NIFTY is under pressure, but is this a market crash or a correction—and what should retail investors do now? In this episode of Sauda Khara Khara, GoodReturns’ Arnima Dwivedi speaks with Vaidehi Sejpal, Founder & Chief Product Officer of 021 Trade, about the current market volatility and investment strategy. The discussion covers NIFTY’s fall, US bond yields, FII outflows, crude oil prices, India’s growth story, mid and small-cap valuations, SIPs, buy-on-dips strategy, and the outlook for banking, FMCG, auto and IT sectors. Vaidehi also explains why investors should focus on stock-specific fundamentals, valuation, benchmarking and portfolio diversification instead of panicking during market declines.
NIFTY में लगातार गिरावट के बीच retail investors के लिए बड़ा सवाल है—क्या यह सिर्फ market correction है या आगे और दबाव देखने को मिल सकता है? इस खास episode of Sauda Khara Khara, GoodReturns की Arnima Dwivedi ने Vaidehi Sejpal, Founder & Chief Product Officer, 021 Trade के साथ market outlook पर चर्चा की। इस बातचीत में जानिए NIFTY की गिरावट, US bond yields, FII outflows, crude oil prices, India’s growth story, mid & small cap valuations, SIP strategy, buy on dips, banking, FMCG, auto और IT sectors पर expert perspective। साथ ही समझिए कि volatile market में retail investors को portfolio benchmarking और global diversification पर क्यों ध्यान देना चाहिए।
#Nifty #StockMarket #MarketCrash #SIP #MidCap #SmallCap #FII #GoodReturns #SaudaKharaKhara
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Why Is Stock Market Falling Today? Sensex Down 428 Points, Nifty Below 24,300; 5 Key Reasons Behind Decline :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/why-is-stock-market-falling-today-sensex-down-428points-nifty-below-24300-5key-reasons-behind-drop-1528823.html?ref=DMDesc
Rs 10 Lakh Crore Wealth Added As Sensex Jumps 1,300 & Nifty Up 390 Pts; Why US-Iran Deal Bullish For Markets :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/rs-10-lakh-crore-wealth-created-as-sensex-up-1300-pts-nifty-up-24k-us-iran-peace-deal-market-impact-1515477.html?ref=DMDesc
~PR.474~ED.472~GR.508~HT.178~VG.HM~
NIFTY में लगातार गिरावट के बीच retail investors के लिए बड़ा सवाल है—क्या यह सिर्फ market correction है या आगे और दबाव देखने को मिल सकता है? इस खास episode of Sauda Khara Khara, GoodReturns की Arnima Dwivedi ने Vaidehi Sejpal, Founder & Chief Product Officer, 021 Trade के साथ market outlook पर चर्चा की। इस बातचीत में जानिए NIFTY की गिरावट, US bond yields, FII outflows, crude oil prices, India’s growth story, mid & small cap valuations, SIP strategy, buy on dips, banking, FMCG, auto और IT sectors पर expert perspective। साथ ही समझिए कि volatile market में retail investors को portfolio benchmarking और global diversification पर क्यों ध्यान देना चाहिए।
#Nifty #StockMarket #MarketCrash #SIP #MidCap #SmallCap #FII #GoodReturns #SaudaKharaKhara
Also Read
Stock Market Crash: Sensex Hits 27-Month Low, Nifty Falls To 6-Month Low; FIIs Exit $40 Billion In 2 Years :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/stock-market-crash-sensex-hits-27-month-low-nifty-falls-to-6-month-low-fiis-exit-40-billion-in-2-yrs-1537943.html?ref=DMDesc
Why Is Stock Market Falling Today? Sensex Down 428 Points, Nifty Below 24,300; 5 Key Reasons Behind Decline :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/why-is-stock-market-falling-today-sensex-down-428points-nifty-below-24300-5key-reasons-behind-drop-1528823.html?ref=DMDesc
Rs 10 Lakh Crore Wealth Added As Sensex Jumps 1,300 & Nifty Up 390 Pts; Why US-Iran Deal Bullish For Markets :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/rs-10-lakh-crore-wealth-created-as-sensex-up-1300-pts-nifty-up-24k-us-iran-peace-deal-market-impact-1515477.html?ref=DMDesc
~PR.474~ED.472~GR.508~HT.178~VG.HM~
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NewsTranscript
00:03। । । । । । । ।
00:35। । ।
01:00। । । । । । । । ।
01:13This is why today your views are very important for us.
