00:00Recently, there was a summit between the US and China.
00:02President Trump greeted President Xi Jinping in person.
00:04But you shouldn't see this as a reconciliation between the US and China.
00:07In fact, it could mark the beginning of yet another competition.
00:10Today, I'll take a closer look at this issue. Let's dive right in.
00:12First, let's take a look at what was discussed in this US-China summit.
00:15The meeting lasted for about three and a half hours.
00:18Summit divided into a small group meeting and an expanded meeting
00:20was held entirely behind closed doors
00:22except for photo opportunities allowed for press photographers at the beginning.
00:25Specific outcomes of the meeting have not yet been announced.
00:28First, President Xi Jinping emphasized US-China cooperation,
00:31stating that the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation
00:33and making America great again are compatible.
00:35In other words, he made remarks suggesting that the Chinese Communist Party and MAGA can go hand in hand.
00:40He also made remarks to the effect that the two sides could help each other succeed.
00:43At the same time, he emphasized the need to build a stable relationship,
00:46suggesting that bilateral ties shouldn't be completely dominated by competition.
00:50In particular, President Xi pointed to AI as a key area the two countries could address together.
00:54Assessing that both China and the US are AI powerhouses,
00:57he expressed that the two nations need to expand dialogue and cooperation.
01:01So it seems he left the door open for cooperation in some areas,
01:04such as AI safety, and President Trump also responded favorably.
01:07President Trump remarked that relations with China have never been better.
01:10This state visit to the US by President Xi Jinping is the first in 11 years since 2015.
01:15On September 23, President Trump went all the way to the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland
01:20to welcome President Xi Jinping.
01:21According to US Diplomatic Protocol, when a foreign head of state visits,
01:24it is customary for the Vice President, Secretary of State, or Chief of Protocol
01:28to meet them at the airport,
01:29while the President typically greets the guests for the first time
01:31at the official White House welcoming ceremony.
01:33President Trump went all the way to the airport to greet President Xi Jinping.
01:37A US President meeting a foreign leader at the airport
01:39had not occurred since President John F. Kennedy in 1962,
01:42but for President Trump, this is already the second time.
01:44The first was Russian President Putin,
01:46and the next was President Xi Jinping, whom he met at the airport.
01:49He truly gave them an exceptionally warm welcome.
01:51To this, President Xi Jinping even made a somewhat chilling remark.
01:54At the White House welcoming ceremony,
01:55President Xi Jinping brought up the Thucydides Trap,
01:58stating that it should not be a wrestling match where one wins and the other loses,
02:00but a race in which the two sides strive to keep up with each other.
02:03It is worth taking a look at this Thucydides Trap.
02:05It is a very famous concept that a rising power
02:07and an established hegemon will ultimately clash.
02:10In other words, it refers to an unavoidable dilemma of conflict,
02:12where the rise of a new great power instills fear and anxiety in the existing hegemon,
02:16ultimately driving them toward war.
02:18According to American political scientist Graham Allison's analysis,
02:21out of 16 cases of hegemonic transition in history,
02:2412 actually led to war.
02:26Yet President Xi Jinping suddenly brought that up.
02:29Of course, there were also economic agreements.
02:31In the economic realm,
02:32the two nations agreed to extend the trade truce
02:34they had established last year by two months.
02:36They agreed to extend the Busan Agreement,
02:38which was scheduled to end on November 10th until January 10th of next year.
02:41Accordingly, the trade truce is expected to hold until next year.
02:43Of course, whether a final agreement will be reached remains to be seen.
02:46U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said the day before the talks
02:49that China was lagging behind on its target to purchase $17 billion a year
02:52in American agricultural products other than soybeans, as promised in May.
02:56U.S. officials also stated that the rare earth supply promised by China
02:58fell short of expectations.
03:00Scott Kennedy, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
03:03assessed right after the announcement of the truce extension
03:05that the U.S. also appeared unsatisfied with China's offer
03:08and intended to keep up the pressure.
03:09With the G20 summit coming up in December,
03:11I think they might discuss it again then.
03:13China has also exerted even greater pressure on the U.S.
03:15President Xi Jinping even demanded that the U.S. change the phrasing of its Taiwan policy,
03:19which it has maintained for 47 years, through the talks.
03:22President Xi Jinping stated that he hoped the U.S. would maintain the correct stance
03:25of opposing Taiwan independence and handle the Taiwan issue with prudence.
03:28Since establishing diplomatic relations with China in 1979,
03:31the U.S. has only stated that it does not support Taiwan independence.
03:34It has never stated that it opposes it,
03:36but China demanded that they change it to oppose.
03:37This is the first time President Xi Jinping has publicly demanded
03:41President Trump change this stance.
03:42Meanwhile, during this U.S.-China summit,
03:44there was also a development that would be quite concerning for Japan.
03:48What they did was make the history of the U.S. and China fighting together
03:51against Japan during World War II part of the summit's official message.
03:55President Xi Jinping emphasized in his state banquet speech
03:58that over 80 years ago, China and the United States
04:00stood shoulder to shoulder against Japanese militarist aggression.
04:03He went on to say that the cooperation back then was an important historical foundation
04:06for bilateral relations,
04:08stressing that a friendship forged in blood and fire must continue into the future.
