00:00How do you measure the progress of a country?
00:03It's a question Professor Winston Ducaran says literary icon Sir Vidya Naipaul once posed to him when he was a
00:11young economist.
00:12Ducaran then quoted all the figures and indices he knew.
00:17He said, young man, you are wrong.
00:23So, I listened carefully.
00:25He said there are only two indices that matter.
00:30If you were to measure the progress of a country, one he called the conversation index.
00:41I won't go into details, but he said if you could find a way to measure what is being talked
00:48about in a country,
00:52that would be the best indicator of progress.
00:56And the second?
00:57As the crane index, the crane index, the number of activities that are happening in the country,
01:07the number of rigs that are being built, the number of whatever they are.
01:12And he said if you can get hold of the conversation index and the crane index,
01:18you will then be able to measure whether this country is progressing or not progressing.
01:24Ducaran used the anecdote to open his presentation at UE's pre-budget forum
01:30before turning to the country's economic outlook ahead of the 2027 budget.
01:36He described the macroeconomic environment as relatively stable,
01:40but pointed to important issues that require attention.
01:43And what we have heard here today would suffice to say that in a macro context,
01:52the economy appears to be relatively stable.
01:57Professor Ducaran says there are some important things to keep an eye on.
02:01On the social inclusion issue, I think we have a major issue to resolve.
02:10Without going into the history, and history is important,
02:17the issue we have to resolve is an issue of what is the right institution
02:22to be able to create the best social balance in the country.
02:29And I use the word institution.
02:32It is not a question anymore of expenditure-generated benefits.
02:38He stressed the importance of maintaining financial buffers.
02:42When the Heritage and Stabilization Fund was actually established,
02:49it was established with the context that it will be a permanent buffer
02:54to the financial woes of the country.
02:58Not an avenue by which you can draw on it when you have problems.
03:04We always will have problems.
03:07The cycle is always moving up and down.
03:09And if you keep using it, you will never have a permanent buffer.
03:14So the second institution we need to put into place
03:17is a permanent financial buffer.
03:20With the date for the 2027 national budget still to be announced,
03:25Ducaran's remarks add to the discussion about economic stability,
03:29social priorities, and long-term financial resilience.
03:33Arvishita Moury, Ruknarein, TV6 News.
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