01:17But first of all, you want to understand what you are seeing from the bazaar in this time.
01:23How is the share market in this time?
01:25Because it doesn't look good for investors.
01:28If you have seen social media, people are posting that the bull will be able to raise the bull.
01:34Because the bearish market trend is showing.
01:38We are seeing the crash of headlines in newspapers.
01:40When you are seeing the bulls, people are seeing bloodbath.
01:44What is the problem for the bazaar?
01:48If you will see that you have to tell bloodbath,
01:53People are thinking that they enter the bear market,
01:57but if you have seen the bear market,
02:01which is widely accepted,
02:03there is more than 20% of the high rate.
02:06that too broader market
02:1050 50 percent
02:14calendar year
02:15but if you look at the small cap
02:18etc
02:20it's almost flat
02:22but if you include today
02:24then maybe one to two percent
02:26so this is not called this
02:28that a bloodbath is happening
02:29of course
02:30in the next three months
02:33we don't know
02:35but of course we can put some estimate on to it
02:37okay
02:38ma'am if we just told you
02:41if we look at the picture of the market
02:43then obviously
02:45if the bazaar is a good
02:47then we need to focus on quality stocks
02:48on the top 10 stocks
02:52if we talk about the top 10 stocks
02:54which are very good valuations
02:56in this time
02:57it's a very good value
02:58so if I say
03:01if we look at the mouthwatering scenario
03:02in sectors
03:04then it's probably not wrong
03:05but fundamentals
03:09also are strong
03:10Indian economy
03:11are very strong
03:13earnings are promising
03:14if we try to judge the first quarter
03:16because of the basis
03:17for the market
03:18and we try to judge the future
03:19and talk about the quarter's earnings
03:21then the scenario is promising
03:24after that
03:26there is a GDP gain
03:27and the fundamentals are strong
03:29after that
03:30the bazaar is small
03:31so
03:32does India
03:32do not trust the market in the growth story
03:34or the global situation
03:36affect the global
03:38so first of all
03:39GDP and share market
03:41hand in hand
03:45on a long term period
03:47horizon
03:4810 years
03:48or 20 years
03:50day to day
03:50week to week
03:51monthly or yearly
03:52they will not
03:53and the share market
03:57generally is dependent
03:58on the price of the stock
03:59and the price of the stock
04:00gets affected
04:02through macros
04:02which I have told
04:04that the global
04:04is happening
04:06there are major factors
04:08like 5%
04:09US bond deals
04:10plus FII
04:12outflows
04:12and the Iran war
04:14which is 50%
04:15which is more
04:16than the US crude oil
04:18so majorly
04:20these 3 factors
04:21this immediate impact
04:23we see
04:24on the earnings
04:25and on the price
04:27and GDP
04:29is
04:30taking the last one year
04:31we see the number of lag
04:33from the lag
04:34and GDP
04:35we see the productivity
04:37in the economy
04:38directly
04:39we cannot attribute
04:41to the listed companies
04:42because there are many
04:43unlisted companies
04:44and businesses
04:45which are
04:46starting to add
04:47to the economy
04:47and this is the best example
04:51this correlation
04:53and rather
04:54the correlation
04:55is not in GDP
04:56and the market
04:57it is China
04:58China
04:59from 2007
05:00to now
05:01its economy
05:04is 4 times
05:04but
05:06the share market
05:07is also
05:07at 2007
05:08peak
05:09and this is true
05:13for all economies
05:14so
05:15that's why
05:16we don't say
05:18that
05:20investors
05:20don't trust
05:21to India
05:21in fact
05:23world bank
05:24and
05:24IMF
05:25if you see
05:25your estimates
05:27then
05:27your GDP
05:29is 7.8%
05:30expected
05:31which is higher
05:33than
05:33China
05:34also
05:35and all the other markets
05:36as well
05:36and it is the fastest growing economy
05:39so definitely
05:40growth story
05:41in India
05:41will become
05:42but
05:42the share market
05:44is the current situation
05:46due to the current situation
05:48these sectors
05:50are expensive
05:51sectors
05:52like
05:52mid-small
05:53market
