00:00We've seen through the month of September these yields climbing in many parts of the globe, but you think we
00:05might be closer to the end of this move.
00:07What gives you that confidence? Well, there's a lot of cross currents here. So, you know, there's there's the entire
00:12central bank, I think, credibility issue.
00:15Hopefully we do get that Fed rate hike. And I think if Chair Walsh can actually explain that this is
00:20a risk management hike, that this is not, you know, essentially a start of a hiking cycle, I think that
00:26helps.
00:26We get the BOJ. We're expecting a hike and we're expecting, you know, a sense that there'll be more hike.
00:31So I think if the central bank credibility issue can be pushed to the side, then what do we get
00:36around the supply?
00:38I think a lot of this is is supply driven. So, you know, if we get a sense of how
00:42much corporate supply is coming in, if the Treasury can adjust some of its supply,
00:46we do think that they're likely to adjust lower their long end supply. And then really it's oil.
00:51But, you know, I think nobody really has an insight how high oil can go. But this is a stagflationary
00:56shock.
00:57And the fact that every other market now is paying attention gives us some comfort that the tightening in financial
01:03conditions will ultimately make people look at fundamentals
01:06and say if oil prices continue to rise, real rates continue to rise, that's going to have an impact on
01:11the economy.
01:12And as that starts to get priced in, I think people will start to look at Treasuries as adding value.
01:17So I think we're nearing the end. But what the catalyst is, there's a bunch of things that have to
01:22happen.
01:22So I think you have to be really careful about stepping in, you know, sizing. Conviction levels are not that
01:27high.
01:27But I do think we're seeing, you know, back to say, you know, I would say late 2023, we saw
01:34something similar.
01:35I think when risk assets start to pay attention to the rate move, when it's driven by the long end,
01:40it's driven by real rates,
01:41it does tend to say that we're nearing the end.
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