00:00China's President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington has been a lavish affair, full
00:07of pomp and carefully choreographed symbolism. A glittering state dinner at the White House
00:13saw Xi and U.S. President Donald Trump raise a toast to U.S.-China relations with both
00:20leaders, emphasizing cooperation and stability.
00:25The President Xi and I both understand that we represent different systems, but the ties
00:31between our people endure and we've never gotten along better.
00:37Well, the symbolism began the moment Xi's plane touched down on American soil. Trump was there
00:44to welcome him on the red carpet, a highly unusual move that sent a clear signal about
00:50the importance of this visit. Trump says the two leaders made tremendous strides, but
00:57what have they actually agreed on? Has this visit produced any meaningful breakthroughs
01:03or did the pomp and pageantry cover over a relationship that remains divided over some
01:10of its biggest challenges? Well, to help us answer that, we're joined by Professor Steve
01:16Sang, who is director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London. He's also author
01:22of a new book, China's Global Strategy under Xi Jinping. Thank you very much for joining us.
01:29We really appreciate it. I just want to begin then by asking you beyond that symbolism, what
01:36do you think was the most concrete outcome of the visit?
01:41Well, the most concrete outcome is ironically, what you have just described, the symbolic demonstration
01:51of a steady, strong relationship between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. That is the one thing both
02:00leaders agreed to, both wanted the summit to be a success. They need that image being beamed across their
02:11countries and across the world. And this is what they are after most. The specifics are of secondary
02:18importance. So it's all about that symbolism then is what you're saying?
02:24Well, they both know that China and the United States are engaged in structural competitions and
02:33rivalries. And the level of trust between the two countries is very low, and they are not going to be
02:42able to repair that. Fundamentally, if the United States should want, and President Trump himself
02:53clearly doesn't get to worry about the threat of AI to humanity as a whole, he is not going to
03:02be
03:02touching a cord with Xi Jinping. Because Xi Jinping would be really concerned if AI in China
03:09should pose a threat to his and the Chinese Communist Party's hold to power, not to whether it is going
03:17to kill off all other Americans in the world. Why should Xi Jinping be worried about that?
03:24So there are limits to fundamentally what can be achieved even on something like AI, let alone something
03:32like Iran or Taiwan or Ukraine or any of the other trade issues.
03:39Yeah. And talking of trade, I want to talk about AI in a moment in a bit more depth, but
03:43let's just
03:44pick up on that last point about trade. What did the two men agree in relation to trade? And of
03:51course,
03:52tariffs, something that we know Donald Trump is very, very much in favour of.
03:58Well, he agrees to perhaps the absolute minimum. And that agreement was reached by working level
04:07officials and not by the two leaders themselves, which is to extend the truce on trade or tariff war
04:16for two months. The Chinese would have preferred the truce to be extended until the end of the Trump
04:25administration. The Trump administration did not agree to that because they want to put a bit more
04:33pressure in periodic renegotiation with China to get China to deliver what China had already promised
04:41to do. And of course, the Chinese are not delivering everything they agree with the Americans.
04:47So this is the kind of illustration of how little we are being able to get. But it also shows
04:53that
04:53they both want to make sure that they have something in place so that at the end of the summits,
05:00they will say that we have extended the trade tariff truce.
05:04Even though, as you say, it's just until January. Another topic that was mentioned and we all know
05:13is a very sensitive one when it comes to US-China relations is Taiwan. And what we're told is that
05:20Xi
05:21again urged Washington to oppose Taiwanese independence. And there's also been attention
05:27on the Trump administration's pause of a major arms package for Taipei. Do you think this summit
05:33moved the needle on Taiwan at all? Or are both sides essentially where they were before they met?
05:42Well, Donald Trump is an exceptional American president when it comes to Taiwan. And the Chinese
05:49understands that. With all other American presidents, the Chinese know that the Americans will not
05:56budge over Taiwan. And the American president is unlikely to say something that is completely
06:03contradictory to what his advisors would be advising him over Taiwan, which is for America to
06:08continue to continue to support Taiwan. But with Donald Trump, particularly in his visits to Beijing in
06:17May, he mentioned that Taiwan is something that could be part of a deal. It would be something to
06:23trade. So it created an incentive for Xi Jinping to push his luck and basically try it on Trump. And
06:33he may just
06:34get lucky. And Donald Trump may just say something which is against longstanding U.S. policy. If it
06:41happens, wonderful from China's perspective. If it doesn't happen, what does China have to lose by Xi
06:49Jinping pushing it? Not too hard, but put it on the agenda for Trump to stimulate him perhaps to
06:56potentially accidentally misspeak. Yeah, very interesting and certainly one for us to watch.
07:03Now, we did mention before AI because, of course, the world's two biggest economies are competing for
07:10leadership in AI, as you very clearly said. Yet both sides have talked about cooperation. And it was
07:16interesting that we saw some of America's biggest tech leaders at the state dinner from Elon Musk to Sam
07:24Altman of OpenAI. Do you think that was a signal that Washington and Beijing see some room for
07:31collaboration in collaboration in AI? Or are they still fundamentally rivals in this space?
07:40What scope for cooperation is purely rhetorical from the Chinese side? If the Chinese were serious
07:48about trying to cooperate with the Americans on AI, then Xi Jinping would have put in his delegation
07:57leaders in China. They are not there in Washington. So clearly, they are not serious about trying to work out
08:07the specifics and practical side of things. And here you have a situation where you have some leaders in the
08:17of the AI industries who are concerned now about security of AI, whether we can actually contain AI moving forward.
08:29And an American president who fundamentally seems skeptical of AI posing a problem, a threat to humanity.
08:37And the Chinese are not concerned about that specific problem, but they are concerned about potential risk of AI posing
08:46to
08:46the Communist Party. But they are in a bit of a conundrum there, because if AI in China should in
08:54fact pose a threat to the
08:56Chinese Communist Party, the last thing the Chinese Communist Party would want to do is to acknowledge that it could
09:03be
09:04threatened by something like AI. So they will simply articulate some platitude of we should share concerns about the need
09:14to keep AI
09:15under human control. And for human control in China, it breeds the Communist Party's control.
09:22Yeah, very interesting. I mean, overall, I'd love to just get your take on how we should judge this visit.
09:28Do you think it was genuinely important for U.S.-China relations or was it really about managing differences rather
09:36than trying to resolve them?
09:39I think managing differences and containing the risk of escalation in tension between China and the United States is itself
09:51an
09:51an important objective for both leaders. And I think they are going to achieve that.
09:58So when they focus on the optics of this summit, it may appear as something that is completely empty.
10:05But I think it is more than just something entirely empty. They are not going to agree on things that
10:11they cannot agree on.
10:13But they can agree to essentially a truth between the Trump administration and the Chinese government and the Xi,
10:24which was something that effectively was not quite as well achieved under the Biden administration,
10:31with which the Chinese found very, very difficult to work with.
10:36Professor Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London.
10:42Many thanks for talking to us. Very interesting insights.
