00:00Let's try and understand how Rajasthan voted in its local body polls.
00:05Our two analysts are with us, Amitabh Tiwari as well, as Rashid Kidwai.
00:09Amitabh Tiwari, would you want to go first, if you're reading in the Rajasthan local body results?
00:14Well, see, essentially, if you see, Rajasthan has always been a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP.
00:21And for the past almost three decades, the state has slipped between Congress and BJP in the state-level elections.
00:28BJP is almost holding on to it, because we don't have the vote share, but even if you assume that
00:3341% of seats it has won,
00:36and 35% Congress, which means that largely they have held on to their vote shares of 2023 elections.
00:44There is anti-incumbency, but the anti-incumbency vote is getting split.
00:48So the message for the Congress is that it is not being able to consolidate the anti-incumbency with 22
00:55% of the seats being won by independents.
00:58So a sort of a third front, or a front which is not reposing confidence in either the BJP or
01:05the Congress, is emerging.
01:08Mind you, Rajasthan also has had in the past significant number of DST and independent MLAs, even in the state
01:15elections.
01:17Also, this shows that there is a scope for a new level of politics, and if several Zenzi candidates have
01:28won,
01:28and some of them have won from the independents, it is also showing that the youth may have voted for
01:34some of the independent candidates as well.
01:36Again, showing a no confidence in both the Congress and the BJP.
01:40However, it is a hyper-local election, the number of votes cast in each vote is very less, so is
01:47the margin.
01:48So significant inferences cannot be drawn.
01:51Largely, both are holding on to their votes, you can say.
01:55But there is a third front, or a force which is emerging.
01:58And the Congress's inability to consolidate the anti-incumbency vote is again being seen in this state,
02:04as is being seen across many states in the country.
02:07Fair point. I want to bring in Rashid Kidwai.
02:09Rashid, how do you analyze these results?
02:12Also, the Congress is celebrating.
02:14But this is also, I think, you know, this is a word of caution coming in for the Congress.
02:19The kind of anti-incumbency that the Congress has anticipated at the back of, you know, the chief minister,
02:25incumbent chief minister, Mr. Emil Sharma, one would have thought the Congress could have done better.
02:31Absolutely. Absolutely, Priti. There is no reason to, you know, celebrate or rejoice,
02:36because there should have been a kind of much better performance on the part of Congress.
02:40Actually, Priti, and you know Rajasthan very well, the real problem is about political leadership.
02:45It's about accountability.
02:47You know, probably there was a lot of fight between Ashok Gailot and Sachin Pilot.
02:51And now Pilot is there in, you know, strategizing the election in Punjab,
02:56where he should have been there in the thick of things in Rajasthan,
03:01perhaps as the state president, because Mr. Govindar Tashra has already had, you know, two terms,
03:05almost two terms there.
03:06And there is a problem of, you know, who will be the face,
03:09that Chehra party is very much important for 2028 elections, assembly elections in Rajasthan.
03:15Having said that, I think both sides have reasons to worry,
03:18but the Congress has more reasons to worry.
03:20And I must say that, you know, chhota chanao, mushkil chanao.
03:24You know, it is very difficult to gauge the popular sentiment on the basis of municipal elections,
03:29because Amitabh would vouch for it.
03:31See, the municipal elections are very different from assembly elections,
03:33as assembly elections are very different from Lok Sabha election.
03:36So, this is, in Rajasthan, it's more, you know, it's always very glaring,
03:39because the BJP got a good mandate, then they lost, you know, 12 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan.
03:45So, this is a kind of eye-opener for both political parties.
03:48But for Congress, they need to get a man, you know, in charge of Rajasthan.
03:53And the time is, you know, they're losing out,
03:55because if they can't defeat, you know, a weak chief minister,
04:01then how would you expect, you know, a person of this chanao basundara or someone else was there?
04:06Fair point, fair point, Mr. Kidwai.
04:08Thank you, Mr. Tiwari and Mr. Kidwai, for joining us this evening.
04:12Appreciate it.
04:13We'll have you back on the show.
04:15So, that for us is a breakdown of possibly how Rajasthan voted,
04:18because you've had both competing camps expressing and claiming victory,
04:22but it isn't quite as what it seems.
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