- 46 minutes ago
بوتين لا يوقف الحرب لأن التوقف نفسه قد يكون أخطر على نظامه من الاستمرار. هذا التحليل السياسي العميق يشرح لماذا تبدو المفاوضات مستحيلة الآن، وكيف يرى الكرملين أن روسيا ما زالت تكسب، حتى مع الخسائر والعزلة وتآكل الموارد.
تستند إلفيرا باري إلى منطق السلطة داخل موسكو: الخوف من المحاسبة، فقاعة المعلومات، صمت النخب، والدعاية التي حوّلت الحرب إلى اختبار بقاء. كما تشرح لماذا دعم كثير من الروس العاديين الغزو في بدايته، ولماذا بدأت التعبئة والقصف والانقطاع اليومي يبدّلان المزاج العام ببطء.
النتيجة ليست قصة استراتيجية عسكرية بقدر ما هي دراسة في السياسة الاستبدادية، الحرب في أوكرانيا، والعقلية التي تجعل السلام أكثر تهديدًا من الهزيمة. إذا كنت تبحث عن تحليل روسيا، بوتين، الكرملين، الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية، والمفاوضات المستحيلة، فهذه قراءة/استماع مناسب لفهم خلفيات الصراع والسلطة والدعاية. مناسب أيضًا لمن يهتمون بـRussia analysis، Putin explained، Ukraine war commentary، وpolitical psychology of the Kremlin.
تستند إلفيرا باري إلى منطق السلطة داخل موسكو: الخوف من المحاسبة، فقاعة المعلومات، صمت النخب، والدعاية التي حوّلت الحرب إلى اختبار بقاء. كما تشرح لماذا دعم كثير من الروس العاديين الغزو في بدايته، ولماذا بدأت التعبئة والقصف والانقطاع اليومي يبدّلان المزاج العام ببطء.
النتيجة ليست قصة استراتيجية عسكرية بقدر ما هي دراسة في السياسة الاستبدادية، الحرب في أوكرانيا، والعقلية التي تجعل السلام أكثر تهديدًا من الهزيمة. إذا كنت تبحث عن تحليل روسيا، بوتين، الكرملين، الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية، والمفاوضات المستحيلة، فهذه قراءة/استماع مناسب لفهم خلفيات الصراع والسلطة والدعاية. مناسب أيضًا لمن يهتمون بـRussia analysis، Putin explained، Ukraine war commentary، وpolitical psychology of the Kremlin.
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LearningTranscript
00:00Why does Russia keep fighting a war it cannot afford, can't win quickly and cannot seem to
00:07step away from? People ask me this almost every week. And the real answer has nothing to do with
00:15military strategy. It has everything to do with the fear of losing power.
00:21I am Elvira Barry, a writer born in the Soviet Union, and today we are going to
00:27peel back the layers of Russia's political mind. Not the propaganda story, but the inner logic of a
00:35system that is more afraid of peace than of defeat. Here's where we are going. Why negotiations are
00:45impossible right now for both sides. What the Kremlin truly wants and why conquering Ukraine is
00:52not actually the point. Why ordinary Russians once cheered this war and why that support is quietly
01:00eroding. Why Russia's elites stay silent, even as the system eats their future. If independent analysis
01:09matters to you, it would mean a lot if you liked this video, shared it with someone curious about
01:17Russia or subscribe so you don't miss the next chapters. And if you'd like to go one step further,
01:26you can join the think tank or support via Superfinks or PayPal. That's what keeps this work possible.
01:33Let's begin. Why negotiations are impossible right now?
01:40A war can end in only two ways. Either one side prevails or both sides reach the grim realization that
01:49further fighting won't bring them anything new and they finally sit down at the negotiating table.
01:56The war in Ukraine clearly belongs to the second category. So why can Putin just stop? Why drag this
02:05out when every extra week makes Russia weaker, poorer and more isolated? Because, in the Kremlin's mind,
02:15exactly the same question applies to Ukraine. From Putin's perspective, the logic goes like this.
02:22Fighting makes Ukraine even weaker than Russia. So why doesn't Zelensky stop? Doesn't he see the cost?
