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A sudden escalation between U.S. forces and the IRGC in the Persian Gulf has triggered a renewed "tanker war," driving Brent crude oil prices past $100 per barrel. Following Iranian ballistic missile attacks on U.S. Navy warships and airbases in Jordan, CENTCOM retaliated by destroying eight Iranian crude carriers in precision strikes. Discover how maritime blockades, Patriot interceptor shortages, and U.S. Treasury sanctions are impacting global energy markets and regional stability.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - CENTCOM Destroys Eight Iranian Tankers in Escalating Gulf Strikes
02:23 - Iranian Ballistic Missile Retaliation on US Bases in Jordan
03:29 - Patriot PAC-3 Interceptor Depletion Concerns for Ukraine
05:23 - $100 Brent Crude & Escalating Global Energy Inflation
06:48 - Stranded Tankers in the Gulf & Iran's Dark-Fleet Vulnerabilities
10:30 - Mines and Security Collapse in the Strait of Hormuz
12:02 - Strait Transit Drops 95% as Global Oil Flows Shrink
13:38 - Operation Economic Outcast: Financial & Aviation Sanctions Surge
16:19 - Escalation Trap: Warnings Against Kinetic Solutions in Hormuz
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/Bd0zVVaw
A sudden escalation between U.S. forces and the IRGC in the Persian Gulf has triggered a renewed "tanker war," driving Brent crude oil prices past $100 per barrel. Following Iranian ballistic missile attacks on U.S. Navy warships and airbases in Jordan, CENTCOM retaliated by destroying eight Iranian crude carriers in precision strikes. Discover how maritime blockades, Patriot interceptor shortages, and U.S. Treasury sanctions are impacting global energy markets and regional stability.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - CENTCOM Destroys Eight Iranian Tankers in Escalating Gulf Strikes
02:23 - Iranian Ballistic Missile Retaliation on US Bases in Jordan
03:29 - Patriot PAC-3 Interceptor Depletion Concerns for Ukraine
05:23 - $100 Brent Crude & Escalating Global Energy Inflation
06:48 - Stranded Tankers in the Gulf & Iran's Dark-Fleet Vulnerabilities
10:30 - Mines and Security Collapse in the Strait of Hormuz
12:02 - Strait Transit Drops 95% as Global Oil Flows Shrink
13:38 - Operation Economic Outcast: Financial & Aviation Sanctions Surge
16:19 - Escalation Trap: Warnings Against Kinetic Solutions in Hormuz
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/Bd0zVVaw
Category
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NewsTranscript
00:01For weeks, the situation in the Persian Gulf seemed to be stabilizing.
00:05You could see it in arguably the most important indicator of them all, the price of oil.
00:10But any hopes of a more prolonged calm in the region seemed to have been dashed.
00:14On September 5th, US forces in the Gulf attacked and destroyed three Iranian oil tankers
00:20after Iran's Revolutionary Guards, or IRGC, tried to attack a US aircraft carrier and destroyer with ballistic missiles.
00:28Following these attacks, the US warned that it would, if necessary, destroy Iran's limited and exposed oil fleet.
00:35But the warnings seemed to have fallen on deaf ears.
00:39On September 8th, Iran again tried targeting US warships.
00:43And again, the US responded with venom.
00:45This time, CENTCOM said it had struck and destroyed another five Iranian tankers.
00:50And like the previous time, they provided the footage to prove it.
00:53Let's take a closer look at the story behind these latest attacks and what they tell us about where this
00:59conflict is headed next.
01:01But first, just a quick reminder to subscribe to the channel and let us know your thoughts in the comments
01:05below.
01:06And if you really enjoy our content, consider becoming a member to get access to exclusive content we don't publish
01:11publicly.
01:12According to its official report on the incident, US Central Command, or CENTCOM, said its forces destroyed five Iranian crude
01:20oil carriers September 8th after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted a US Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over
01:28the past two days.
01:30CENTCOM said that the unnamed US warship that had been targeted successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to
01:36patrol regional waters, and that no American personnel were harmed.
01:40But revenge was swift, nevertheless.
01:43CENTCOM hit the Iranian crude oil tankers MT Kavits, MT Charminar, MT Horizon 1, and MT Riesko in the Gulf
01:51of Oman, along with MT Deria near Karg Island.
01:55According to its report, US forces had directed the crews to abandon ship before the vessels were struck and rendered
02:01inoperable.
02:02As a result, like in the previous attack where the same process took place, there were no casualties reported, at
02:08least not human ones.
02:10All eight ships struck in the two rounds of strikes appear to have been rendered inoperable, or permanently disabled, in
02:17CENTCOM's language.
02:19One, the Kylo struck on September 5th, subsequently sank and is now resting on the ocean floor.
