02:56I think you're right.
02:58Lamb has the chops for the big game.
02:59I think Pickens has a big game.
03:01I think Prescott gets it done.
03:03I'm still annoyed about last week.
03:05I picked Dallas to win.
03:07It was going to happen.
03:08Shoddy ruined everything.
03:09Ruined Rio.
03:10The whole thing was an international incident.
03:12So, I'm with you.
03:14I'm taking Dallas to win.
03:16I'm not even convinced it's going to be that close.
03:19To me, this has 27-17 written all over it.
03:23So, I am all in this week on the Dallas Cowboys.
03:26Now, go ahead, Zach.
03:28We both said 27.
03:29No, I'm sorry.
03:30It's got to be 27.
03:31We know we got that right.
03:32100%.
03:33Now, what's your confidence level on the Cowboys' defense?
03:37Well, it's not good.
03:38We got bodies all over the place.
03:40It's a mass unit.
03:41It could be better.
03:43But I just do think we'll out-slug them in the end.
03:45All right.
03:46The Chiefs laying four and a half on the road in Vegas.
03:51Battle of unbeatens.
03:53Sal, take your pick.
03:54I'm going to go Chiefs here.
03:56I know you say on the road.
03:57But I was at this game four years ago.
04:00It was week 18.
04:01The Chiefs came to town.
04:02They didn't need it.
04:03Mahomes played anyway.
04:04And they wiped them up.
04:05And I just think we're getting the Raiders are overvalued.
04:08I like what they've done.
04:09And Kirk Cousins has done a nice job and everything.
04:11But this is an improved version of the Chiefs, right?
04:14I really feel like, you know, you got Mahomes first in the AFC in passing yards.
04:17Kenneth Walker first in NFL rushing yards.
04:19People thought that was like, oh, that's an all right pickup.
04:23That's been a great pickup.
04:24And if you just look historically, Mahomes 7-0 on the road against the Raiders.
04:28Six of those are by four or more points.
04:31I'm going to lay the four and a half.
04:32I'm going to call it 31-20.
04:34I'm picking the Raiders' money line.
04:36I think Vegas is going to win the game.
04:38And listen, I love the Walker signing in the offseason.
04:41I always said when he was in Seattle, I feel like I liked him in Seattle more than Seattle liked
04:45him in Seattle.
04:47But, you know, this is one of those, Sal, honestly, and I thought the Raiders could start slow.
04:52And I was wrong on that based upon the Jente injury and the Bowers injury.
04:56And I didn't think Kirk Cousins had this in him on the heels of the last couple years in Atlanta.
05:01Clint Kubiak's got it going on.
05:03This offensive line is legit.
05:05This defense is legit.
05:07Crosby and Dean and Walker.
05:09Plus, the offensive line for Kansas City is not very good.
05:14I think they could win this game on defense and with Brock Bowers.
05:18Linderbaum has been phenomenal.
05:20You're not wrong.
05:21I mean, Vegas doesn't really have a home field.
05:23But what's your take on that?
05:25I'm going with the Raiders to win outright.
05:27That's fine.
05:28Look, if I'm going to be wrong on one, let it be this.
05:31The NFL is more fun when the Raiders are good.
05:33I just, I don't know.
05:34I just don't see.
05:35And maybe we'll hate Mahomes and the Chiefs and Andy Reid after this like we're going to cost them to.
05:41All right, Sal.
05:43The Rams, three-and-a-half-point favorites on the road in Philadelphia.
05:47Take your pick.
05:48They kind of have to get moving, right?
05:50If the Rams are even anywhere close, and I know Miles Garrett being out, this is a different team that
05:55we looked at in late August.
05:58Automatic one seed, whatever we said.
06:00But honestly, I think they have a little chip on their shoulder.
06:02I think this is a nice McVay game.
06:04I'm going to lay the points in Philly.
06:06I don't know if you remember last year, there was a block kick run back for a touchdown in this
06:09one.
06:10That was the worst beat of any beats last year.
06:13But, you know, and the refs kind of screwed them a little bit in Denver, and they're already a game
06:17behind Seattle and two behind San Francisco.
06:20I like the Rams to run it up a little on this team, this beat-up Eagles team.
06:25I also don't know where the Eagles' offense, where it's going to come from.
06:28So, I'm going to say 30-19.
06:30Take the Rams' later points.
06:31We're on the same page.
06:32This, to me, is the best bet of the week.
06:33I love the Rams.
06:35I think they're going to win this game by 14 points.
06:38I think the Eagles are broken.
06:40I think they're poorly coached.
06:42I mean, how Sean Mannion has a job, I don't know.
06:44Offensive line isn't any good.
06:46You know, I really think with Puka Nakua coming back, that's a big deal.
06:50Devontae Smith being Hurts, that's a big deal.
06:53I think that Nakua, big game.
06:56Adams, big game.
