00:00Oil prices are too high. They are high in Korea, but they are even higher in places like the U
00:03.S. and the U.K.
00:04Because of this, all kinds of protests are continuing all around the world.
00:07People have started pouring out into the streets.
00:09Today, let's take a proper look at this issue. Let's get right into it.
00:12Protests are constantly breaking out all over the world right now.
00:14First, let's take a look at the countries where protests are happening.
00:17To start with, there's Syria.
00:19Syria has now raised its fuel prices.
00:21The Syrian government announced that it would temporarily raise the prices of petroleum products, including diesel, by up to 40%.
00:26Within hours of this announcement, citizens outraged by this policy began pouring into the streets,
00:30and the largest protests since the fall of the al-Assad regime are taking place.
00:34Syrian protesters took to the streets, occupying roads, burning tires, and pushing back aggressively.
00:39A similar phenomenon also occurred in Guatemala.
00:42As oil prices soared so high, transport workers began staging protests,
00:45demanding fundamental oil price measures that go beyond stopgap fixes like price caps or subsidies.
00:50In the capital, Guatemala City, protesters even set vehicles on fire
00:54and shouted that the government and the wealthy should be torn apart and killed.
00:57They voiced their anger forcefully.
00:59Protests broke out in Portugal as well.
01:01With diesel prices hitting an all-time high, car-honking protests erupted across the country.
01:05In the capital, Lisbon, hundreds of vehicles immediately gathered,
01:08flying the Portuguese flag and honking their horns to protest the rising oil prices.
01:13Protesters also held up various placards to voice their complaints against the government
01:17and took a hard-line stance by blocking roads leading to oil refineries.
01:20Protests broke out in Asia as well.
01:22In Indonesia, cooking gas shortages and frequent blackouts continue.
01:26The gasoline rationing system introduced by the government is only adding to the chaos.
01:30As the Indonesian government decided to ration gasoline,
01:32outraged citizens poured into the streets, with taxi drivers leading the protests.
01:36And we also saw student-led protests erupting once again.
01:39The Philippines is in the same boat.
01:41In the Philippines, bus and taxi drivers took to the streets to protest surging fuel prices,
01:46furious that even working 18 hours a day barely covers their cost of living.
01:50The government promised an $80 subsidy for public transport drivers, but many argue it's not enough.
01:55To make matters worse, many Filipino fishermen are giving up on setting sail altogether because fuel has gotten so expensive.
02:01They simply couldn't afford the fuel, leaving them with no choice but to abandon their trips out to sea.
02:05Bangladesh is already struggling to generate electricity due to LNG shortages,
02:09facing blackouts lasting four to five hours every day.
02:12In addition, their backbone garment industry has seen a wave of temporary shutdowns.
02:15Developed nations are no exception.
02:18In France, fishermen from coastal cities gathered to protest against fuel prices and government policies,
02:22even clashing violently with police.
02:24As you can see, as oil prices began surging past $100 chaos, started erupting all across the globe.
02:31Governments around the world now face a tough choice.
02:33Pass the rising global oil prices onto domestic fuel costs,
02:36or use public funds to subsidize and suppress the price hikes.
02:39When global oil prices rise, crude procurement costs for refiners increase,
02:42and countries more reliant on imports must bear much higher expenses to keep domestic fuel prices stable.
02:46If the government allows price increases, market price signals are reflected,
02:50but consumers will have to buy gasoline and diesel that are more expensive than before.
02:54Businesses using vehicles and the transportation sector will see their expenses rise,
02:57and companies may also face higher costs for logistics and production.
03:00As this burden grows, dissatisfaction toward the government is likely to rise.
03:03Conversely, if the government expands fuel subsidies, it can lower the prices consumers pay.
03:22How long the subsidies can be maintained,
03:29and which income brackets should be targeted also become crucial policy challenges.
03:33However, no policy seems capable of calming the public's current fury.
03:36Right now, citizens are pouring into the streets enraged by the sky-high oil prices,
03:40and the government is even showing signs of failing to keep things under control.
03:43Professor Sana Jaffrey of the Australian National University immediately questioned
03:47how much fiscal capacity Asian and developing nations generally have to respond to this geopolitical crisis,
03:52warning that countries will soon start running out of room to respond,
03:55and once that happens, the fallout will spill over into global financial markets.
03:59Ultimately, the various financial crises starting in these Asian developing nations
04:02will soon impact the entire world.
04:04Back in 1997, South Korea's foreign exchange crisis was heavily impacted
04:07as the Asian financial crisis originating in Thailand spread to neighboring countries,
04:11and the crisis worsened as domestic foreign exchange and financial market issues overlapped.
04:14Right now, South Korea is also facing a major crisis.
04:17Stale, the government managed to secure crude oil supplies through October,
04:20making our situation somewhat better than other countries facing protests.
04:23However, with oil prices staying this high,
04:25the damage will inevitably hit us in the end.
04:27With the war in the Middle East dragging on longer than expected,
04:30the business community seems to believe that disruptions to operations will be unavoidable.