02:25But as it had done after the September 5th attacks, and as it had promised, Iran struck back just as
02:31fast.
02:31It launched a ballistic missile attack targeting US bases in Jordan.
02:35Unverified social media footage appeared to show roughly 30 to 40 missiles being launched from various parts of Iran,
02:43reportedly including Yazd, Khomein, Esfahan, Karamabad, Tabriz, Qom, Zanjan, and, unusually, the capital city Tehran itself.
02:52Jordan's military acknowledged the attack and, as usual, downplayed the consequences.
02:56It said its air defense systems had intercepted 18 ballistic missiles launched toward its territory,
03:02and that two others fell in open areas with no reports of casualties.
03:06That's what they usually say.
03:08Footage from social media and satellite imagery after the fact can sometimes contradict or complicate these claims.
03:14Unverified footage on social media taken from both Jordan and neighboring Israel shows incredible scenes in the Jordanian skies.
03:21The footage doesn't show obvious signs of AI generation and reverse image searches didn't indicate that it was recycled from
03:27previous attacks.
03:28The attacks seem to have targeted the Mufawak-Salti and Prince Hassan air bases.
03:33Two important bases used by US forces in the country, a staunch US and Israeli ally.
03:39In the footage, the skies above the bases are literally filled with incoming missiles and interceptors rising to meet them.
03:45At least 100 interceptors can be seen during the course of the attack, which happen in several waves.
03:51Most of them appear to be PAC-3 interceptors from Patriot air defense systems.
03:55It's a sight that must have made Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's heart sink.
04:00Ukraine's stocks of Patriot interceptors have been reduced to minimal amounts, likely in the single digits or low double digits,
04:06leaving the skies above Kyiv and other cities at the mercy of relentless Russian ballistic missile attacks in recent months.
04:13Zelensky has been pleading with allies to increase supplies, whatever they can spare,
04:17but when the US says, sorry pal, we need them, as they have more or less done in recent times,
04:22scenes like these lend heavy credence to the claim.
04:25Multiple successful interceptions by the interceptors can be seen in the footage.
04:29Indeed, most of the incoming missiles appear to be taken out, but not all of them.
04:33At least two direct impacts can be seen, apparently on the territory of the base.
04:38Separately, at least two of Iran's notorious cluster missiles can also be seen,
04:42apparently separating into multiple objects and flying towards the vicinity of the base.
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04:53around the world.
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05:03In the meantime, before Iran launched its retaliatory attack on the Jordanian bases,
05:08the IRGC's navy issued a stark warning.
05:10This is the same navy that President Donald Trump keeps telling us is lying on the bottom of the ocean.
05:16In a terse statement, it told crews of oil tankers anchored in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports
05:21to urgently evacuate their vessels, indicating imminent attacks on them.
05:25Maybe they're bluffing, but that's not what recent history suggests.
05:29It's not good news for the ships in question or, frankly, for your wallet, unless you're going long on oil.
05:34The day after the US's latest strikes, the price of Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel on September 9th for
05:40the first time since July.
05:42That's up from roughly $70 to $72 in early July, a roughly 30% jump in just two months.
05:48The increase is accelerating, driven primarily by the tanker war that has erupted over the past week.
05:53Oil is up around 8% in September alone and remains roughly 30% above pre-war levels.
05:59Of course, when the price of oil goes up, the price of gasoline and diesel must follow.
06:04That means transportation costs go up and thus the price of everything that needs to be transported,
06:08i.e. practically all goods, inevitably follows.
06:11And if the US and Iran both keep striking tankers, it's highly unlikely that the price is going to go
06:17anywhere except to the moon.
06:19In its latest analysis, Goldman Sachs forecasts a year-end Brent price of about $90 per barrel if the situation
06:26stabilizes and oil flows gradually recover.
06:29But if the situation continues escalating, Goldman Sachs sees Brent potentially rising above $120.
06:35The impacts of the US's war on Iran have already caused rocketing inflation around the world, not least in the
06:41US itself.
06:43Even before this latest round of escalation, diesel hit a new record price in the US on September 4th,
06:48soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time.
06:52A further 20% to 30% spike due to even more tankers being hit is going to make that
06:57look cheap.
06:58One of the biggest concerns about a brewing tit-for-tat tanker war is just how many tankers there still
07:03are stuck inside the strait,
07:05as both the US and Iran have ably demonstrated they're essentially sitting ducks.
07:10After the US's September 5th attacks on the three Iranian tankers, CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper made no bones
07:17about what the US's willingness to continue taking out Iranian tankers if need be.
07:21If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost, taking out three of
07:26yours, he said.
07:28Whether that means Iran shot at four ships resulting in five of their tankers being hit is unclear,
07:33but there are plenty more sitting ducks in the water should either side wish to continue escalating.
