- 2 hours ago
- #spacex
- #starship
- #elonmusk
- #spacenews
- #mars
SpaceX just dropped a double-whammy of Starship news, and we've got all the juicy updates and corrections you need! Dive into the latest mission details, surprise payloads, and what Elon and Gwynne revealed about the future of Falcon 9 and Starship. Watch till the end, subscribe for more space scoop, and comment below your favorite part from the video! #SpaceX #Starship #ElonMusk #SpaceNews #Mars
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@marschroniken
0:00 - New SpaceX Updates Announced
1:14 - Launch Schedule and Corrections
3:24 - Flight Plan and Mission Sequence
4:50 - Detailed Mission Timeline
7:17 - Booster Issues and Data Collection
9:50 - Channel Support and All In Summit
10:14 - Ship Catching, Reusability, and Starship Future
13:53 - AI Business, Outlook, and Conclusion
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@marschroniken
0:00 - New SpaceX Updates Announced
1:14 - Launch Schedule and Corrections
3:24 - Flight Plan and Mission Sequence
4:50 - Detailed Mission Timeline
7:17 - Booster Issues and Data Collection
9:50 - Channel Support and All In Summit
10:14 - Ship Catching, Reusability, and Starship Future
13:53 - AI Business, Outlook, and Conclusion
Category
🤖
TechTranscript
00:00Hardly had our briefing on flight 14, gun out, when SpaceX broke the violence.
00:06And they did it twice.
00:08On the website, the mission page is now up, with the date, time, a flight plan down to
00:14the second, and a number that we underestimated.
00:17And almost at the same time, Gwynne Shotwell was on stage at the All-In Summit, with Elon
00:24Musk joining in via video from a trailer in Memphis.
00:27The two of them revealed more about the next 12 months of Starship in one hour than SpaceX
00:35did all summer.
00:37Which flight the ship is supposed to be caught on?
00:39With what probability?
00:40When the Falcon 9 will be retired?
00:43And what will be launched into orbit on the Starship next year?
00:47This is the update to our briefing.
00:50We correct what we got wrong.
00:52And only bring what's new.
00:55If you haven't seen the briefing yet, you'll find it in the description.
00:58I recommend watching this video to the end first, and then watching the first briefing.
01:04That way, everything will make the most sense.
01:07My name is Silvan, and this is Mars Chronik.
01:14The date is set.
01:16Three corrections as well.
01:17Monday, September 28th.
01:19The launch window opens at 7.15 a.m. Texas time.
01:23For us, it's 2.15 p.m.
01:26And it lasts 75 minutes.
01:29So it goes until 3.30 p.m.
01:31As a backup day, the American Aviation Authority, FAA, has scheduled Wednesday.
01:38SpaceX adds the usual disclaimer.
01:40Subject to regulatory approval.
01:42And this time, that's more than just a phrase.
01:46More on that in a moment.
01:47The webcast starts half an hour before launch and is supposed to run until splashdown.
01:52That could be a very long stream.
01:55Because SpaceX is promising hours of live images from orbit.
02:00Now, for the first correction, in the briefing, we had the launch scheduled for the night leading into September 15th.
02:06That was the on-paper status of the airspace coordination.
02:08It has been postponed twice since then.
02:11First to the 18th.
02:13Then to the 22nd.
02:14The vehicles were never the problem.
02:17We suspected that, and now it's confirmed, second correction, the payload.
02:23We expected around 20 Starlink V3 satellites.
02:26Because that was a number on the last flights.
02:30It's 26.
02:32According to SpaceX, each one brings 1 terabit per second of capacity to the constellation.
02:38So together, that's 26 terabits per second with a single launch.
02:43SpaceX compares that to a Falcon 9 launch full of V2 mini satellites and comes to about 10 times as
02:50much.
02:51In the briefing, we talked about around 20 Falcon 9 launch S.
02:57That referred to future operational flights and was an overestimate.
03:0110 is the official number.
03:03After deployment, the satellites unfold antennas and solar panels, communicate with the constellation via radio and laser, and race their
03:12orbit using their own engines.