02:32Negotiations start only when at least one side decides that nothing more can be gained on the
02:38battlefield, that the limits have been reached. That is how Germany signed their armistice in World War I.
02:46But in this war, neither Russia nor Ukraine believes those limits have arrived and for completely different
02:54reasons. From inside Putin's bubble, Russia is winning. Not rapidly, not gloriously, but steadily.
03:03And if you believe you are gaining ground, why stop? There is also a deeper, darker calculation.
03:12What Russia has already captured is too little to justify the staggering losses. So many men killed,
03:19so much money was literally burned in the fire of war. How do you explain all of this to your
03:27own elites
03:28if the result is just a handful of ruined villages? In the Kremlin's mind, the only way to justify the
03:35enormous losses is to push harder and seize a bigger price, something Putin can present to his people
03:43and to the world as proof that the sacrifice was worth it. If Russia bombs enough Ukrainian apartment
03:50blocks, if it keeps dismantling critical infrastructure then, so the thinking goes,
03:57Ukraine will eventually break and accept Moscow's terms. This is the fantasy they continue to chase.
04:04Ukraine views negotiations from the opposite angle, with the fear that any peace talks could be a trap that
04:11leaves the country in a worse position than before. Ukrainian officials understand that a pause in
04:18fighting would give Russia time to regroup, rebuild, and return with even stronger demands.
04:25They know that Ukraine cannot, right now, liberate every occupied territory and restore the 1991 borders.
04:33But they are far more afraid of surrendering more than they must. Because any concession tells the Kremlin,
04:44this method works. You can attack your neighbor, kill thousands, destroy cities and still walk away with
04:52something. That is an invitation for Putin or someone like him to repeat the whole thing in 5 or 10
05:00years.
05:01And there is also the moral side of this war that Western commentators often overlook. Negotiations
05:09aren't just about land. They are about people. On the occupied territories, the reality is horrific. Ukrainian
05:17men are kidnapped, drafted, and forced to fight against their own country. Many have already died.
05:23In Donetsk, basic life is collapsing. Electricity fails, water disappears, and sewage systems stop
05:32working. Homes are seized, declared abandoned, nationalized, and handed out as rewards to officials
05:40and officers. How can a government negotiate away those people? How can it sign a document knowing that more
05:48Ukrainians will be handed over to this fate? For Kyiv, negotiating too early is not only risky.
05:57It feels like a betrayal of the very people they are trying to protect. Both sides have reasons that make
06:05sense inside their own worldview. And both sides could be disastrously wrong. Russia may not be
06:14advancing nearly as successful as Putin believes. Its resources may be running out faster than the
06:21Rosy reports suggest. The domestic situation may be far more fragile than what reaches his task.
06:28Ukraine too may face exhaustion, shortages, or a sudden collapse of part of the front line. There is only
06:35one thing that can change this deadlock. A shift inside the minds of those who make the decisions. To
06:43understand when or if that shift might happen, we have to examine the worldview that shapes Putin's
06:51decisions. What the Kremlin truly wants. When people ask what is Putin's goal in this war, they expect
07:01something strategic, something rational. Territory, resources, a buffer zone, security guarantees. I see
07:09this all the time on YouTube. Dozens of English-speaking pandits explaining Russian strategy as if it were
07:16crafted by someone who graduated from Harvard, studied geopolitics, and took military inspiration from
07:23Scipio Africanus to the present day. Let me be very clear. These people have no idea how the Kremlin thinks.
07:32Not because they lack intelligence, but because they imagine the Kremlin as a Western institution.
07:40It is not. It has never been. The Russian leadership did not build a strategy class.
07:48They built a survival machine. And the point of that machine is not military excellence, not smart
07:55resource management. The point is to stay in power at any cost. By 2019, the Russian regime had a problem
08:04so serious it was almost taboo to say it aloud. It was aging. Putin was aging, his inner circle was
08:13aging,
08:13and the system they built had no safe mechanism for transferring power. If he stepped aside, everything
08:22could collapse. His family could face danger, his loyal elites could be purged, the wealth and privileges
08:30they amassed could be seized. And he himself could end up in front of a criminal court. So, remaining in
08:39power
08:39was not a fantasy of an ambitious man. It was the only path to safety. In any autocracy, power concentrates
08:49in one person only when everyone around him believes their own future depends on him staying in charge.