06:57I think Corum and Williams can run on Philadelphia.
07:01That defense hasn't made a play, hasn't created a turnover all year.
07:05And you nailed it, too.
07:07They got robbed.
07:09I still can't get over what happened, Sal, on Sunday night against Denver.
07:14Yeah.
07:14I like when the rules analyst, like, basically put in his two weeks' notice.
07:19He's like, I don't see anything here.
07:21Talk about if the contest is over.
07:23That's basically what he said there.
07:25So, I can't wait to get into this game with you.
07:28The Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen, favored by six and a half.
07:33This is going to be a fascinating ball game because Drake May is broken.
07:39And a lot of people like to, at the end of the day, talk about Drake Mayby.
07:43You were the one who gave him that nickname.
07:46I mean, everyone now copies it.
07:48That was a Cousin Sal creation to me.
07:52Forget about Drake Mayby.
07:54He's become Zach Wilson.
07:56And that is meant as the ultimate insult.
08:00So, who you got in that game?
08:02It's so weird because I've spent all week, like, defending Drake Mayby a little bit
08:07because I've gone too far the other way.
08:09And you're right.
08:09It's been co-opted.
08:10It's like a commercial now.
08:11And some weirdo ghouls like Skip Bayless have made it their own.
08:15So, I'm kind of getting away from the Drake Mayby stuff.
08:18I think he's going to be a serviceable pro again.
08:20I don't know what's going on.
08:21I can't explain it.
08:22I think he should say he has a shoulder injury or something
08:25because I don't know why these balls are sailing.
08:27But this is not a get-right game for the New England Patriots.
08:31First of all, injuries all over the place.
08:33Defensively, it used to be Gonzalez will at least take care of it.
08:36Things.
08:36No, he's banged up.
08:38Another mash unit there.
08:40Offensively, I don't know how they're going to throw the ball.
08:41And I really feel like the Bills played as poorly as they could last week
08:47and still came out on top.
08:49So, I don't expect that again from Josh Allen.
08:52You know, I think it's a big win for the Bills in high mark.
08:55Double digits for sure.
08:56Yeah, listen.
08:57I mean, the Patriots are coming to town.
08:59And this, to me, is one of those where it's the Patriots, right?
09:03And the Bills, they have decades upon decades of pent-up aggression
09:08and emotion and frustration
09:10because New England has owned them.
09:12Sal, even last year,
09:13when it was supposed to be a Bills championship year,
09:15New England won the division.
09:18So, I think that they have a great opportunity.
09:21Got the shovel out.
09:23Barry, Drake, maybe.
09:25Cousin Sal, creation, by the way.
09:27Take that, Skip Bayless.
09:28You can try and steal it.
09:30It's not going to happen.
09:31This one has 35-13.
09:33I don't even know how the Patriots get 13 written all over it.
09:37Monster game for Josh Allen.
09:39Bengals, two-and-a-half point favorite, Sal,
09:41at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
09:44Take a pick.
09:45You know, I think the Bengals' defense will be a little better
09:49than it was last week against the Steelers.
09:52But think about it, though.
09:53If the Jags don't blow that game in Denver,
09:55we're talking about them as a top-three team at this point, right?
09:59They kind of picked up right where they left off
10:01with the takeaways.
10:03Through three games, they're allowing 12 points per game.
10:06And that includes Denver and New England,
10:08who obviously was in last year's championship game.
10:11They've only allowed three touchdowns in three games.
10:13So I think Joe Burrow's going to have a little trouble
10:15moving this ball.
10:16I like the under in general,
10:18but I like the Jaguars to pull off the upset.
10:20You know, low-scoring game in the 20s, 23-20,
10:24something like that.
10:24A lot of smart people like Jacksonville.
10:26I think this is one of those playoff preview kind of games.
10:30Two quarterbacks I just love watching.
10:32I'm going to take Cincy.
10:33I don't necessarily want to bang the table on it,
10:37and, you know, I'm not going to wager the mortgage on it.
10:39But I think Cincinnati's defense is legit.
10:42Love Dexter Lawrence.
10:43I think Burrow playing great.
10:45And I love what Chase is doing.
10:47I love what Higgins is doing.
10:48If it gets into a shootout as brilliant as Lawrence has been,
10:52I favor Joe Burrow in this game.
10:55I'm going to take the Cincinnati Bengals.
10:57We'll call this one like 31-27.
11:01That will be the pick.
11:03So here's the recap of our picks for the five games.
11:06We are going with the Cowboys, the Rams, the Bills.
11:09We disagree with the Raiders Chiefs
11:12and disagree with the Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
11:15Sal, I want you to take a look at the rest of my picks for week four
11:19so you can poke some holes in it.
11:21Tell me what you like.
11:22Tell me what you dislike.
11:23I thought Ravens-Titans was a really tough one to pick.
