00:00Coming back to equity markets, sir, current situation in which we are discussing.
00:05What is the outlook on the Nifty or broader market in short to medium term?
00:11Valuation multiples, the PE we are discussing, is there a pressure on it?
00:17Definitely pressure on it, because if the yield increases the US,
00:21the first company that was performing, and the ones who got the valuation,
00:26they need to perform a better performance to get the same valuation.
00:32The investors, the big investors, look at the spread.
00:37So today, they want to maintain the same spread,
00:41they will expect a better performance from our Indian corporates to maintain the valuations.
00:46Because our valuation is already high globally, if we compare it.
00:50Now, to maintain that, because we have growth, that's why we are high.
00:54But if we have to maintain that, and because the US yield has increased,
00:58then we need to perform more and more better
01:01to make ourselves attractive in the equity market.
01:05Nifty is already down to 23,000, sir.
01:09Indian equity markets can be attractive in the near future.
01:13Short to medium term outlook, what do you see in the future?
01:16I think next 1-2 quarter will be tough.
01:18It will be tough because, again, the US bond has increased, crude is hovering around 100 dollars,
01:26right?
01:26There is definitely pressure in the rupee.
01:29So if we keep these three factors in our attention,
01:33then definitely our Indian equity market will be pressure in the next 1-2 quarter.
01:37Definitely pressure will be pressure, okay? Unless one or the other situation eases,
01:43then by that time then definitely it will be better.
01:47So if we look at US Fed's next quarter, what are the guidance?
01:54They also play as to how our equity market is.
01:58Indian companies' borrowing cost of borrowing cost,
02:01because we are talking about the next two quarter earnings.
02:03Indian companies will be dealing with borrowing cost,
02:06in fact it will affect the bank's lending cost.
02:11In fact, it will affect the bank's lending cost.
02:12Yes, so when the country's yield increases,
02:16then the borrowing cost definitely increases.
02:19Here, more than the US yield and the Japanese yield,
02:21we have to see that our GSEC rate is increasing.
02:31So if the GSEC rate is increasing, then our GSEC rate will increase.
02:36There are a lot of large Indian companies who have received ECB loans at some rate
02:43since 2-3 years before the rate was reduced.
02:46If they have a rollover for the next 6 months,
02:51then the rollover will be expensive than what they had originally bought.
02:55So I think there will be some impact
03:00where all these rollovers will come in the next 6-12 months.
03:06Okay.
03:07Sir, the last question is that we have discussed about the markets.
03:10We have discussed the bond market on you.
03:13The most important market is that the bond,
03:16the Treasury yields of the US and the Japan bonds are the highest rates of the bond.
03:23That is our commodity market.
03:24Gold and silver, bullion basically has been very volatile.
03:28In fact, if we talk about near future or recent rates,
03:32then the Sona has been below its level of 1.5 lakh rupees.
03:36In this case, there is a crash in bullion.
03:38There is a lot of panic created.
03:40When will this panic be created?
03:42I think bullion, you have seen that over the last 12 months,
03:48it has increased quite a lot.
03:49So I will not say that it has a crash from peak.
03:53I think it has stabilized somewhere.
03:56Okay.
03:57And I think next few months,
03:59I think bullion is in this range
04:12then we will be paying attention to the current rate.
04:14Then we expect gold to rise further.
04:16Otherwise, if we look at this current rate,
04:17gold has already given a good return.
04:22Okay.
04:22but we cannot expect it to be like last year so next year it will run like 30-40%
04:29return
04:29so it has already given a good return. I think it will stabilize in this area only for next few
04:37quarters.
04:38Is there a lot of pressure on gold and silver?
04:43Yes, it has been a little bit less but it has been a factor in. Unless something is very drastic,
04:51I don't see that it will crash.
04:52But I don't see that it will increase.
04:56How much range do we expect? Because it has already come down from 1.500,000.
05:02So it is a tough question, what range do we expect? But I don't see that it will be more
05:07than 10%.
05:09Okay, alright. Thank you so much Vinit Ji, for joining us today.
05:14Because there are many bazaars that have affected the bond market.
05:18And specifically, when the Middle East tension has increased, the bond market has increased.
05:25Because it is a lot of volatile bond market.
05:27And interest rates, central banks have increased.
05:32US banks have increased, England have increased, Japan has increased.
05:34All the central banks have increased.
05:37The Indian markets are also reacting.
05:40So, there is a lot of confusion.
05:41There is a lot of clarity on your questions.
05:45Thank you so much.
05:46Thank you, Anima, for having me.
05:48Yes, the bond market is very volatile.
05:51And because of that, equity market, bullion market is very volatile.
05:54But that is the world we live in.
05:57And we are hoping that things will normalize sooner than later.
06:00Thank you so much, sir.
06:01We hope the same.
06:03Thank you so much, sir.
