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SpaceX is gearing up for Starship's first true orbital flight, and we're unraveling all the behind-the-scenes secrets! From FAA planning documents to Starlink payloads, find out what makes Flight Fourteen so epic—and why SpaceX is so quiet about it. Don't miss the hype! Subscribe for more space adventures, and comment below with your favorite moment from this video! #SpaceX #Starship #RocketLaunch #Space #Science
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@marschroniken
0:00 - Introduction and Mission Overview
1:38 - Launch Date, Window, and Paperwork
5:18 - Launch Window Significance and Trajectory Speculation
7:34 - Flight Profile, Payload, and Mission Changes
13:26 - Channel Briefing and Viewer Request
13:54 - Ship Forty Recovery and Implications
15:32 - Upcoming Flights and Production Updates
18:06 - Program Status, Transparency, and Closing
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@marschroniken
0:00 - Introduction and Mission Overview
1:38 - Launch Date, Window, and Paperwork
5:18 - Launch Window Significance and Trajectory Speculation
7:34 - Flight Profile, Payload, and Mission Changes
13:26 - Channel Briefing and Viewer Request
13:54 - Ship Forty Recovery and Implications
15:32 - Upcoming Flights and Production Updates
18:06 - Program Status, Transparency, and Closing
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🤖
TechTranscript
00:00If everything goes as the paperwork suggests, SpaceX will attempt next Friday, the 18th of
00:06September, to put a Starship into a true orbit for the first time in the program's history.
00:1414th test flight, first orbit, possibly with operational Starlink satellites on board.
00:20And what does SpaceX make of it?
00:22Nothing.
00:22No announcement post, no date, no flight plan.
00:26Not yet.
00:27They'll probably come out with it exactly an hour after this video is published.
00:33Still, we know the schedule, date included.
00:36Backup day and launch window, because the FAA spilled the beans.
00:43Meanwhile, the launch padded starbase sits empty.
00:46It has rarely been empty this close to a launch.
00:50The rocket exists.
00:51Both stages are fully tested.
00:53The flight termination system is currently being installed.
00:55But officially, officially, this flight simply hasn't happened yet.
01:00Not even on paper from SpaceX itself.
01:03Everything we know about Flight 14 comes from an airspace coordination planning notice, radio
01:09filings with the US regulatory authority and on-site observations.
01:14That is exactly the chain of clues we're going through today.
01:18What is in the new document?
01:20Why is Starship launching early in the morning this time?
01:23What makes this flight different from Flight 13?
01:26And why?
01:27When did the Starship just fly past Madagascar?
01:30My name is Sirvan and this is Mars Chroniken.
01:38The date?
01:39Friday, September 18th.
01:42Let's start with the question everyone is asking.
01:45When is that thing flying?
01:47SpaceX never announced the date.
01:50Instead, the Federal Aviation Administration did, FAA for short, the American Aviation Authority.
01:57On September 11th, they published an updated operations plan advisory.
02:03That is a planning advisory for airspace coordination for upcoming operations.
02:09Dates and time slots are set so air traffic controllers and airlines can clear the airspace in time.
02:15And there it is in black and white.
02:17SpaceX Starship Flight 14, Starbase, Texas.
02:22Primary date?
02:23Friday, September 18th.
02:25Backupdate, Saturday, September 19th.
02:28Launch window on both days from 12.15pm to 2.14pm UTC.
02:34In Texas, that is 7.15am to 9 o'clockam.
02:40And for us in Central Europe, that's 2.15pm to 4.14pm Central European Time.
02:48For the first time in a long time then, a Starship launch that no one here has to set an
02:53alarm for.
02:53That takes September 15th off the table, which the same planning slides had listed as the target date for weeks.
03:00The rest of the clues continue to fit the picture.
03:03In early September, SpaceX applied to the Federal Communications Commission, or FCC, for a 60-day special temporary authority to
03:11deploy Starlink fee-free satellites and operate them on specific frequencies.
03:17In the application, SpaceX explicitly requested approval before the 15th of September because that's when the satellites are scheduled to
03:26be deployed.
03:26The fact that it's now three days later doesn't contradict that.
03:30You're allowed to have an approval in hand a few days before you actually need it.
03:34And NASA chief Jared Isaacman had only vaguely mentioned September as the time frame anyway.
03:40However, an advisory is not a launch license and not an ongoing countdown.
03:45The FAA continues to publish what SpaceX reports to it.
03:49And SpaceX can reschedule at any time.
03:52But it is the first official document with a specific date and it incidentally explains a detail that didn't fit
03:59into the picture until now.