05:55if you see
05:5630 earnings
05:58which is still very high
06:02then
06:02the correction
06:03will come
06:04but
06:04that doesn't mean
06:05that the economy
06:06is not going strong
06:07okay
06:09sectors
06:10you have also said
06:11that it is expensive
06:12but
06:12there is also
06:13any sector
06:14that is expensive
06:16sector
06:17I meant
06:18mid-small cap
06:19okay
06:20so
06:20if we focus on the mid-small caps
06:22if we focus on the mid-small caps
06:25then
06:25is it better
06:27that
06:27mid-cap
06:28and small caps
06:29will be better
06:30because if we look at data-wise
06:31mid-small caps
06:33mid-small caps
06:33has more than large caps
06:34performed
06:35that is also
06:36when
06:37nifty is not performing
06:38absolutely
06:39if you look at SIP data
06:40August
06:41SIP data
06:42we will also know
06:43that around 50%
06:44of the SIP flow
06:45mid-small cap funds
06:47has gone
06:47in fact
06:48that is one of the reasons
06:51and the new rule
06:52came from
06:52the mid-small cap funds
06:5680%
06:57of the funds
06:59that they get
06:59in the mid-small cap
07:01companies
07:03will go
07:03into the mid-small cap
07:04because
07:05any which way
07:06the liquidity
07:06is lower
07:07in large cap
07:08in comparison
07:09so
07:10like 15,000 crore inflow
07:12came from
07:12every month
07:14then
07:15prices
07:15will increase
07:16and
07:17the valuation
07:17will increase
07:20the price
07:21in large cap
07:21that is
07:22definitely
07:22yes
07:25please continue
07:34foreign
07:36So, it seems that valuations have decreased and discounted stocks, but if stock is discounted,
07:46it doesn't mean that valuation is correct and correct. For example, if a stock is 100,
07:54he went to 80, and at the same time his earnings went to 5 rupees to 3 rupees.
08:00So, the P-E ratio is up to 20 to 26. That means that I am getting the stock 20
08:08% discount,
08:11but it is also expensive. So, obviously, when we invest in large caps,
08:16but we want to invest on the basis of the stock and the value of each stock.
08:30So, this is a very important thing. In some headlines and news reports,
08:35we have read that in 2011, it was such a bad situation for the market, especially for the nifty.
08:42And after 2011, this is a year of 2026.
08:45It is such a bad way.
08:48Does the nifty go down? Fundamentally, what kind of indications are there now?
08:55So, if the US yields, 5% yields continue and increase, plus Iran's war,
09:09oil prices increase, and inflation already in India has increased,
09:15in January. In January, it was around 2.7% and now, I think, 4.7%.
09:19So, the increase in inflation is directly on every company,
09:23and it also feels like a common person. So, if we can see all this,
09:28then we can say that there is still scope of corrections in the market,
09:34especially mid-small cap.
09:35Yes, mid-small cap.
09:38I hope there is a correction in the mid-small cap.
09:39But, if we say that if we say that if the bond deal is 5%,
09:44then there will be a risk risk.
09:47Because if the bond deal is less than a situation,
09:50we are not looking at it.
09:51The experts, why are we worried about this?
09:54Why are we worried about this?
10:03How are we worried about this situation?
10:04How are we worried about this situation?
10:04And, what is the situation for the US markets?
10:07Because there is panic-created,
10:09because there is a bond deal spread.
10:11Okay, so, I will answer these two parts.
10:14First, the bond deal that we know is increased,
10:19what is the reason behind it?
10:21The reason, the major reason,
10:24which the Fed has also told,
10:25is that the hyper-scalers,
10:28like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta,
10:33they have done a lot of investment data centers
10:37which has raised a lot of debt.
10:39They have raised a lot of debt.
10:40They have raised a lot of debt in the US markets.
10:43So, it is directly in competition with Fed.
10:46They have raised the same capital.
10:48After the US market is exhausted,
10:51they have raised a lot of debt in the US markets.
10:55They are raised in Europe,
10:56the ECBs, and other other countries.