04:34To make matters even worse,
04:35Houthi rebels attack Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline,
04:38shutting down pipeline operations for up to five weeks and leaving everyone deeply worried.
04:42Right now, the government says there are no disruptions yet
04:44regarding the supply and demand of crude oil or NAFTA,
04:46and the industry is reviewing contingency plans to secure supplies via alternative routes,
04:49such as the Cape of Good Hope, just in case.
04:51However, since it takes an additional month to reach Korea,
04:53procurement costs would increase,
04:54leading some to evaluate that it's economically unviable.
04:57For now, Korea seems to be making efforts to fundamentally diversify its supply chains
05:00through the US or Latin America.
05:02On top of that, as high oil prices persist,
05:03it is having an excessively large impact on driving up inflation,
05:06so the fact that consumer prices are rising rapidly is also a major problem.
05:09High oil prices like this will clearly have a huge impact.
05:11For instance, in the case of Europe,
05:13plans to expand defense spending could hit the brakes.
05:14Europe has been expanding its defense budget to respond to Russia's military threats.
05:18Major European nations, including Germany,
05:20are reviving their defense industries
05:21and increasing the budget needed to procure ammunition,
05:23air defense systems, long-range missiles, tanks, and fighter jets.
05:26The problem is that if energy costs rise even further due to the Middle East War,
05:29it will become even harder for governments to allocate their budgets.
05:32Defense spending is hard to cut in the short term,
05:34and rising energy prices immediately burden citizens and businesses.
05:37From the government's standpoint,
05:38they must continue strengthening their military capabilities,
05:40while at the same time providing support measures
05:42to curb rising electricity, heating, and transportation costs.
05:45Within Europe,
05:45voices demanding that the US share more of the security burden,
05:48alongside calls for Europe to secure its own military power,
05:50may grow at the same time.
05:51However, building an independent defense system requires a massive budget.
05:54It's not just the cost of purchasing weapons.
05:55Ongoing expenditures also arise from expanding munition factories,
05:58maintaining troops, training, stockpiling ammunition,
06:00and expanding military infrastructure.
06:02If the energy crisis drags on,
06:03European countries will find themselves forced to choose
06:05between increasing defense spending as planned,
06:07or pouring more of their budget into stabilizing energy prices
06:09and supporting industries.
06:10In this process,
06:11positions are also likely to diverge
06:12depending on each country's economic situation.
06:14Eastern European countries close to Russia may argue
06:16that it's difficult to delay security investments,
06:18but countries that are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy
06:20may prioritize domestic economic conditions
06:22and their citizens' livelihood.
06:23The United States can hardly escape the impact of this war either.
06:26As the war with Iran drags on,
06:27the US must continue to shoulder military and operational costs,
06:30while rising international oil prices
06:31are also putting upward pressure on domestic gas prices and inflation.
06:34For American voters,
06:35gas prices,
06:35living costs,
06:36military casualties,
06:37and the possibility of additional troop deployments
06:39may hit much closer to home
06:40than the war's strategic objectives,
06:41and this climate could very well influence
06:42the upcoming US midterm elections this November.
06:45In fact,
06:45even within the US Republican Party,
06:46there are growing concerns that the war with Iran
06:48could fuel voter discontent
06:49and become a liability for Republican candidates.
06:51If the perception spreads
06:52that President Trump failed to wrap up the war successfully
06:54and got bogged down in prolonged military intervention,
06:57the midterms could shift
06:58from merely grading foreign policy
06:59to a referendum on the entire Trump administration.
07:02Particularly,
07:03if war costs and high oil prices drag on together,
07:05Republican candidates will have to argue
07:06that it was a decision to protect American security.
07:09But voters may question
07:09why the US must keep pouring money and troops
07:11into foreign conflicts.
07:12It is an undeniable fact
07:13that if the war drags on
07:14and the economic burden grows,
07:16it could become a political liability
07:17for President Trump.
07:18Furthermore,
07:19if the Republicans lose their majority
07:20in either the House or the Senate in the midterms,
07:22the US political landscape could rapidly shift.
07:24Because congressional constraints
07:25would mount in the process of advancing budgets,
07:27additional military operations,
07:29and foreign policy,
07:30and the Trump administration's policy momentum
07:31could also weaken
07:32as internal political conflicts within the US
07:34intensify,
07:35America's approach to the Middle East war
07:36could also shift.
07:37The dates over whether to continue the war,
07:39pivot toward negotiations,
07:40or demand that allies shoulder
07:41a greater burden could grow even fiercer
07:42within the US Congress and the Republican Party.
07:44Above all,
07:45if high oil prices continue like this,
07:46a major economic blow is bound to follow.
07:48Whenever high oil prices
07:49and an economic slowdown
07:49persist for a prolonged period,
07:51distrust toward the established political sphere
07:52can grow.
07:53In this process,
07:54it's also mentioned that anti-immigration,
07:55anti-government,
07:56and anti-globalization parties
07:57or political forces
07:58could potentially expand their support.
08:00However,
08:00the actual political outcomes may vary
08:01depending on each country's electoral system,
08:03economic situation,
08:04and how the established political forces respond.
Comments