07:37There are estimated to be around 70 ships stranded in the Gulf, although not all of them are Iranian tankers,
07:44and approximately 20 are at or around Karg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub,
07:50with the rest at various other points along the Iranian coastline.
07:53Given how easily it disabled or destroyed the eight tankers it has targeted during September to date,
07:58the US could potentially threaten more vessels inside the Gulf if it chose to escalate further.
08:02That would represent the loss of around 9 or 10 percent of Iran's total oil tanker fleet.
08:08Wynwood, an Israeli maritime intelligence company that tracks all vessels with Iranian sanctions compliance risk,
08:14not just the Iranian flagged fleet, put the size of Iran's tracked dark fleet network at around 719 tankers in
08:20April.
08:2172 of those are Iranian flagged, with the rest falling under the so-called Shadow Fleet.
08:26The loss of these tankers would obviously be a major blow for Iran, but it most likely would not be
08:31a critical blow,
08:32at least not for a couple of months.
08:34Of the remainder of its fleet, some 100 to 120 are moored at foreign ports.
08:39Some 48 are understood to be anchored at EOPL Anchorage at the STS transfer hub off Johor, Malaysia,
08:46with roughly 20 in ballast post-transfer off the coast of Sri Lanka,
08:50and a further 11 to 15 at the port of Chabaha in the Arabian Sea, just outside the Gulf itself.
08:56The remaining 500 to 600 are not believed to be operational.
08:59They are either in ballast, under repairs, or being held in reserve.
09:02The US could probably locate and strike those as well.
09:05But at least in the short term, that's unlikely to cut off Iran's crucial oil revenues.
09:10The main point of the US is blockade and tanker attacks.
09:13The Wall Street Journal estimated in September that Iran's stockpile of crude already on vessels outside the blockade
09:20had fallen to around 29 million barrels, from roughly 90 million barrels in mid-July, and could run out as
09:26soon as October.
09:27And it's going to take significantly more tankers than the 70 in the Gulf being taken out before the Shadow
09:32Fleet's structural integrity is seriously threatened.
09:35The problem, of course, is that the more the US attacks Iranian tankers, the more likely it is that Iran
09:39will respond in kind.
09:40And there are twice as many sitting ducks in the Gulf for Iran to target as the other way round.
09:46About 70 non-sanctioned ships have been stranded in the Gulf since February,
09:50with a further 65 that entered after the June MOU temporarily reopened the strait but have since been unable to
09:56leave.
09:56The International Maritime Organization reported in early August that around 6,000 seafarers were still stranded across roughly 500 vessels,
10:05of all types as of early August. And that number has likely grown since the strait reclosed.
10:11According to global trade analysts Kepler, no large ships have passed through the strait since early September,
10:16and on September 7, a Saudi-loaded tanker was explicitly prevented from leaving.
10:21That's not surprising given the risks.
10:23There have been 27 missile strike attacks in and around the waterway since July.
10:28And then there are the mines.
10:29On August 25, Trump posted on Truth Social that
10:33all mines have been removed and or detonated from within the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz.
10:38St. Conk confirmed that both inbound and outbound lanes were cleared.
10:42But just a week later, on September 1, the Saudi oil supertanker Sadir was struck by unknown projectiles while transiting
10:49the strait.
10:50No casualties were initially reported.
10:52The following day, the IRGC claimed that two more oil tankers had hit naval mines while attempting to cross what
10:57it called an illegal route.
10:59It claimed both vessels were reportedly disabled and the crews had disembarked.
11:04St. Conk flatly denied that any of the three mine hits had happened.
11:08The IRGC claims haven't been verified, but the Sadar situation is much harder to brush away.
11:13So it's genuinely difficult to work out what's actually going on with the mines in the strait.
11:17Maybe, as the US and anti-regime Iranian publication Iran International claim,
11:23all mines have actually been cleared.
11:25Maybe Iran has subsequently laid new mines, although satellite imagery seems to preclude this possibility.
11:31Or maybe, as Al Jazeera noted on August 26, the mine clearance claims by Trump likely
11:36relate to those that are known to have been deployed in the key lane.
11:39Some anchored mines could have broken free and
11:41there may be risks beyond the lanes.
11:43In other words, Sadir got unlucky.
11:45But whatever the case may be, the fact is that Iran has repeatedly attacked and threatened tankers
11:51attempting to sail through the strategic waterway without its authorization,
11:54and there aren't too many ships willing to take the risk of passing through that strait at present.
11:59Before the war, roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz
12:04and between 100 and 130 ships transited daily,
12:08including 50 to 65 tankers hauling 20 to 21 million barrels of oil.