08:56When that belief fades, the magic of authority fades with it. In 2019, that belief was fading fast,
09:06and Putin believed he had to do something about it before it's too late. That is when he began planning
09:13his war against Ukraine. In his worldview, Ukraine was stepping outside its assigned role. It behaved
09:21not according to the unwritten rules of the post-Soviet neighborhood. It dared to choose its own future.
09:29It flirted with the West. Its oligarchs manipulated gas prices and played both sides. To a ruler who sees
09:39himself as an alpha male in a violent hierarchy, this was insubordination. And in that worldview,
09:49if the author does not demonstrate strength, he loses respect. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 restored
09:57that sense of respect for a while. Putin's approval ratings soared and the public enjoyed an emotional
10:05high of historic greatness. But by 2019, the effect had faded. The pandemic arrived. Daily life became
10:17stressful and people grew irritable and disillusioned once again. The regime needed a new miracle.
10:26And according to the reports landing on Putin's desk, Ukraine was the perfect target. We corrupt,
10:33divided, infiltrated from top to bottom by Russian agents and allegedly ready to collapse in a matter of
10:41days. It was supposed to be Crimea 2.0. Only bigger, louder, and more glorious.
10:50People often ask, how could Putin be so wrong? How could he believe something so absurd?
10:56The answer is brutally simple. Because in the Kremlin, no one is rewarded for telling the truth.
11:03Modern Russia is run by elderly men who live inside their own information bubble. A bubble created by
11:09the people whose careers depend on keeping the boss happy. Every one of these men sits atop a network of
11:17loyalists whose promotions depend on the leader's mood. And his mood depends entirely on the news he receives.
11:26If everything is going wrong, you don't say, sir, we lost a thousand men in capture-free ruined houses.
11:33You say, today? On the day of national unity, our heroic forces delivered a victory. The Russian flag now
11:43flies over the liberated settlement of большие кирпичи. He does not know where that is. He does not care.
11:51He only cares that the news feels uplifting. This system works exactly like a casino. The player always
12:00believes that the next move will bring the jackpot. The generals, the FSB, their ministers,
12:07they are the casino floor managers paid to keep him believing. Because as long as he believes in an
12:15eventual victory, they keep their budgets, their contracts, and their places on the social ladder,
12:21along with all the privileges that matter so much in this climate of intrigue and constant competition
12:28for resources. So, when you live in a world where every report tells you you are advancing, gaining,
12:35progressing, why would you stop? In Putin's mind, the war is not a mistake. It is the only available
12:43strategy for political survival. Stopping is more dangerous than continuing. Peace is more threatening
12:50than war. But doesn't he feel sorry for his own countrymen who are dying by the thousands? Doesn't
12:59he understand that this war is making life in Russia dramatically worse? No. In his mind,
13:06the public supports him. That's what every report on his desk insists. And as for those who die,
13:14they are not considered valuable. Their attitude is simple and cruel. They would have died anyway from
13:24alcohol, from accidents, from poverty. These men, in the eyes of the system, never had much of a life
13:31to begin with. So, why not let them contribute to Russia's glory and earn some money along the way?
13:38Why ordinary Russians supported the war? But what about ordinary Russians? Don't they want the
13:47war to end? Can they say anything about it? Can they demand peace the way Americans once demanded an
13:55end to the war in Vietnam? In the first months of the full-scale invasion, Russian society behaved in a
14:03way that seemed almost surreal. Millions of people supported a catastrophe that brought them no
14:11personal benefit. The reason for this becomes clear only if we understand one thing. For most Russians,
14:19the war was not real yet. It existed as a television spectacle, a patriotic show that demanded nothing,
14:28cost nothing, and offered a powerful sense of emotional belonging. Belonging is one of the most
14:36fundamental human instincts. When your own life feels small, insecure, or tightly controlled,
14:45you instinctively seek something larger to attach yourself to, something that softens the feeling of
14:52personal insignificance. There's a Russian saying – этот человек ничего слаще морковки не пробовал.
