00:00What would happen if America did go through with a diesel export ban?
00:05Good morning, Jonathan.
00:07So prices for diesel abroad would skyrocket.
00:13And since the northeast of the United States and the west coast of the United States
00:18priced their diesel off of imports, coastal prices would likely rise, not fall.
00:24You would have an abrupt collapse in prices in Texas, Louisiana, maybe the upper Midwest.
00:32You'd have to clear 3 million barrels a day if it's all products, you know, 1.8 or 1.6
00:36of diesel.
00:37And for a while, you would see, while measured in weeks, you would see a collapse.
00:44But then refiners would reduce runs and prices would rise again.
00:49So you would get a short-term abrupt collapse in pump prices for diesel in Texas, Louisiana,
00:58sort of the mid-continent area.
00:59On the coasts, I don't think they fall much.
01:01They probably go higher.
01:02And the U.S. would shatter its reputation as a safe place to invest for a generation.
01:08But, Bob, we are under two months away from the midterm elections.
01:12It sounds like potentially this is on the table for the president of the United States,
01:16especially when you have Senator John Thune saying he's open to it.
01:21Right, Anne-Marie.
01:22Well, RapidAn has had a 35 percent probability on export restrictions since April.
01:28We've been focused on this.
01:29This has been debated.
01:30It was actively debated when the war first started, went into a bit of a lull during the summer, and
01:36it is back.
01:37I don't know of an economist inside the administration, inside the White House, or a policy advisor who thinks banning
01:45exports of diesel or gasoline would be a good idea.
01:49The risk is the president, in desperation, may choose it to get that short-term few weeks of a lower
01:57pump price.
01:58Maybe it moves the Texas Senate race.
02:00Maybe it moves Michigan.
02:01Again, that is the risk.
02:03But I don't know of an economist inside the administration, outside the administration, who thinks it would be a good
02:09idea.
02:10But it is a solid 35 percent with upside risk.
02:14And if we can't sort of get a cap in prices here in the next few weeks, I think the
02:21risk is that that 35 percent will go higher.
02:23And if we can't get a cap in prices here in the next few weeks, we're going to get a
02:23cap in prices here in the next few weeks.
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