03:14A few weeks after launch, they are supposed to serve customers.
03:18Three of them also have a special task.
03:22That comes later.
03:24Third correction, and this one is the most exciting.
03:27We assumed that the ship would reach orbit directly after its engine cutoff, after about 8 minutes.
03:33That's not how it's planned.
03:35At T plus 8 minutes 11, Starship shuts down.
03:39But it's still on a trajectory that would come back down on its own, just like with all previous flights.
03:45Only at T plus 25 minutes and 28 seconds does the actual maneuver happen.
03:50A 19 second burn to enter orbit.
03:54And SpaceX will only perform this burn under one condition.
03:58The flight control team must first confirm that the hardware for the later de-orbit burn is sufficiently redundant.
04:07Only when it is certain that the ship will come back down, is it allowed to stay up there.
04:11What if it fails this check?
04:13According to our interpretation, it remains on the known suborbital trajectory.
04:17No drama at all, just without reaching orbit.
04:19If it works, Starship will fly around the Earth.
04:22Six times.
04:24At an altitude of about 275 kilometers.
04:28Almost 10 hours in total.
04:31The splashdown location has also changed.
04:33The valid license so far only included the Indian Ocean.
04:37Now the plan is for the Pacific, west of Chile.
04:42That's one of the three areas the FIA needs.
04:45Exactly for that, the license still needs to be changed.
04:49That should be the official approval that's still pending on the mission page.
04:54Here comes the flight plan.
04:55SpaceX has published a complete schedule for the first time.
04:59All times are proximate.
05:00At T-50 minutes, the flight director asks for clearance to begin fueling.
05:06At T-21 minutes and 40 seconds, the Raptors are chilled down.
05:12At T-3 seconds, the start command is sent to the engines.
05:17And at T-0, SpaceX's chart, as always, doesn't say liftoff, but instead, excitement guaranteed.
05:24After that, at T-plus 58 seconds, max Q, T-plus 2 minutes 20, booster engine cutoff, T-plus 2
05:33minutes 22, hot staging, T-plus 2 minutes 27 to T-plus 3 minutes 7.
05:40The boost back burn, T-plus 6 minutes 25 to T-plus 7 minutes and 1 second.
05:48The landing burn of the booster off the coast of Texas, T-plus 8 minutes 11 seconds.
05:53Engine cutoff of the ship.
05:55At T-plus 25 minutes 28, orbital insertion.
05:59Starting at T-plus 44 minutes 18, the deployment.
06:02At T-plus 1 hour 4 minutes 50 seconds, the last of the 26 satellites is out.
06:10That's about 70 seconds per satellite.
06:13Our rule of thumb from the briefing heads through.
06:16Then there's almost 8 hours in orbit.
06:19At T-plus 8 hours 52 minutes and 18 seconds, a single Raptor ignites for 11 seconds for the deorbit
06:27burn.
06:27At T-plus 9 hours 28 minutes 52 seconds, re-entry begins.
06:34At T-plus 9 hours 50 minutes and 11 seconds, the landing burn starts.
06:39Two seconds later, the flip.
06:41Then SpaceX switches from 3 to 2 and to 1 engine.
06:45And at T-plus 9 hours 50 minutes and 30 seconds, the table says, exciting landing.
06:52We will stream everything here on the channel.
06:55The stream is linked below.
06:56And so you don't lose track during almost 10 hours of flight, we have our launch cockpit.
07:04Your second screen next to the stream has all the background information, previous missions and much more.
07:10The current flight plan is running live there as well, along with the mission clock and launch weather.
07:17Channel members and patrons get it for free.
07:19Everyone else can find the link and the discount code in the description below.
07:24SpaceX has named a course for the booster that was missing in the briefing.
07:29During the boost bug burn of 513, all 33 engines run for the first time.
07:35In the final phase of the maneuver, the three central engines indicated a blockage caused by ice and the burn
07:42ended prematurely.
07:43During the landing burn, 8 of the 13 intended engines ignited.