10:58In Europe, they have raised a lot of debt.
10:59the Fed has competition.
11:02And, the build has been growing.
11:04And, that will increase,
11:06until you will have the price,
11:07and the spending will continue.
11:11And, that will continue,
11:11this spending will continue.
11:12When will the prices continue?
11:13We will grow.
11:15Even people are talking about AI bubbles,
11:16either.
11:17By the AI bubbles,
11:17it will be slightly falling,
11:19it will decline and stabilize.
11:24This is also destroying.
11:24So the question was that you explained the bond yield, and after that, is there any scenario
11:32that you see in the US?
11:33Yes, and how does this impact in the US?
11:36In the US, it seems that the US markets are very overvalued.
11:43If you have a deep dive, you will know that the top 100 companies are included in AI-related
11:52and AI-periphery services included, the value is very high.
11:57But the bottom 250-300 companies are actually in the bear market.
12:04That means, they are now in the 20% of the high.
12:09So the divergence that they say, I think in the US,
12:13there is a lot of divergence in the US in the bear market,
12:18and the rest of the companies are in the high valuation.
12:19Yes.
12:21So in the US, there is a panic in the US,
12:23and they are waiting for AI-bubble.
12:26And then they are not waiting.
12:29All right.
12:30So ma'am, now is the time to buy and dips in the bear market?
12:35Because we hear a lot of this,
12:37that when the bear market comes down,
12:39they tend to get a good quality stock,
12:41and they tend to get a good price.
12:42And they need to buy them so that they can get paid long-term.
12:52And they have to pay a good price.
12:54And they can't pay for it,
13:00And if the bear market has paid for it,
13:03and they can't pay for it.
13:15Because the value of this is enough for it.
13:15If you miss out the best days, then your returns are less than 50%
13:20This means that these days, the extreme days that we see, fall or increase,
13:27Basically, you buy and sell. If we miss those days,
13:34Obviously, all of us know that there are a lot of issues.
13:38But these days are always concentrated.
13:40As we have seen, this week is concentrated.
13:43But we cannot do this time.
13:46Timing the market is a psychic skill.
13:51Because we cannot do this time,
13:54We should continue with our SIPs.
13:57We have to continue with our SIPs.
13:59Because we don't know when we are going to dip.
14:01If we miss the SIPs, we have to stop the SIPs.
14:06Then the benefit of SIPs from the SIPs,
14:09The major benefit of the SIPs is that it will average the cost of the year or the duration of
14:15the year.
14:15If we miss that, then we will have a problem.
14:18So I would say that we don't need to panic.
14:20In fact, dips are going to dip.
14:23So we should continue with our SIPs investing.
14:25But just look at which stocks and how funds we invest.
14:30Okay.
14:32When we talk about mid-cap and small-cap,
14:35We have seen that the flows are very high.
14:39When the market was volatile,
14:40The market was also volatile.
14:42The mid-cap and small-cap are also very volatile.
14:45But mid-cap and small-cap are highly volatile.
14:48What is reliable to invest here now?
14:52Yes.
14:53The value is now very much.
14:55If the market will be less,
14:58The possibility will be less,
15:01The possibility will be less.
15:13In the mid-cap portfolio,
15:16So we will have to be more scrutiny
15:20And then we will have to fix it in this portfolio.
15:23Maybe sell it,
15:25If it is very expensive now.
15:27Okay.
15:28Ma'am,
15:29There are not FIIs in a market.
15:31We all know.
15:32And when we will not come,
15:34This doesn't know anyone.
15:35Because there are many global situations
15:38Like FIIs in the emerging markets.
15:42But in the Indian market,
15:44DII's has a big role.
15:46The mutual funds have kept the bazaars
15:48One way.
15:50But then,
15:52If it is said that
15:54In the mutual funds,
15:56Retail investors' SIP
15:57Is this the market doing this?
16:00Definitely,
16:01We are starting to test.
16:02But if we are starting to test,
16:05In the last 5 years,
16:082020's,
16:09The investor base is 4% greater.
16:13Now,
16:1313 crore is made.