11:26I kind of love the Colts.
11:29I think that that Washington game was the biggest fluke we've ever seen.
11:33The Giants game is a tough one.
11:36But honestly, at the end of the day,
11:38I just think that's a hardball kind of game.
11:41I don't know if I trust Arizona on the road in that kind of spot.
11:45I think that San Francisco is an excellent bet this week.
11:50I think the Niners will take care of business
11:53going up against the Denver Broncos.
11:54I kind of really dig Tampa Bay.
11:59Seriously.
12:00I know it's a rookie starter,
12:02but I just think the Packers are a total disaster.
12:06And Minnesota's my survivor pick.
12:08I'll lay the ten and a half.
12:10Give me a take on what you see with my week four picks.
12:13Minnesota, I like a lot.
12:14You don't come across the scenario much
12:17where there's a defensive coordinator
12:19who is suing the opposing team
12:21and probably the best defensive coordinator in the game.
12:24So sorry, Malik Willis.
12:25It's going to be a long day.
12:27Let's see.
12:28What else do you have there?
12:29I disagree with the Tampa thing.
12:30I just I like Jalen Daniels.
12:32He was good enough in Kansas.
12:33And preseason, he was fine.
12:34It's just really tough for these guys to come.
12:36Look, the Packers are done, done, done.
12:39If they can't get this finished with.
12:42So you might be right.
12:44What else?
12:44Giants, I don't care about.
12:45I'm going to find a screen the size of my thumb
12:48to watch that potentially.
12:51And I think Baltimore smacks around Tennessee.
12:54And look for Derrick Henry.
12:55You know, that's a little bit of a revenge game
12:56to score two or more touchdowns.
12:58But yeah, I think we're on the same page on a lot of them.
13:00I'm with you on Derrick Henry.
13:02I think, you know, for DFS this week,
13:03he is a must in my lineup going up against Tennessee.
13:06Now, before we let you go, we know you're a huge Mets fan.
13:10So on the pain scale this past year,
13:14how dreadful was this season?
13:17The whole Pete Alonzo nonsense, everything that transpired.
13:21And how do we fix your Mets?
13:24All right.
13:25Now, I have to be careful what I say
13:26because I, in confidence, told you over text
13:28that I'm meeting Steve Cohen tonight at Jimmy Kimmel Live Show.
13:32So I have a couple hundred tweets between now and then
13:35to delete.
13:37What do I say to the guy?
13:38What do I say?
13:39We saw some nice things with Carson Benj and McClain,
13:42who are probably two and three in Rookie of the Year voting.
13:45Look, to be honest, like management,
13:46people want to blame management.
13:48Sean, we were supposed to win 89 games this year.
13:50Like, Polanco was supposed to play
13:52more than three dozen games, right?
13:54Simeon was supposed to hit his weight.
13:56Bichette wasn't supposed to get going so late.
13:59Kodaj Senga, I don't know what we do with that guy.
14:00Is he going to be like an eighth inning guy?
14:02But here's the thing.
14:04Here's what I'll say.
14:04We just have to stay alive because this guy spends money,
14:08and I think it's going to work out in the next five years
14:10if we just stay alive.
14:12And that might be the hardest part of all for me.
14:15But, yeah, that's what I'll say.
14:17I'm not going to get too down on it
14:18because there have been worse years.
14:20But this was the most embarrassing year of all.
14:22Embarrassing.
14:22Yeah, I think that's fair.
14:23The Alonzo thing drove me.
14:24And I'm not a Mets fan.
14:26But the Alonzo thing drove me nuts
14:27because he should have been a Met forever.
14:29I mean, checked every box.
14:31But Mets baseball, just stay alive.
14:33We'll go with that as a slogan for Mets.
14:36They should hang that banner outside.
14:37It used to say it's outside shade.
14:39The magic is real.
14:40Like, feel the bad.
14:41Whatever.
14:41Just stay alive.
14:42I think that's our new slogan.
14:43Forget about it.
14:44You've got to believe.
14:45It's now just stay alive.
14:46You've got to believe.
14:46Doug McGraw.
14:47That's right.
14:47Cousin Sal, you're the best.
14:49We appreciate it, as always.
14:50Thanks, Sean.
14:51Appreciate it.
14:52Here's this week's Shine Post Parlay.
14:55Every week, I give you a parlay
14:56based strictly on the New York Post
14:58and the California Post teams.
14:59We're talking about the Jets and the Giants,
15:01the Rams, the Chargers, the Niners.
15:03So, here is my post parlay for week number four.
15:07Love the Rams laying the three and a half.
15:09Best bet of the week against Philadelphia.
15:12Garrett Wilson has had a terrific season.
15:1470 or more plus receiving yards against the Bears.
15:1849ers money line against the Denver Broncos.
15:23You can get that in a nice, juicy plus for 49.
15:26But wait, there's more.