14:59Someone who has never tasted anything sweeter than a carrot. People like that are easy to manipulate.
15:08You can demand almost anything from them and pay only in slogans and patriotic cliches. An excellent
15:16bargain for the elites, isn't it? What keeps ordinary people loyal to the regime is the illusion that the
15:24elites and the common folk form one noble unified nation, sharing the same goals, the same values, the same
15:33destiny. That is the central purpose of patriotic propaganda. But admission into this imagined club
15:42comes with a price. You must sacrifice something. Your health, your future, perhaps even your child's life.
15:51Empires and authoritarian systems depend on psychological games like this. They offer a grand
15:57narrative that makes people believe their small, restricted lives gain meaning when attached to a great
16:04power. And as long as this illusion halts, the system survives. This is why the annexation of
16:11Crimea in 2014 produced such a massive emotional high. Russians felt suddenly elevated. Look, we matter again.
16:21Our country is powerful. We are winning. When the 2022 invasion began, many expected a repeat,
16:29a quick triumph, a historic correction, another injection of imperial pride. And for several months,
16:36the war truly did feel like a televised drama. People discussed it, argued about it, followed it the way they
16:44would follow a sport tournament or a soap opera. It remained distant and abstract. That illusion ended in
16:53September 2022, when the Kremlin announced mobilization. Even though it lasted only briefly, its psychological
17:01impact was enormous. For the first time, the war forced itself into people's kitchens. It reached their husbands,
17:10sons, and brothers. Panic spread so quickly that the authorities shut down the mobilization almost as soon as it began.
17:19But the damage was done. Fear had replaced excitement. Yet the Kremlin could not stop the war.
17:27They had already knocked over the train. Tomorrow from an old Russian joke about a wolf and a crow on
17:35an airplane.
17:36The crow proudly knocks over the stewardess's tree just to show off. The wolf copies him and both get thrown
17:45out of the plane. As they fall, the crow asks, Wolf, can you fly? He answers, No. Then why were
17:54you showing off?
17:55This is Putin's dilemma. After the retreat from Kyiv, stopping the war would mean admitting weakness.
18:03Continuing it is irrational, but stopping it is dangerous. In an authoritarian system,
18:10the appearance of strength often matters more than actual strategic outcomes. You have to pretend you can fly.
18:19Unable to rely on mass mobilization, the Kremlin turned to those who were willing to fight for money.
18:26That desperate, the poor, the socially invisible. Marginalized men from impoverished regions.
18:33Prisoners offered freedom in exchange for survival. People whose deaths would not cause public outrage.
18:40From these losses alone, one could build an entire city. And in that city, the vast majority would be men
18:50the state never valued in the first place. Meanwhile, the elite lives in a parallel universe.
18:57Ordinary citizens face higher taxes, rising prices, failing infrastructure, blackouts, and the fear of
19:04their sons being drafted. But among the upper caste, life goes on with surprisingly few disruptions.
19:12They earned money on wartime contracts, expanded their influence, and continued to travel abroad
19:19when necessary. A recent case made headlines when a well-known pro-war actress was spotted vacationing in
19:27Amsterdam. For ordinary Russians, Europe is closed. For the elite, it simply requires some negotiations
19:36and maybe a private jet. This divide is visible everywhere. Visit the websites of elite Moscow schools.
19:45The war is barely mentioned. But in rural schools, the war is the main theme portrayed as destiny and duty.
19:54The message is clear. The children of the poor are cannon fodder. The children of the rich are the future
20:02ruling class.
20:03Still, war spreads like an infection. Even those who try to ignore it feel the symptoms.
20:11Drones buzzing overhead. Occasional explosions. Citywide blackouts. Regions where mobile internet is shut off entirely
20:20and familiar everyday conveniences collapsing. No taxi apps. No maps. Bank cards failing at the supermarket.
20:30Messengers blocked. And for families with sons of conscription age? A constant fear that the next military
20:38summons might be for them. Under such pressure, a dangerous question begins to surface.