04:01That's because both vehicles have long been fully tested.
04:04Ship 41 completed its static fires on August 19th and 21st.
04:09First, a single engine in the profile of a D-orbit burn, then all six for a full 60 seconds.
04:16Booster 21 followed on the 28th, August, with a full-duration static fire of all 33 Raptor 3 engines.
04:25For Flight 13, the last booster test took place just over a week before launch.
04:30This time it'll be three weeks, during the flyover by NASA spaceflight observers on the 8th.
04:35Of September, orange explosives warning signs were hanging at the entrances to Mega B-1 and 2.
04:43That means both vehicles were getting their flight termination system, one of the final touches before rollout.
04:50So the vehicles aren't what's causing the delay.
04:53They are, in all likelihood, waiting on paperwork.
04:56The current launch license only permits the ship to head toward the Indian Ocean so far.
05:03And not all approvals have gone through completely.
05:07By Friday, the rocket also needs to roll out to the pad and be stacked.
05:11Based on experience, that takes a few days.
05:14So the schedule is tight but feasible.
05:16While the launch window is the most exciting number in the document.
05:20The date is one piece of news.
05:23The window is the other.
05:257.15 a.m. local time.
05:27That's a launch at sunrise.
05:29And Starship has recently launched almost exclusively in the afternoon or evening.
05:34The last morning launch, Flight 5, in October 2024.
05:40The mission with the very first booster catch by the chopsticks.
05:44This detail immediately made the rounds in the comments under the FAA document.
05:48That's not an omen, of course.
05:51A launch window is determined by physics and logic, not nostalgia.
05:56But the physics here is indeed interesting.
05:58And here is my interpretation explicitly marked as an interpretation.
06:03If you launch at 7.15 a.m. in Texas, the booster's landing burn in the Gulf happens right at
06:11daybreak.
06:12For the exact phase that went wrong during Flight 13, which SpaceX wants to observe with all available cameras this
06:20time.
06:21A splashdown of the ship in the Indian Ocean after about an hour of flight, on the other hand, would
06:27fall into the local night during this window.
06:30With Flight 13 and its evening launch, it was the other way around.
06:34Back then, the ship came down off Australia.
06:37If the ship, on the other hand, comes down in the southeastern Pacific of Chile and Peru after multiple orbits
06:44around Earth, it would be broad daylight there.
06:47Observers, therefore, view this window as a sign that SpaceX is at least keeping the option open for a longer
06:54orbital flight with a Pacific landing.
06:56That is speculation.
06:58The current license still only specifies the Indian Ocean.
07:02However, a two-hour window is unusually generous for Starship and an orbital flight needs this flexibility far more than
07:12a suborbital one.
07:13So it wouldn't surprise me if there were updates on this a few hours after this video is released.
07:20If that's the case, I'll write the news for you in a pinned comment below this video.
07:25And on X, of course.
07:26What sets Flight 14 apart from Flight 13?
07:31And with that, on to the actual script.
07:34Until recently, we assumed that Flight 14 would essentially repeat Flight 13, flying a nearly suborbital trajectory on which the
07:44payload comes back down after about 20 minutes.
07:47The FCC filing overturned this interpretation.
07:51An approval for the deployment and subsequent radio operation of Starlink V-3 satellites only makes sense if the satellites
07:59stay up.
08:00And satellites that stay up need an orbit.
08:03On paper, Flight 14 will therefore be the first orbital Starship flight with a real operational payload.
08:10On Flight 13, the 20 deployed V-3 satellites only survived for about 20 minutes.
08:18Yet still passed all tests within that window.
08:23This time, the constellation deployment via Starship begins.
08:26The exact number is unconfirmed.
08:28Based on the last flights, around 20 is likely.
08:32It could also be a few more.
08:33For context, a single operational Starship launch with V-3 satellites expands Starlink bandwidth as much as about 20 Falcon
08:439 launches with version 2.
08:46The orbit also changes the return.
08:48On the suborbital trajectory of Flight 13, the re-ignition in space was a proof of concept.
08:55A test we could afford.
08:56In orbit, the de-orbit burn becomes mandatory.
09:00Without it, the ship will eventually come down uncontrolled.
09:03Anytime, anywhere.
09:05Flight 13 at least demonstrated the maneuver.
09:08Back then, a raptor ignited at T plus 38 minutes and 58 seconds, burning for 14 seconds so brightly.
09:18But observers in South Africa saw it with the naked eye.
09:22What we won't see, on the other hand, is a catch.