07:48The booster hit the Gulf hard.
07:50We quoted Scott Manley's calculation in the briefing.
07:54Fractions of a second of braking power were missing.
07:56Now we know what probably cost it.
07:594. Flight 14.
08:01Booster 21 received modified hardware that improves the filtering in front of the engines, along with software that is supposed
08:09to make re-ignition more reliable.
08:11The goals for the booster remain as we expected.
08:13Launch, ascent, stage separation, boost back, landing burn and splashdown at a point off the coast.
08:21No catch?
08:22We assessed that correctly.
08:24Now to the three satellites with a special mission.
08:26They carry cameras that film the Starship's heat shield in orbit and transmit the images to the operators.
08:33SpaceX is testing how to determine from space whether a ship is ready to return to the launch site.
08:40This is the groundwork for the catch, where you want to know before landing whether the shield is still intact.
08:46Several tests are being conducted on the shield itself.
08:49Additional mounts are attached to the tiles in the areas where they are most likely to fall off during ascent.
08:56Closed gaps through which plasma could previously flow behind the tiles
09:00and in several areas curved tiles that measurably reduce the heat in the joints.
09:07Some of these changes come directly from the data that SpaceX collected from Ship 40
09:12while it was drifting in the Indian Ocean.
09:15And then the sentence that explains the entire logistics odyssey from the briefing.
09:20Two tiles from Ship 40 are flying again on Ship 41.
09:25This is the first reuse of a heat shield tile on Starship.
09:29Whether SpaceX wants to recover the ship this time, the mission page doesn't say.
09:34The Pacific, west of Chile, is a different part of the world than Christmas Island.
09:40And my guess, marked as an opinion, is that there's another recovery ship nearby again
09:45because this data is too valuable to leave in the water.
09:50Before we get to the All In Summit, a quick personal request.
09:53If this update helps you, give the video some hype.
09:56It's just a single click, costs nothing, and helps the channel a lot
10:01because the algorithm will then show the video to more people.
10:04And if you want to support Mars Chroniken long term, check out the channel membership.
10:08All the information about it is in the description below.
10:12Now, let's get to the All In Summit.
10:15When asked how close the catch was,
10:17Elon Musk said what we could only speculate about in the briefing.
10:21Flight 14 will be the last flight before attempting to catch the ship.
10:25If this flight goes well, SpaceX wants to catch the ship with the tower arms on flight 15.
10:32He estimates the chance on the first attempt at at least 50 to 60 percent.
10:37And he adds,
10:38On flight 13, a tower would have already caught the ship.
10:43The landing was a simulated tower landing about 1,600 kilometers northwest of Australia.
10:49And the ship arrived exactly there.
10:52Why another flight without a catch attempt?
10:54Because a ship that breaks up over land and rains debris on people would, quote,
10:59make SpaceX's popularity shrink very quickly.
11:02That's why they're being cautious.
11:04After that, the schedule.
11:05By the end of this year, more likely the beginning of next year,
11:08the booster and ship are supposed to fly again.
11:10And then, Starship will be the first fully reusable orbital rocket.
11:14Elon Musk considers full reusability with rapid reflight in 2027 to be, quote,
11:21extremely likely.
11:23There's also a correction for us in there.
11:25We expected at least one booster catch on flight 15, maybe even the ship.
11:30Musk talks about the ship.
11:32He didn't say a word about the booster.
11:34However, it would only be logical to first catch the booster,
11:39place it on pad B,
11:40and then catch the ship with the booster at the pad.
11:44Write in the comments what you think.
11:47Gwynne Schottweil, meanwhile,
11:48has stated what this means for the Falcon 9.
11:51If you don't make your own products obsolete,
11:54someone else will.
11:57That's her reasoning.
11:58A Falcon 9 with a dragon on top is like a minivan,
12:01and the road trip to Mars takes six months.
12:04Nobody wants to do that in a minivan.
12:06As of today, the Falcon 9 won't be shut down.
12:11But the course is set, and since she was at it, a job at Boeing.
