00:00Warning for the global community has now become a heated topic for politics in India.
00:05Addressing an event in New York, External Affairs Minister Esra Shankar flagged the ongoing Ukraine and Iran conflicts
00:11and highlighted how these wars could lead to a food crisis in the coming months.
00:15He warned that the two conflicts have already had a devastating impact on global South economies,
00:21especially the energy sector, and said that the situation could see major grain exporters struggling to send out their shipments.
00:28But the Congress Party is using his words of caution to claim vindication for Rahul Gandhi.
00:33The Congress has accused the government of ignoring Rahul Gandhi's warnings,
00:37pointing to the Lok Sabha leader of opposition's claim earlier this year that India would soon be hit by an
00:42economic tsunami.
00:43The Congress has also attacked the Prime Minister, saying that had he listened to Rahul Gandhi's advice and acted in
00:49time,
00:50India would not be facing the current crisis.
00:55If you look at these two conflicts, the Ukraine and now the Iran-Gulf conflict,
01:03they've actually had a devastating impact on global South economies.
01:08And we are particularly concerned about, you know, one, of course, the energy situation,
01:18because as it is, the market is very tight.
01:22And on top of that, if, you know, people play politics with it,
01:27that adds to the complications of the market,
01:29it will drive up prices at a time when people should actually be stabilizing prices.
01:34So, part of it is actually the security of oil supplies and part of it is the politics of oil
01:40supplies.
01:41And they are feeding into each other.
01:43And they are creating, you know, they are creating a double crisis or an aggravated crisis.
01:50When it comes to food, you know, we are today looking at a situation where some of the major grain
01:59exporters
01:59will not be able to send out their shipments, particularly out of the Black Sea.
02:05We are already looking at major, significant fertilizer shortages,
02:10both because the key producers have been in the Middle East and Russia.
02:16So, and their fertilizer production has been impacted.
02:20On top of it, we are looking at a super al-Nino.
02:22So, there is going to be a major food crisis, probably, you know, in the coming months.
02:31And let's now listen in to what Lok Sabha leader of opposition Rahul Gandhi had said
02:36while warning of an economic tsunami.
03:08So, for France, one global shock.
03:11Let's understand about the warning by External Affairs Minister S.J. Shankar.
03:15So, as far as food is concerned, super al-Nino threatens agricultural output
03:19because it could disrupt rainfall and temperatures affecting the crop production.
03:23Major food producers may face bad harvest because of the adverse weather in key producing regions
03:29that could impact and reduce the agricultural yields.
03:33Grain movement disrupted across worlds.
03:35So, weather shots and trade disruptions can affect the availability and movement of grains.
03:39Food security is now under pressure because lower supplies and higher prices
03:43can make access to adequate food more difficult.
03:46Let's now understand about fuel.
03:48West Asia conflict threatens energy security.
03:50We've already witnessed that how conflict in West Asia has disrupted oil and gas supplies
03:56and increased the energy market risk.
03:58Energy and trade routes face disruption that we've seen in the Strait of Hormuz.
04:02Conflict interfered with important transport and supply routes, raising the delivery costs.
04:07Shipping vulnerabilities add to the risks.
04:10So, threats to maritime routes can delay the energy shipments.
04:13And also increase threat and insurance costs.
04:15Fertilizers.
04:16So, conflict is stopping fertilizer production and trade.
04:20So, it is disrupting the fertilizer manufacturing facilities and exports and international supply chains.
04:25Shortages compound food security pressure.
04:28So, shortages of fertilizer availability can lower the crop yields and also increase the agricultural costs.
04:36Supply disruptions hit agricultural inputs because interruptions in global trade
04:40can make essential farm inputs more expensive.
04:43Finance.
04:44Tariff and discriminatory trade practices are prevailing.
04:48So, higher tariffs and unequal trade measures can restrict commerce and raise costs.
04:52Developing nations face financing pressures because higher borrowing costs
04:57and tighter financial conditions can make it harder for developing countries to fund growth.
05:01Finance being used as a geopolitical weapon.
05:04Particularly, we've seen that in the case of United States.
05:07How financial restrictions and tariffs are being weaponized.
05:12And market access and sanctions add to the economic strain.
05:15So, trade barriers and sanctions can limit market access, investment and economic activity.
05:20Let's also understand what exactly is El Nino.
05:24So, it is warming of Pacific Ocean water.
05:26So, El Nino is a periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
05:31It alters the global weather pattern.
05:33So, this ocean warming disrupts normal atmospheric circulation
05:37and changes the rainfall and temperatures worldwide.
05:41It can weaken India's monsoon.
05:43So, El Nino can reduce monsoon rainfall over India, although the impact varies by year.
05:47It can cause heat waves and droughts.
05:50So, it can increase the risk of hotter conditions and drought in some regions in India.
05:54And it can also wreak havoc on food grain production.
05:57So, reduced rainfall and extreme heat can damage the crops and lower the agricultural yields.
06:03Let's understand in detail its impact on the food production.
06:07So, weaker monsoons can reduce crop yields.
06:10Less rainfall can limit water availability and reduce the output of crops.
06:14Heat waves and droughts stress crops and livestock.
06:17So, extreme heat and dry conditions can damage the crops and reduce the livestock health and productivity.
06:23Water shortages can affect irrigation because reduced water availability
06:27can make it harder for farmers to irrigate fields adequately.
06:31Lower production can then lead to higher food prices
06:34because when food supply falls while demand remains high, prices may increase.