09:25For a ship, Elon Musk pushed the tower catch on August 20th back to, quote, a few million months.
09:33And to this day, no documentation has surfaced that would permit the ship's return to Starbase.
09:39For the booster, an FCC application from early August actually still included a return of the first stage to the
09:46launch site.
09:47Exactly that section was later removed.
09:49And the new FAA document doesn't change that either.
09:53It specifies a date and window.
09:55No catch.
09:56A tiny remaining chance for a catch attempt might still exist.
10:00But it's not realistic.
10:01And that's also rational.
10:03Because the real trouble spot of this program is the booster's landing burn.
10:07On Flight 13, only a portion of the 13 planned engines ignited.
10:13Three failed after a few seconds and effectively only five provided braking.
10:18The booster impacted the gulf at around 160 kilometers per hour exactly in the cleared zone.
10:24Scott Manley's telemetry calculation on this ignited 100 meters higher
10:29and the booster would have reached the water's surface at speed T minutes.
10:33So what was missing wasn't a mirror tip, but just fractions of a second of braking power.
10:38As long as this ignition sequence isn't dialed in, SpaceX won't risk a Mechazilla catch.
10:44The chopsticks have already proven the catch itself.
10:47Here's how the mission plays out.
10:49All times are approximations based on the Flight 13 profile and from Seiko onward rough estimates.
10:55Because SpaceX hasn't published the flight plan yet.
10:58If the rocket launches at the opening of the window, T0 is at 2.15 p.m. Central European time
11:06for us.
11:06A new addition to the countdown since Flight 13 is a built-in hold gate at T-60 seconds.
11:13There, SpaceX can pause for 5 to 8 seconds and even reset once again.
11:19The two-hour window gives plenty of breathing room for that this time.
11:22At T-minus 3 seconds, the 33 Raptor 3 engines on Booster 21 ignite, providing a combined 80,807 kilomutons
11:32of lift-off thrust.
11:33That is 8,240 metric toms.
11:36At around T-plus 2 minutes and 18 seconds, MECO follows, meaning most engines cut off.
11:44Three seconds later comes hot staging.
11:46At around T-plus 2 minutes and 30 seconds, the boost back burn, which was spot on again on Flight
11:5213.
11:53T-plus 6 minutes, 35 seconds.
11:55Then the moment everyone will be watching.
11:58The booster's landing burn, followed by splashdown in the Gulf around T-plus 7 minutes.
12:03The ship achieves engine cut off at around 8 minutes, 15 seconds.
12:09This time, likely, in an actual orbit.
12:11After that, the payload dispenser opens.
12:14As a rule of thumb, around 1 minute per satellite.
12:17The deployment alone can therefore noticeably prolong the mission.
12:21Then comes the de-orbit burn.
12:23Re-entry at around 26,000 kilometers per hour.
12:27The swoosh maneuver into the final approach, flip, landing burn and splashdown.
12:32Where exactly remains unclear.
12:35From an environmental perspective, the FAA has cleared three areas.
12:39The Central Pacific, the Southeastern Pacific of Chile and Peru and the proven Indian Ocean.
12:46However, the valid license only covers the Indian Ocean.
12:49For the others, it would have to be amended beforehand.
12:53Depending on the orbit, this could be a short mission, under one orbit around the Earth or one lasting several
12:59orbits.
13:00As I mentioned, the morning window points more towards the longer variant.
13:04That is not confirmed, though.
13:06By the way, quite a few upgrades were made at the launch pad itself.
13:10The iconic tower vent that blew out the white cloud of oxygen during fueling is gone.
13:16Replaced by a return line to the tank farm.
13:19And the cladding pens on the tower now reach further up.
13:23Protection that will only be needed for future catches.
13:26Before we get to the most curious chapter, a quick request of my own.
13:30If this briefing helps you, give the video some hype.
13:33It's just a single click, costs nothing and helps the channel tremendously.
13:37Because the algorithm then shows the video to more people.
13:40And if you'd like to support Mars Chroniken on an ongoing basis, feel free to check out the channel membership.
13:46You can find all the details about that in the description below.
13:49Now, on to the starship that is currently making world history at a snail's pace.
13:54After Flight 13, Ship 40 pulled off the softest splashdown in the program's history.
14:00It tipped over, didn't explode and was still drifting intact in the Indian Ocean days later.
14:06The recovery ship go Australis next to it.
14:09SpaceX then towed it to Christmas Island over the course of weeks and loaded it onto Deep Forted Air.
14:15A semi-submersible heavy lift vessel from the Dutch company Boskalis that can lower its stern to take on floating
14:22cargo.