12:16They probably got more money for their capsule than SpaceX,
12:19so they should go ahead and fly it.
12:22After all, the government paid a lot for it.
12:25She's got a point there.
12:26Then looking ahead to next year,
12:28Starship will become the cargo platform for everything SpaceX is building right now.
12:32This year, the V3 satellites.
12:34Starting next year, the second generation of mobile communication satellites,
12:39which will operate on SpaceX's own spectrum that they bought from EchoStar,
12:44instead of using borrowed frequencies from T-Mobile like they do today.
12:48I've linked our video about that below.
12:50And also next year, the first AI computing satellites.
12:53That's the AI-1, which we covered in July.
12:56With a launch in 2027.
13:0020.
13:01Does all of this need Starship?
13:03Not necessarily, says Shotwell.
13:05But Starship is a much better machine.
13:07SpaceX wants to manufacture the solar cells for them in their own factory near Austin.
13:13And Musk has followed up with TerraFab, the chip factory from our video in August.
13:18The reason is the concern that chips from Taiwan might eventually stop coming.
13:23On top of that, all the chip factories in the world are running at full capacity.
13:28Either build TerraFab or stop growing.
13:31That's his formula.
13:32Specifically, a research line is being built on a Tesla site in Austin, together with Tesla.
13:38The equipment has been ordered.
13:39By the end of 2027, something useful should come out of it.
13:44And according to their own statements, SpaceX already does the chip packaging themselves.
13:49Finally, two sentences that really shouldn't be said at the rocket company.
13:53Shotwell says that in terms of revenue,
13:55SpaceX is as much an AI company as it is a space company.
13:59She says she's a little embarrassed, but SpaceX is now making a huge profit from renting out computers.
14:05And the demand isn't slowing down.
14:07Starting, on the other hand, has only reached 1.5 to 2% market penetration so far, depending on the
14:14country.
14:14The acquisition of the AI programming tool, Cursor, was completed a month ago.
14:20$60 billion in stock, to be exact.
14:24And when asked why Tesla and SpaceX are still two separate companies, Musk replied,
14:29Who could even imagine what steps you could take with such close collaboration?
14:34The audience laughed.
14:36The stocks of both companies rose that very night.
14:40An analyst from JP Morgan and Jefferies have since been publicly calculating what a merger would look like.
14:47By the way, there will be a separate video about that soon.
14:50My honest assessment.
14:52Opinions are clearly marked.
14:54Three things have shifted for me this week.
14:57First, the orbital logic.
14:59SpaceX only flies into orbit if it's certain beforehand that the return is doubly secured.
15:05That sounds cautious and it's the hallmark of a company that's currently transitioning from test flights to operations.
15:11If orbital insertion doesn't happen, then the safety level has done exactly what it was built for.
15:17Two, the 26 terabits.
15:20Ken, Falcon 9 launches in one.
15:23That's the real purpose of this mission.
15:25And that's the reason why Shotwell can talk about the end of the Falcon 9 without it sounding like an
15:32announcement.
15:33Third, Flight 15.
15:34Musk's 50 to 60% are Musk percentages.
15:38And the condition is that Flight 14 has to go well.
15:43What well means, in my opinion, will be decided again at T plus 6 minutes 35 seconds off the coast
15:49of Texas.
15:50If the 13 engines of the landing ban ignite cleanly this time, then the ice problem is solved and a
15:58catch on Flight 15 is realistic.
16:00If they don't ignite again, SpaceX has a pattern that can no longer be explained away with better filters.
16:06For transparency, I should also mention this.
16:08At the time of publication, I personally hold a position in SpaceX stock.
16:13And I am explicitly not giving any buy or sell recommendation.
16:16This video is a journalistic analysis, not investment advice.
16:20I'll see you on Tuesday, September 22, starting at around 10 a.m. on the stream.
16:27Or whenever it happens.
16:28My name is Sirvan, and this was Mars Chroniken.
16:32Thanks for tuning in.
16:34Peraspera ad Astra.
Comments