00:00To analyze the big picture amid these parliamentary elections we are joined by
00:03Dr. Yvonne Tellez, she is an expert in international law. Welcome Yvonne from
00:09the South. Our first question will be, these are the first state doom elections
00:13since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine. What
00:17stands out to the most to you for this election and what aspects do you think
00:23are particularly important for understanding Russia's current political
00:27situation? I appreciate the invitation and well regarding the questions this
00:38parliamentary elections matters internationally not because surprise
00:47transfer of power is expected but as you said so those are these are the first
00:54parliamentary elections since Russia launched its its scale invasion of
00:59Ukraine in 2022 and not talking about the reasons of these actions but because of
01:08what these elections represent is because the Kremlin right now will use this
01:14domestic electoral process to demonstrate political continuity, the mobilization
01:24of society and the support of its policy. So what we see here is that a connection
01:32between domestic legitimacy with international power projection. I think that some of the of the of the
01:42relevant issues and what we have to pay attention here is because it's more than what the election
01:52shows or who's likely to win internally but what the election is intended to demonstrate. Being that this
02:01the Kremlin will will present this not like an evidence of national unity institutional
02:12continuity as I said before and this public support. So I think that a predictable result does not make the
02:24election irrelevant. I think that a highly controlled electoral system and political system
02:31this elections within a system of of of this highly controlled political system those electional
02:41processes perform several functions beyond just choosing the leaders or people. They measure the state's capacity to mobilize voters. They
02:54measure how the state manages dissent, how the state renews the governing
03:01elites, and they tend to project an image of legitimacy. So what this turn out the elections turn out will
03:13show or at least will they will tell us more about the resilience of Putin system that more than just
03:21a genuine domestic political competition.
03:26Yvonne, the foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said that these elections are taking place against a backdrop of a broader
03:35confrontation in which the West is waging a war against Russia. How do you interpret that statement and to what
03:42extent could political economic and military pressure from the West influence Russian borders and the electoral landscape?
03:51Okay, that is a reality that we have to look at because, I mean, in a way, what we know
04:02is that from an IR perspective, I'm talking about international relations perspective, this election consolidates state's powers.
04:13So, it helps this leadership and Russia's leadership right now. It helps to mobilize resources, to preserve the cohesion, and
04:28to demonstrate that external pressure has not weakened the regime.
04:34So, the central questions here are therefore, I think, power, this strategic endurance, and how this Russia's ability will continue
04:48or not to compete with NATO and to, and Western states.
04:53So, I think that in that sense, we have to also take a look at what these elections mean for
05:05Russia's allies and for Russia's partners.
05:07For example, for example, for the closest partners, we will see that continuity will be like the most likely consequence
05:16over here, because what this will mean is that Putin retains the control of the Russian state and can sustain
05:25a long-term strategic commitment, even if those interfere with the Western interest.
05:32Also, for example, for example, in that sense, China will try to accommodate this relationship, according to its economic and
05:51geopolitical interests, knowing that the regime continues.
05:55But I think that it also shows how Russia will continue, for example, to relate with global South countries, because
06:05if Russia shows that it remains politically stable, then it will mean that internationally, it is not only connected, but
06:18capable of resisting this Western pressure.
06:22So, I think that these lines of this foreign minister go aligned with this perspective, because, for example, in a
06:36way, this will be a form to endorse Russia's activity and Russia's political response or political proposals,
06:47even if these, in a way, do not align with this Western pressure that Russia has been facing, and mainly
07:00after what happened with Ukraine.
07:04Yvonne, Yvonne, these are also the first state Duma elections in which residents of the four regions of the Donbass
07:14are participating as Russian citizens.
07:17How could their participation affect the electoral results and the composition of the Duma?
07:23Okay.
07:24Okay.
07:24Well, we have to, from an international law perspective, I think there are three dimensions over here.
07:31Well, we have, for example, international human rights law regarding the elections based on universal and equal suffrage.
07:42We have also the question of voting here regarding these Ukrainian territories, this region in the Donbass, because under, and
07:54we have to distinguish between the political issues and the legal issues over here.
08:00Under international law, this military occupation of Ukraine, because this has not been solved legally, this does not transfer this
08:12sovereignty to the occupying power.
08:15So, in a way, organizing elections in those territories cannot lawfully change their status or create a valid basis for
08:28Russian sovereignty.
08:30So, regarding these issues, when we're talking about the doctrine of international law, then some principles come along over here.
08:42For example, this territorial integrity principle, the use of force and the temporary character of the occupation.
08:53So, in that sense, regarding these issues, when we're talking about legal issues, this outcome may definitely refrain or not
09:04what Russia has been doing in Ukraine since 2022.
09:10That means that we know that this electoral process, as we said before, are in a way a referendum to
09:18validate Putin's policy and basically, and in a very strong way, what Putin has been doing in the Ukrainian territory.
09:27So, that means that it will come as a referendum, so that means that it will come as a referendum
09:31and it will show this support or not of what Russia has been understating over here.
09:39What we know here also is that Donbass has a very wide range of Russian population, so what we can
09:50expect over here is a support, I think, between a medium and a strong support over the returning of this
10:02elite territory to the Russian state.
10:05But I think those are just, I think, hypothesis, but we can expect that regarding the population that is over
10:13there voting.
10:14But what I stated before regarding international law issues has to be present as well, because that has a very
10:22direct connection with the international validity and legitimacy that these elections will hold toward the international community and toward the
10:36West specifically.
10:39Final question.
10:41If we look beyond the headlines about which parties gain or lose seats, what do you think will ultimately be
10:48the most important takeaway from these elections for understanding where Russia is heading over the next several years?
10:55Okay, well, I think that the most relevant factors is what these elections will mean for Vladimir Putin.
11:05Because what we are expecting is that a large united Russia majority will strengthen his institution and his proposals, I
11:21mean, will strengthen Putin both institutionally and symbolically.
11:26Because institutionally, it will preserve a parliament that's capable of passing legislation and passing budgets without significant resistance.
11:38Symbolically, because what the Kremlin will use is this results to claim that the population supports and continues to support
11:49the political system and the war with Ukraine, despite economic difficulties, the Ukrainian attacks, and Russia's and the international sanctions
12:02that Russia faces.
12:03So, even if the United Russia loses a bit, a little bit of the majority, it will also preserve an
12:17important degree of constitutional control.
12:20So, in this way, Putin's practical control will remain largely unchanged because this opposition will lose against this Kremlin power.
12:38So, I think that the most revealing indicators here will be the fact that institutionally and symbolically, I think Putin
12:52will remain very strong and can turn out as a stronger force than before.
13:02And I think that that is a very strong message to what the international community has been expecting regarding how
13:11Putin loses its legitimacy within the state.
13:15So, I think that this is a very geopolitical, critical moment because it's not just a domestic elections.
13:27I think what this remains, this means, I'm sorry, internationally, is that in a way, Kremlin will have transformed a
13:36domestic vote into a demonstration of geopolitical endurance.
13:40I think that, as you said, disregarding the result will not change who governs Russia, but it will reinforce the
13:51institutions, their resources, and the narratives true with Russia conducts the war and confronts the West.
14:01Thank you, Yvonne, for your insights and your time with us.
14:05We will keep you informed about the Russian elections in a coming new free in the state to witness to
14:12the English.
14:12We now continue with the Middle East.
14:14We will keep you informed about the Russian elections in a coming new free in the state of the United
14:15States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United
14:15States.
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