14:23Since the beginning of September, Deep Forte has been on its way home with Ship 40 on board and was
14:28off the coast of Madagascar on September 8th.
14:31In between, she took a break and waited for calmer seas of South Africa, where waves were reaching heights of
14:386 to 8 meters.
14:40Arrival in Brownsville is scheduled for October 8th.
14:44That would make Ship 40 the first starship to come home after its full flight, just about two and a
14:52half months after launch.
14:54And that raises the question from our briefing.
14:56Will SpaceX go through all this trouble again if Ship 41 makes another soft splashdown in the ocean on Flight
15:0514?
15:06Whether in the Indian Ocean or the Pacific?
15:09There is no answer to that.
15:11It's up in the air.
15:12My assessment?
15:14As long as every recovered ship delivers unique data on the heat shield and structure after a real flight, the
15:21logistical odyssey is definitely worth it.
15:24At the latest, with the tower catch, the issue will resolve itself anyway.
15:28And that catch is getting closer.
15:30Because the machine behind it is running at full throttle.
15:34The Duo 4 Flight 15 is practically ready.
15:38Ship 42 rolled out on the 2nd of September to Massey's test site, completed two full cryotests and have it
15:47back into Mega Bay 2, ready for its raptors.
15:51Booster 22, fully stacked since August 14th, followed overnight into September 9th for its first cryotest.
16:00Observers conclude from the production sequence that B-22 and S-42 are the pair for Flight 15.
16:07SpaceX hasn't given any numbers.
16:09What is confirmed is a radio spectrum application for Flight 15 out of Starbase.
16:15Once again, with an orbital second stage.
16:18If Flight 14 goes smoothly, we expect at least a booster catch attempt on Flight 15, maybe even both Booster
16:27and Ship.
16:28That's our expectation, not an announcement.
16:31And behind the scenes, production is visibly accelerating.
16:35Booster 23 has nearly finished stacking its liquid oxygen tank after just three weeks.
16:40B-21 and B-22 took around a month for that.
16:45Here, B-20 took nearly two.
16:47B-18 even took 123 days.
16:53That's assembly line production.
16:55Meanwhile, Florida is being prepped.
16:57The Starship launch pad at LC-39A could be ready in a few weeks.
17:02The chopsticks were already tested there using weight bags and rapid movements.
17:08The tank farm and water dilute system too.
17:11The Giga Bay at Roberts Road has gotten its roof.
17:14At Space Launch Complex 37, the flame trench is taking shape.
17:19And with Project Ignition, an entirely dedicated test site for Mars ships is even being built.
17:25The transport equipment is ready.
17:27The cargo barge MAMAC-31, christened by SpaceX with the marvelous name, you'll thank me later.
17:34A deck barge measuring about 79 by 22 meters intended to carry starships and boosters horizontally from Starbase to Florida.
17:45In Texas last week, a horizontal transport cradle was tested using counterweights.
17:51At the Kennedy Space Center, a matching transport frame rolled over to the harbor basin.
17:56That makes it realistic for SpaceX to ship a booster and a ship to the Cape yet this year.
18:02Not confirmed, my honest take.
18:05The 18th.
18:06September is, for the first time, a date from an official document and no longer just hallway gossip.
18:12That's a real difference compared to the situation a week ago.
18:17Still, the empty pad and the pending license issue tell me that a slip to the backup date or into
18:23the following week shouldn't really shock anyone.
18:26Count on the second half of September with Friday as the best candidate.
18:31What I find more remarkable than the date is what this flight reveals about the state of the program.
18:38The first orbital attempt of the largest rocket in history isn't being announced.
18:43It's leaking out through radio license applications and airspace planning.
18:48As if it were routine.
18:50At the same time, this flight won't be decided in orbit, but at T plus 6 minutes 35 in the
18:57Gulf in the first morning light over Texas.
18:59If the landing burn works this time, little stands in the way of the catch on flight 15.
19:06If it fails again, SpaceX has a recurring issue with the Raptor re-ignition that can no longer be explained
19:13away.
19:13For the sake of transparency, I should also mention this.
19:16At the time of publication, I myself hold a position in SpaceX stock and explicitly make no recommendation to buy
19:24or sell.
19:25This video is a journalistic analysis, not investment advice.
19:29See you at the launch on Friday the 18th, September, starting at 2.15 p.m. Central European Time, right
19:37here on the stream or whenever the time comes.
19:40My name is Sirvan and this was Mars Chroniken.
19:43Thanks for tuning in per aspera ad astra.
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