16:16The new investor base,
16:18Which is basically the majority investor base,
16:20They have seen single-digit returns
16:23Or negative returns
16:24Now,
16:25They have not seen single-digit returns
16:25Now,
16:27The price has come from,
16:29But
16:30As soon as a little bit
16:32Get out of this,
16:34we will get to know that the true test that you are talking about, you will get to know the
16:39true test that we will get to know.
16:41So maybe 3-4 days, we will actually have some idea.
16:48And when the September data will get out,
16:51we will get to know that all the bloodbaths that we are talking about,
16:57the crash has effected anything.
17:01We will get to know about the sectors,
17:05because we have to go to the end of this episode.
17:09But now the sectors are showing us as losers in the market.
17:15If we looked at the last week,
17:17we got hit in IT,
17:19we got hit in FMCG,
17:20we got hit in PSU banks,
17:24we got hit in auto and reality.
17:29These are all the top losers in this week.
17:32Although,
17:34your energy, metal and pharma had a little gain and recovery,
17:38but it was highly volatile.
17:41Where do we put money in this time?
17:42Is there any sector?
17:43Or will we get to know the stock specific?
17:46Or will we get to know the stock specific?
17:46That is the best idea.
17:48That is the best strategy that you have told us.
17:50We have to be stock specific.
17:51Because we will miss the sector,
17:55either we will miss the good stocks,
17:58or we will put good stocks in the sector,
18:00and we will get to know the good stocks in our portfolio.
18:04Especially in the volatile market,
18:05this is a great possibility.
18:08If we talk about the sector,
18:10we will talk about the banking sector,
18:14the private sector,
18:16the private sector,
18:17I think, has been increased.
18:21The NPAs have been reduced.
18:23The credit has been reduced.
18:25The fundamentals,
18:26if we look at the fundamentals,
18:27it is true.
18:35Yes,
18:35there is never one cockroach in the kitchen.
18:38There is never one cockroach in the kitchen.
18:39if we look at the money in the central danger of such problems,
18:44so we can enjoy risks,
18:45or also involve lessons.
18:49Open export of AUTO and FMCG is run by himself.
18:53I think so,
18:54let's hear of that.
18:55Here,
18:55the PI recent disaster.
18:56He really had to know that it is a good prize.
18:57And I wonder why nothing should resume the tax system,
18:58we have a lot of commodities and so on the other end of the year
19:06and we have a lot of commodities and so on the other end of the year
19:08and I think the industry is a lot of Chinese automakers
19:10and automakers have a lot of over capacity which is
19:14foreign markets are still going on and pressure on the whole world
19:18to reduce prices on every auto car maker.
19:24So it's the same thing here too.
19:27And the IT sector is all dependent on AI.
19:30We won't even know what the effect is.
19:33In the near future, we will have to see volatility in the market.
19:39So in the end, just one or two lines,
19:42if you can quickly tell us about retail investors,
19:45we will wind up the show here.
19:51Depending on which stocks are in your portfolio,
19:54we have to compare with the benchmark.
19:57We can't compare our small caps with the nifty-fifty benchmark.
20:02So this is a mistake that people generally do.
20:05First of all, we have to benchmark.
20:08Second, don't stop because the market is falling.
20:11In fact, now we can get the benefits of the lower cost.
20:18And we have to invest here.
20:21Then we can invest in other geographies.
20:24And in currencies,
20:25like Indian currency,
20:27we have seen how much percent has dropped,
20:29around almost 6% dollar terms.
20:32So investing globally and in currencies.
20:35And last thing, one eye on the telescope and one eye on the microscope.
20:41Okay. All right.
20:43So broader vision is also very important.
20:46And stock-specific attention is also very important.
20:49The last line that I have said,
20:50this is the same thing.
20:53Yes.
20:53This is the same thing.
20:55This is the same thing.
20:56And you also have to say that,
20:58look at the bazaar,
21:00but don't panic.
21:01Because there are many places,
21:03where you can get better opportunities.
21:05You can get a little bit of diversification.
21:08And first of all,
21:10and first of all,
21:11and first of all,
21:11and first of all,
21:12and first of all,
21:12and first of all,
21:12your financial advisor.
21:14Thank you so much, ma'am,
21:15for joining us today.
21:17Thank you so much.
21:18It was nice talking to you.