20:46Why did we start this war if we achieved none of our goals? Russia wanted an empire. Obedience from Ukraine,
20:55fear from Europe, and respect from the United States. Instead, many now suspect that their leaders are
21:03wolves who don't know how to fly. And this is where repression becomes necessary. The Kremlin must prevent
21:11these questions from forming, let alone spreading. That is why repression has expanded far beyond their
21:19position. Even loyal bloggers can suddenly be labeled foreign agents. Even loyal businessmen and regional
21:28officials can be arrested. Fear must remain universal. Vulnerability must feel constant. Only then can the
21:38illusion of progress be maintained. This is why the war cannot end now. For the Kremlin, peace does not
21:46mean stability. Peace means accountability. And accountability is what the regime fears most.
21:54The silence of the elites
21:59So why are Russia's elites silent? After all, unlike the general population,
22:05they know exactly what is happening. For the last 25 years, the Kremlin has built an elite class that is
22:13either complicit in crimes or carefully selected for absolute spylessness. These are not independent
22:22actors. They are not professionals with transferable skills. They are people who owe their entire existence
22:30to one person and whose only real talent is managing corruption. The rational elite operates on the
22:39principle of vassalage. You do not rise by competence. You rise because you have the right patrons, the right
22:47family connections, and the right schemes to drain public budgets. And you must never, under any circumstances,
22:55shine brighter than the boss. You cannot be smarter than him, more popular than him, or more successful than
23:04him. To be any of these things is to invite your own destruction. This is the tragedy of the Russian
23:10ruling class. They cannot leave the sinking ship because they have no skills that would allow them to
23:18survive outside it. This is one of the themes of my upcoming novel, The Snow Queen's Spring. The main character,
23:26wildly successful by Russian standards, eventually realizes she is not an entrepreneur at all. She is a
23:33specialist in elaborate corruption. That is her craft. That is what she has spent her life perfecting. And outside the
23:42system, that craft is useless. Yes, she could flee to Argentina and live as a rancher on stolen money,
23:51but for someone who has been trained to dominate and win inside a rigid hierarchy, that is not a life.
23:59That is an exile. But anxiety has already spread through all layers of the elite. They see the collapse
24:07coming. They see the war dragging on. They see sanctions solidifying. They see the military failures and the
24:15economic rot. No one is truly loyal. Everyone is simply afraid. And the Kremlin knows this. It knows
24:25the system is cracking. Which is why it has begun creating new elites. By the way, if you want to
24:34follow
24:35the creation of my new novel, as it happens, with behind-the-scenes notes, unusual historical facts and
24:42even the songs I somehow ended up composing along the way, join my newsletter. It's where the whole creative
24:50world of my books comes to life. The link is in the description. When you combine all these spreads, the
24:57picture
24:57becomes crystal clear. Stopping the war would mean confronting questions that would destroy the regime.
25:05Where did we start? Why did we lose so many? Where did the money go? Who is responsible?
25:12Stopping would also force the elites to reconsider their loyalty. It would open space for blame, betrayal,
25:19and internal coups. It would expose the full scale of military failure and economic decline and it would
25:27show that the strongmen cannot deliver victory. For this system, peace is far more dangerous than war.
25:35That is why Putin cannot stop. Before we finish, I want to leave you with a question that cuts straight
25:43to
25:43the heart of this whole story. Given everything we've uncovered tonight – the fear, the lies,
25:50the internal rivalries, the obsession with survival – what do you think could be Putin's ultimate exit
25:58strategy? Not the one analysts talk about. Not the one propaganda suggests. The real one. Tell me in the
26:06comments. I read every single one and your insights often move this channel in directions I never expected.
26:14And if my work helps you understand this region a little better, if it gives you clarity in a world
26:22full of noise, then please consider supporting this channel. You can join the think tank, become part of
26:30the community that keeps this work alive. You can leave a super things or buy me a coffee or support
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26:37PayPal. Whatever is comfortable for you. And of course, like, share, and subscribe. Those small actions are
26:45what tell the algorithm that this conversation matters. Don't bury it.
26:51Thank you for watching, for thinking, and for caring. Because caring about the truth is already an act of
26:59resistance in a time of convenient lies. Take care of yourself wherever you are in the world.
27:22Thank you for listening.
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