12:13During the hot phase of the war, when Iran and the Gulf states were being pounded daily,
12:18that slowed to an almost complete standstill.
12:21During the brief respite brought about by the June MOU,
12:24that number grew to around 24 to 28 ships per day in total.
12:27But that fell abruptly after the MOU collapsed and hostilities began again, albeit more muted.
12:33By early September, the number of transiting ships had fallen to an average of 6 to 13 per day,
12:38and that seems to be falling again as the tanker war escalates.
12:42That's a roughly 90 to 95 percent drop.
12:45True, the amount of oil transiting the waterway in September to date hasn't fallen anywhere near as dramatically.
12:50Kepler estimates it at an average of around 8.6 million barrels per day at present,
12:56roughly 55 to 60 percent down from pre-war levels.
12:59But the reduction from pre-war flows represents a loss of more than 10 percent of the world's daily oil
13:04consumption,
13:05and if both sides keep hitting oil tankers, that number is only going to grow.
13:09And thus, so is inflation.
13:11So far, the U.S. seems undeterred.
13:14Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed on September 8 that the U.S. will not allow Iran's attacks to go
13:20unanswered.
13:21Iran continues to try to hit U.S. naval ships,
13:23and for every time they do that or try to do that, they're going to lose tankers.
13:27And I think you'll see that again today, he told reporters while on a trip to Colombia.
13:32In the meantime, the U.S. is simultaneously ratcheting up the economic pressure on Iran alongside the military pressure.
13:38The Trump administration's Operation Economic Outcast campaign is aimed at severing critical financial lifelines
13:45for the already heavily sanctioned Iranian government.
13:48Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has repeatedly warned the U.S. would be going after all companies
13:54that enable the Iranian regime financially,
13:56with penalties as severe as being completely shut out of the U.S.-dominated global financial system.
14:02And he's been putting his money where his mouth is.
14:04On September 4, the U.S. announced penalties against the Turkish Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi Anonim Sekheti.
14:11It accused the bank of being established to enable Iran's efforts to transfer oil revenues from China to Turkey,
14:17where they could then be converted to cash and gold.
14:20The institution allegedly also knowingly offered banking services to Iranian financial entities,
14:26including those already sanctioned by the U.S. government in 2022 for funneling Tehran's oil sales.
14:32An Egyptian bank's operations in the United Arab Emirates were also limited last month as part of the campaign.
14:39But the administration stopped short of imposing sanctions as it grapples with how to sever Iran's economic footprint
14:44without upending the global financial system.
14:47But that doesn't mean Operation Economic Outcast is slowing down.
14:51Just hours before the U.S. struck five Iranian tankers, it slapped down another layer of sanctions.
14:56The new penalties targeting the remaining elements of Tehran's already beleaguered aviation ecosystem,
15:02which has been under layers of U.S., U.N. and EU restrictions and sanctions imposed over several decades,
15:07including measures dating back to 1979, the Islamic Revolution.
15:11Let this be a warning to anyone doing business with Iran's remaining airlines, all of which we sanctioned today.
15:17You are at risk of being cut off from the global financial system," Besant said in a press release.
15:22It remains to be seen which of the two approaches, military or economic, will yield the desired results, if any.
15:28Certainly, public statements by Iranian government and military officials are as defiant as ever.
15:33In a response to the latest sanctions, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi posted on X,
15:38After failing to achieve its aims through sanctions or war, Washington's novel solution is more sanctions, seriously.
15:46In response to the attacks on its oil tankers, the IRGC claimed that in addition to the missile launches against
15:51the U.S. bases in Jordan,
15:53which it said had inflicted heavy damage on the hostile forces,
15:56It had also carried out retaliatory strikes against two U.S. vessels, eight oil tankers,
16:02and ten other ships attempting to pass through the prohibited zone of the Strait of Hormuz in the early hours
16:07of Wednesday.
16:08Most of that has not been confirmed by Western sources, but the threat is clearly real.
16:13And rather than forcing Iran to capitulate, the U.S.'s attacks may actually be pushing the region into another, much
16:18hotter war.
16:19Danny Citrinevich, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies,
16:25is one prominent voice warning that such back-and-forth strikes can only risk more retaliation and further impact the
16:31global economy.
16:32There is no kinetic solution to the Strait of Hormuz problem, he said on social media.
16:36Every attempt to impose one only brings Washington and Tehran closer to an escalation that may become increasingly difficult to
16:43control.
16:44The tension is rising. What happens next?
16:47Make sure you're subscribed to the channel to find out.
16:50In the meantime, check out this video about what B-52 bombers did to Iran earlier in the war.
16:55If things keep heading in the direction we're going, we may be seeing more of them coming soon.
16:59And thank you for watching.
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