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بوتين يبدو اليوم أكثر قلقًا من أي وقت مضى، والسبب هو ما جرى في فنزويلا: اعتقال مادورو وضربة أمريكية سريعة قلبت حسابات الكرملين. في هذا البث الطارئ، تتابع إلفيرا باري كيف قرأ الروس الخبر، من قنوات تيليجرام المؤيدة للحرب إلى الأوليغارشيين والدعاة المقربين من السلطة، وكيف تحولت فنزويلا إلى مرآة تكشف خوف موسكو الحقيقي.

تظهر ردود الفعل ثلاث أزمات في وقت واحد: الإحراج من مقارنة “العملية العسكرية الخاصة” الروسية بعملية أمريكية استغرقت ثلاثين دقيقة، والقلق من خسارة نفوذ النفط مع تشديد واشنطن قبضتها على الطاقة العالمية، والشك العميق بأن الحلفاء لن يهبوا لإنقاذ بوتين إذا بدأت المطاردة ضده. إنها قراءة سياسية حادة تجمع بين تحليل روسيا، الكرملين، فنزويلا، مادورو، والطاقة العالمية.

مناسبة لمن يتابع أخبار روسيا وأوكرانيا، وتحليلات الحرب الإعلامية، والسياسة الدولية، ونفوذ النفط والغاز، وصراع الكرملين مع الولايات المتحدة. كما أنها مفيدة للباحثين عن commentary on Putin, Russia Venezuela crisis, Kremlin panic, geopolitical analysis, and Russian propaganda reactions. هذا محتوى سياسي وتحليلي بصيغة سردية يربط بين فنزويلا، موسكو، والعالم الروسي الداخلي.

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Transcript
00:01Emergency broadcast today because something extraordinary has happened.
00:07The United States has struck Venezuela and arrested the dictator Maduro.
00:11My name is Elvira Barry. I am not broadcasting from my studio but from a tiny island at the edge
00:17of nowhere,
00:18so the sound quality will be awful.
00:21Still, I have to tell you how Russians reacted to what happened in Venezuela.
00:25Ivan Yakovina, Russian journalist who supports Ukraine.
00:29Trump carried out a special Venezuelan operation in 30 minutes.
00:34Well, the active phase at least.
00:37And Trump pulled it off.
00:39I think Putin is reacting very painfully because the special military operation is what he's been believing for the last
00:48four years.
00:49Trump showed how it's actually done.
00:52I have just been reading the channels on Telegram.
00:55They are practically losing rage and envy.
00:58They are intensely jealous of the Americans for pulling this operation off without losing a single person,
01:04while the Russian army has been bleeding for four years straight.
01:09This is a vivid, living demonstration that Vladimir Putin is an utterly inept military leader.
01:16incompetent, talentless, incapable of conducting or planning any serious operations.
01:22Simply put, Putin is in the wrong place.
01:26A bad commander and a bad president.
01:30Even if we set aside the moral aspect of invading another country, he just does not know how to do
01:36it.
01:37Alec Teripasca, one of the most prominent Putin-era oligarchs.
01:41If our American partners get their hands on Venezuela's oil fields, and they've already reached those of Guyana,
01:50they will control more than half of the world's oil reserves.
01:54And apparently, their plan is to make sure the price of our oil doesn't rise above $50 a barrel.
02:04Margarita Simonian, one of the chief propagandists, wrote briefly on Telegram.
02:10We are jealous.
02:12Igor Holmogorov, nationalist and politician.
02:16Now either Russia quickly takes out Zelensky, or we are really entering a season of Trump-sanctioned hunting for Putin.
02:25Dmitry Medvedev, former president of the Russian Federation.
02:31Maximum strengthening, guaranteeing that the country will be reliably protected.
02:36Only the nuclear arsenal, long-lived nuclear weapons.
02:42Nizegar, one of the largest pro-Kremlin bloggers for the thinking audience.
02:47The text is long, but extremely revealing.
02:50The US forced operation in Venezuela, which ended with the change of power and the detention of Nicolas Maduro,
02:58deals a serious blow to the Kremlin's reputation, given that Moscow is losing yet another significant ally in Latin America.
03:06First, the overthrow of the Maduro regime sharply reduces Moscow's room for maneuver in influencing the situation in Latin America.
03:16Venezuela was seen as one of the key strongholds of Russia's presence in the region and as support for Cuba
03:25and Nicaragua.
03:25The loss of this direction is perceived as a geopolitical defeat, the probability of which had already been assessed as
03:35high.
03:35It should also be noted that Venezuela was a full-fledged proxy of China, and Russia used Venezuela's potential as
03:44a center for capitalizing its investments.
03:46Second, Russia's oil and gas interests in Venezuela are now under question.
03:53US control over Venezuela's energy sector enhances Washington's ability to influence the global hydrocarbons market, creating a serious instrument of
04:03pressure, including in relations with Russia.
04:06After the loss of Syria, just a year later, the Russian elite is losing a second zone for capital investment
04:14in oil projects.
04:15A separate risk concerns the financial losses of Russian companies, investments of around $18 billion.
04:22Another risk lies in possible testimony by Maduro regarding Russian involvement in great money laundering schemes, including the participation of
04:33certain Russians in drug trafficking and arms sales.
04:37The informational and political effect of the U.S. operation also attracts serious attention.
04:43A fast and effective special operation without losses among American military personnel creates undesirable comparisons and projections regarding the effectiveness
04:54of the special military operation.
04:56This factor is seen as potentially problematic for the domestic agenda and public sentiment and will require active adjustment of
05:07the information field.
05:09At the intra-elite level, rising tension is expected.
05:14The change of power in Venezuela strengthens fears related to loyalty and possible betrayals within Putin's inner circle.
05:24This, in turn, may lead to harming hysteria, demonstrative loyalty and mutual suspicion among elites, with long-term consequences for
05:36the governance system.
05:39Finally, yet another refusal to support a strategic ally, following the cases of Armenia, Iran and Syria, confirms Moscow's lack
05:49of real capacity to actively help its allies.
05:52This will lead to a narrowing of alliance ties and Russia's displacement to the periphery of Chinese interests.
06:01The Kremlin finds itself tightly squeezed in geopolitical vice grips.
06:08As you see, they understand perfectly well.
06:13And they also understand something else.
06:17If it comes to that, no one will stand up for Putin.
06:22That's why they are afraid.
06:24That really does seem to be a choic of central partido.
06:24But it's to be successful at looking at the level of technology.
06:24Let's 그러면서, at the right兹 kannst-climNE forward...
06:24It'll be a great deal.
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