04:11For China, this was essentially using the history of war with Japan
04:14to explain its relationship with the United States.
04:16What is striking this time, however, is that even President Trump,
04:20the President of the United States, directly expressed a similar view of history.
04:24While welcoming President Xi Jinping,
04:26President Trump referred to China as an ally during World War II.
04:29He also highlighted the past cooperation between the U.S. and China against a common enemy,
04:33specifically mentioning the Flying Tigers,
04:35the American volunteer air group that fought the Japanese forces in China back then.
04:39President Trump stated that,
04:40in the pursuit of common interest,
04:42the American and Chinese people were connected across differences,
04:45and the two nations even became allies during World War II.
04:48The fact that the U.S. President brought the history of fighting Japan to the forefront
04:51when describing relations with China drew significant attention in Japan as well.
04:56In fact, Japanese media reported that they are paying close attention
04:59to how these remarks will impact U.S.-Japan relations.
05:02This is also why Japan might feel uncomfortable.
05:04Japan is currently strengthening security cooperation with the U.S.
05:07and largely keeping in step with America's strategy regarding China.
05:10Yet, the U.S. President directly emphasized to the Chinese leader
05:13the history of the U.S. and China fighting together against Japan in the past.
05:17Of course, this alone doesn't necessarily mean the U.S. intends to weaken its ties with Japan.
05:21However, from Japan's perspective, it's a reminder that the U.S. and China can still cooperate
05:25on economic and security issues whenever necessary.
05:28In particular, Japan has long had conflicts with China over historical issues.
05:32In that context, the fact that the leaders of the U.S. and China
05:35invoke the same historical episode and exchange friendly messages
05:38could also be a burden for Japanese diplomacy.
05:41While it remains to be seen whether these remarks will lead to actual policy shifts,
05:44for Japan at least, it served as another clear reminder of the reality
05:47that the U.S. and China can draw closer whenever their mutual interests align.
05:50However, there is one aspect here that we need to look at objectively.
05:54On the surface, this U.S.-China summit appeared quite lavish to outsiders.
05:57It was President Xi Jinping's state visit, personally hosted by President Trump,
06:00featuring an official welcoming ceremony and a state dinner.
06:03Both leaders also exchanged quite positive messages with each other.
06:07However, we need to distinguish the atmosphere displayed during diplomatic events
06:10from the actual results produced at the negotiating table.
06:12In fact, the most distinct economic outcome produced by both countries at this summit
06:16was merely extending the existing trade truce by two months.
06:18While it does mean they bought some time to avoid immediate additional clashes,
06:21it does not mean that the U.S. and China have agreed on a new trade order
06:24that can be sustained over the long term.
06:26Issues where both countries continue to clash, such as tariffs,
06:29China's purchase of U.S. agricultural products, rare earth supply, and high-tech regulations
06:32have been pushed to the next round of negotiations.
06:35Reach has also analyzed that this extension is aimed at buying time for the next negotiations,
06:40rather than resolving the core issues.
06:42It's the same in the AI sector.
06:43While both countries confirm the possibility of expanding dialogue on AI safety,
06:47the underlying dynamic of the U.S. and China competing for dominance in AI technology hasn't changed at all.
06:52The U.S. is trying to restrict China's access to advanced technology,
06:55while China is expanding its own AI and high-tech industry capabilities.
06:59Therefore, just because the possibility of AI cooperation was mentioned in this summit,
07:02it's hard to say that their tech competition has eased.
07:05The same goes for the Taiwan issue.
07:07China demanded that the U.S. state its opposition to Taiwanese independence even more clearly,
07:11but it hasn't been confirmed whether the U.S. accepted China's demand as is.
07:15The fact remains, even in this summit, that the two leaders have differing interests
07:19when it comes to the Taiwan issue.
07:21So rather than producing one massive agreement,
07:23the most significant outcome of this summit is that the U.S. and China managed to maintain an environment
07:27where they can keep talking, even while harboring issues that could spark an immediate conflict.
07:31The AP also reported an analysis stating that, rather than achieving a major breakthrough,
07:35the significance of this visit lies in preventing further deterioration of bilateral ties
07:38and keeping the framework for dialogue intact.
07:40If you only look at the lavish welcoming ceremonies and the friendly remarks between the two leaders,
07:44it might seem like U.S.-China relations have grown significantly closer.
07:47However, looking at the actual negotiation outcomes one by one,
07:50there are still far more issues left to be discussed than problems that were actually solved.
07:53Rather than signalling an end to the U.S.-China conflict,
07:55this summit seems more accurately viewed as a meeting where both nations maintain room for negotiation
07:59to avoid direct clashes while continuing their rivalry.
08:01The key takeaway here is that the U.S. and China continuing their dialogue
08:05does not mean their competition has vanished.
08:07Rather, this summit can be seen as reaffirming the minimal negotiation space needed to avoid direct conflict.
08:13They bought time on trade, opened the door to dialogue on AI,
08:17and reaffirmed their respective stances on Taiwan.
08:19Therefore, the significance of this summit lies not in ending the conflict,
08:23but in confirming how both nations will manage their relationship as the conflict persists.
08:29श.
08:29एथ.
08:30तर्सावस.
